Nov 6

G.fast News: Deutsche Wants a Gigabit, Finally Realizes 50 Meg Isn't Enough,1.6 Gig in Sckipio-Calix Test, Reverse Power 4 Port DSLAM for Australia, Australia Makes it Official: G.fast to Million Plus, 2 Bonded 212 Lines = 3 Gigabits

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Angelina Jolie, Ashley Judd and dozens of others have exposed Harvey Weinstein. Every industry, including ours, has monsters like that, rarely stopped.
    I choose instead to highlight some women who are driving us forward. Nicola Palmer and Sanyogita Sangupta lead Verizon’s 5G effort, the most successful in the world. They will spend $billions and have already put hundreds of cells in the field  
     Verizon jumped ahead when almost all others held back. Charla Rath persuaded the FCC to offer gigahertz of mmWave spectrum three years before the official WRC plan. They supported the NYU work to make a more accurate channel model.
     With allies, VZ created their own 5G standard in 2015 because they didn’t want to wait for 3GPP.  The system commercial in 2018 and will do mobile in 2019 if the handsets are ready.  
     “The race is on” between Verizon and AT&T to be first in each market.10%-20% of people almost everywhere hate their broadband provider and likely to switch to mmWave. The U.S. build is going fast because the two giants expect to find a large market replacing landlines outside of their existing region.
     If they are first in a land grab.


The Shadow CTO shadowcto.com 
Our new site for decision support. The Wireless Troika - More antennas, More spectrum, More cells - is a good way to look at your choices. (Today, 4x4 MIMO antennas and CA to use more spectrum you own. Massive MIMO is working beyond that.) There's a Reality Check on G.fast (deploying at dozens, current speeds ~750 meg per AT&T, second gen chips in 2018 easily a gigabit.)
I thought it might be interesting to consider running a network.


Why AT&T - Time Warner is on Hold
AT&T won't make the concessions the Justice Department staff are demanding. One report is they want a spin-off of HBO; another says it would be CNN. On BellSouth and DirecTV, AT&T bamboozled DC and made almost no real concessions. With Randall Stephenson being one of the very few to publicly support Donald Trump, they expected no problems from the government. The spinoffs mentioned do not make a big difference in the deal. AT&T just doesn't want to give anything. 
Two notes: That AT&T-TW doesn't come under antitrust because it is a vertical merger is bs on the law and the facts. The movie studios were forced to divest the movie theaters in a textbook case, a similar "creation-distribution" situation. AT&T is prominently saying "We are an entertainment company," after the DIrecTV purchase and their video distribution. They are even producing new TV series. So there is a direct conflict.
An insider thinks Trump will insist that AT&T muzzle his critics at CNN. Courage, Randall.

Why Sprint & T-Mobile Didn't Merge
The common story is that testosterone-fueled Masayoshi Son wants power so much he killed the $60B Sprint-T-Mobile deal. A deeper look suggests that DT wasn't willing to pay the price Masa-san wanted to give up control. DT low-balled the offer, thinking Sprint had no choice but to give in. (Craig Moffett's analysis allowed an inference that without the deal Sprint might be insolvent soon.) Masa-san is a brilliant trickster who may yet sell to T-Mobile. The reduced competition would divert perhaps $20B/year from consumers to telcos.


Wireless Network Design: The Troika http://bit.ly/wtroika
The three basic tools for capacity more antennas, more spectrum and more cells. 
     Adding antennas is usually the cheapest choice in 2018. Nearly every telco is going to four (4x4 MIMO.) Adding spectrum is very attractive when you have some unused but expensive if you have to buy it. Adding cells was the approach before LTE-A in 2014 permitted aggregation. Since then, tower building has almost stopped in the developed world. Small cells in targeted areas are coming into fashion, but their numbers will be modest until mmWave.
     Any upgrade should include 256 QAM for more bits per Hz. More http://bit.ly/wtroika

*** "I'm very proud of our new Amendment 3 chipset," says David Baum, CEO, Sckipio. "The performance is breathtaking, Compared to our previous chipset, It delivers four times the vectoring capability, twice the bonding speeds, and supports coordinated DTA for symmetric-like performance in both downstream and upstream." http://bit.ly/2zj8CLY (ad) 

5G Millimeter Wave Reality Check http://bit.ly/RCmmwave
Verizon & Korea are building. NTT DOCOMO & China Mobile are close. Many others are mostly holding back, doing little until 2021-2023.
     2019 is likely for mobile phones, Qualcomm promises chips for retail phones, as TSMC ramps 7 nm process to produce the chips. I expect the early phones will be power hungry and battery short. 
     Latency will be 5-10 milliseconds to the cloud controller intelligence. 1-2 milliseconds will be measured from the tower to the phone, but that's meaningless until and unless intelligence moves to the edge. That's likely very rare for a decade because there's no apparent market for 1 ms. 
     Most "use cases" are bogus according to experts in connected cars, virtual reality, and telemedicine. Gerhard Fettweis's Tactile Internet is inspiring but years or decades away most places. More http://bit.ly/RCmmwave

*** Telefonica Deploys ASSIA’s GPON Expresse Solution
ClearView support for Wi-Fi and Expresse are now available for both DSL & GPON http://bit.ly/2gElPYq (ad) 

G.fast Reality Check http://bit.ly/gfreality
It works and is deployed in dozens of places, including British Telecom and AT&T.
     T reports typical speeds of 750 megabits, up and down combined. The highest speeds go less than 150 meters, which is fine for fiber to the basement. In 2018, 212 MHz chips will double that speed. Plans include 10M homes passed by BT and a million at nbn Australia. Much more, including details of vendors and likely 2018 changes http://bit.ly/gfreality

*** Columbia CITI Nov 17 State of Telecom
Eli Noam and Bob Atkinson have the very best in world telecom to the university for this annual event. It was unmissable for anyone who cared about policy. This year, it's going online, http://bit.ly/2zbfXdv (psa)

Qualcomm claims $trillions of 5G benefits from applications that don't need 5G http://bit.ly/bogustrillions
Steve Mollenkopf's creative engineers produce many of the world's best chips. It's time for him to stop promoting a bogus claim "5G Expected to Create 22 Million Jobs, Produce Up to $12.3 Trillion of Goods and Services by 2035." They offer no evidence or logic that leads to that conclusion. They hired IHS Markit to do a "study" and Berkeley Professor David Teece to sign off on it. 
    The substance of the study is a laundry list of future services, from drones to telemedicine to IoT to VR to Smart Grid. (They provide no source for their estimates of the values of each, but added together they do come to enormous figures.)
     The problem: Nearly none of this requires 5G and the report gives no reason to believe their value-add should be attributed to 5G. Nearly all of them work just fine on LTE or Wi-Fi and do not require 5G 

Verizon's 5G Gear From Texas! Startup http://bit.ly/Texas5G
Farooq Khan says Phazr, his small company near Dallas, can compete with the giants for the millions of 5G small cells soon to deploy. Verizon is listening and is testing the Phazr equipment. Their target was to be ready by the end of 2017.
     Phazr's base station is about two feet high and a foot wide. That's large enough for 384 antennas per sector, three sectors per cell. That's massive, massive MIMO. It's made possible by the very small size of mmWave antennas.
     Phazr's system uses mmWave for the download but ordinary spectrum below 6 GHz for the upload. This has the advantage of requiring much less power in the mobile phone, producing less heat. http://bit.ly/Texas5G

Next Gen Wireless Nov 29. Worth the trip.
Mike Dano and Fierce have put together a one-day event with some of the most interesting people in U.S. wireless. These are the people building the networks, not the salesmen and political silver tongues who plague most events. If I have the travel budget, I'll go myself. The price is very reasonable for a professional event. 
     AT&T is sending Melissa Arnoldi, Verizon Nicola Palmer, T-Mobile Karri Kuoppamakia and Sprint Günther Ottendorfer. Durga Malladi and Nokia’s Mike Murphy. Charter Cable is sending Craig Cowden; anyone who thinks Comcast and Charter aren't serious about 5G is uninformed. (Although buying Sprint may be their ultimate decision. http://bit.ly/2h8v6ob

G.fast News
A remarkable 400 people attended the very strong Broadband Forum BASE events in Berlin and Las Vegas. Trevor confirmed BT would pass the million this year. Cioffi projected “Waveguide DSL” could carry 10 gigabits a kilometer as well as a terabit 100 meters. Werner sees a 4X improvement in upstream with cDTA. Much more in next issue.

Deutsche Wants a Gigabit, Finally Realizes 50 Meg Isn't Enough http://bit.ly/2zeZ5oZ
Deutsche Telekom is finally realizing that 50 megabit DSL won't make it against gigabit cable. VP Franz Seiser is blunt. "We must change radically, become disruptive and, above all, throw away things," he proclaims at BBWF. After years of DT insisting 50 megabits is plenty, we now hear "it is about Gigabit products" from DT's Robert Soukup.  
    A lucky building in Frankfurt will receive 500+ megabit service as ultra-conservative Deutsche Telekom experiments with G.fast. Soukup told BBWF, "We're going to have a field test in Frankfurt with G.fast and Fiber To The Building (FTTB.) We will know by the end of the year if this is the right way to go." Hint to Soukup: Yes it is. G.fast is working well at a dozen telcos I;ve talked to.
     The details are surprising. DT is going for CORD, Open Source, Calix, and Radisys. http://bit.ly/2zeZ5oZ

*** The new Telebyte Guide to Testing Gfast follows the Broadband Forum IR-337 Gfast test specification, the same used by the University of New Hampshire (UNH-IOL) for Gfast certification testing. Free download http://bit.ly/telebyte (ad) It is the best technical guide to G.fast  I have seen. Grab it. Dave

1.6 Gig in Sckipio-Calix Test http://bit.ly/Calix16
A telco tells me they are getting impressive early results from the Calix 48 port DSLAM with the new Sckipio 212 MHz chips. There still is work to do but this is encouraging. 
    Carriers want DSLAMs with more than 16 ports to reduce the deployment costs from the basement or larger field cabinets. Speed matters to the marketing side of the company; AT&T's CEO believes he must offer a true gigabit to match cable. (They've been getting ~750 megabits with first generation chips. http://bit.ly/Calix16

*** Self-Healing Wi-Fi With ASSIA Real-Q 
Beyond-the-Box visibility and control extends quality-of-experience (QoE) beyond the gateway to the end-user device for every device in the home. Based on ASSIA technology, proven across 80 million subscribers http://bit.ly/2dj7FJk (ad)

Reverse Power 4 Port DSLAM for Australia http://bit.ly/NetcommRP
Australia is connecting 1M homes to G.fast, some with a Netcomm distribution point mini-DSLAM. It's a small unit designed for pole or pit mounting. It's waterproof, pressure proof, and temperature resistant. Their matching home modem is bittorrent friendly, with two USB ports for a hard drive dedicated to sharing.
     A reverse power unit at the customer, the NDD-0100-01, can save the cost of bringing power to the DSLAM. They don't expect many orders until the second half of 2018, as nbn is waiting for the second generation chips. Netcomm demonstrated RP with BT Openreach in August. http://bit.ly/NetcommRP

*** Sckipio's Three advances are taking G.fast to the next level.http://bit.ly/Sckipio (ad)

Australia Makes it Official: G.fast to Million Plus http://bit.ly/GFAussie
No news here. In September, 2015, I reported Australia's nbn Going G.fast. This June. I reported the million home fiber to the curb (kerb?) was beginning. Unfortunately, they are no closer to figuring out where to find the needed $10B to $20B to cover the cost overruns. Instead, the parties are battling in Parliament about who is to blame. http://bit.ly/GFAussie

2 Bonded 212 Lines = 3 Gigabits http://bit.ly/twobonded
Sckipio at BBWF is demonstrating 3 gigabits down, nearly a gigabit up, over two phone lines, bonded. Twice the bandwidth (212 MHz instead of 106 MHz) times two lines is fast. Sckipio does great demos; at CES, they showed G.fast first generation chips delivering almost 1 gig upstream.
    “Sckipio is pushing Gfast to astonishing speeds with production silicon,” CEO David Baum proclaims. Calix is using the SCK23000 chipset in their 48 port gig+ DSLAM at the show. http://bit.ly/twobonded

Briefs

  • Carl Russo of Calix was very optimistic on the financial call, reporting increased sales every quarter. The shift of the company to software, especially SDN, is moving well. The losses on deployment services are turning around. In particular, they are more carefully defining what is included in their contracts, thereby controlling costs. That said, losses will continue through Q4. I believe increased Cloud and SDN software sales bode well going forward. Emerging customers Verizon & Deutsche Telekom have great potential.
  • “The silicon for 212 is very immature,” says Steve Collins of Netcomm Wireless, who doesn’t expect it to be ready for a year. He’s working with, and presumably discussing, the Broadcom chip.
  • The Broadband Forum will have their next BASE (Broadband Access Summit Event) in Greece, Bernd Hesse writes. The date isn’t set. 


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Volume 18, #7 Nov 6, 2017Oct 23

G.fast 20 Gigabit DSL - Live Demo http://bit.ly/2xZBUiZ; Calix Showing 48 Port G.fast DSLAM http://bit.ly/calix48; Will BT's 10M G.fast be Fast Enough to Protect the Company? http://bit.ly/2zyt6wJ; 212 MHz Likely Late 2018 http://bit.ly/2y0VaaT

un Zhang and his Chinese telecom colleagues are heroes. They have connected directly to fiber more than 272M homes, twice as much as the entire rest of the world. LTE coverage is 98% and nearly a billion have signed on. Prices are relatively low. 

We all know the nature of the Chinese government but I can also admire the achievements.

A practical problem has kept me in New York rather than the events in Berlin. Please keep your ears open for mail and send it to me, This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it..


AT&T's Possible Dream: "We Will Spend $5B Building Two of the World's Best Networks After Harvey &  Sonoma." http://bit.ly/2gwYh3K
Randall Stephenson, AT&T CEO, did not proclaim, AT&T will spend $5B building one of the world s best networks for Texas and Louisiana. That s our contribution to the recovery after Harvey. He should just do it, now adding North California.
Larry Babbio of Verizon responded that way to the World Trade Center. "Just watch us," he replied to my suggestion Verizon bring fiber to lower Manhattan soon after 9/11. Verizon built Fios.
The fix is reportedly in for the AT&T takeover despite Trump promising, "AT&T is buying Time Warner and thus CNN a deal we will not approve in my administration because it's too much concentration of power in the hands of too few."
A good time for Randall to be a hero. much more http://bit.ly/2gwYh3K

*** "I'm very proud of our new Amendment 3 chipset," says David Baum, CEO, Sckipio. "The performance is breathtaking, Compared to our previous chipset, It delivers four times the vectoring capability, twice the bonding speeds, and supports coordinated DTA for symmetric-like performance in both downstream and upstream." link (ad)

Hundreds of Thousands Go Wireless Only in Tokyo http://bit.ly/2h2Gh2b
Softbank was startled by large signups for fixed wireless in Tokyo, a city with almost 100% coverage of fiber home. T-Mobile in Austria has also seen a trend.
The new customers were primarily young. They wanted a service they could take with them if they changed apartments. The fiber connects and reconnects are a headache.
Softbank has nominal speeds of hundreds of megabits and practical speeds of at least a couple of dozen megabits in most of Tokyo. That is enough for most people, most of the time. more http://bit.ly/2h2Gh2b

*** Make sure to visit Adtran Booth E102 to see important new products. Please join us on Tues 10:05 Werner Heinrich DTA 10:35 Ryan McCowan NGPON2 11:20 Kurt Raaflaub Fiber to the DP without fiber http://bit.ly/fiberno 11:35 Robert Conger NGPON2; Wed 10:30 Ronan Kelly Keynote 14:00 Robert Conger Open Networking 14:20 Gary Bolton Platform Economy 16:50 Heinrich, Chris Thompson, Jeremy Harris (separate panels); Thurs 16:50 McCowen (ad)

Is Google Go-Long the Future of Fiber Home? http://bit.ly/Ggolong
Cedric Lam on Oct 26 will unveil Go-Long. Google thinks "this new standard can reduce the network operating costs and investment costs." The only information is the press release,
Go-Long is the company's new generation of optical access networks. Described by Google as a new Time and Wavelength Division Multiplexed Super PON (TWDM Super PON), the company believes that this new standard can reduce the network operating costs and investment costs. The company claims that the technology can do this by extending the transmission distance, which can reduce the number of central offices that need to deploy the optical line termination (OLT), significantly reducing equipment, space and power costs.
In other words, they ain't saying anything until the announcement at BBWF. http://bit.ly/Ggolong

*** Telefonica Deploys ASSIA�s GPON Expresse Solution
ClearView support for Wi-Fi and Expresse are now available for both DSL & GPON http://bit.ly/2gElPYq (ad)

50G & 100G Ethernet for Backhaul http://bit.ly/2h2S4NV
Huawei has delivered a testable 50G unit to China Mobile and passed testing at the European Advanced Networking Test Center. They also offer a 100 gigabit unit with four 25 gigabit devices. A 2 x 50G unit is planned that will be air-cooled.
Verizon has chosen 40 gigabit NG-PON2 for small cell backhaul, but most other carriers are choosing ten gigabits. Verizon has been testing NGPON2 from Calix and Adtran for a year and is now deploying hundreds of 5G small cells. more http://bit.ly/2h2S4NV

*** Columbia CITI Nov 17 State of Telecom
Eli Noam and Bob Atkinson have the very best in world telecom to the university for this annual event. It was unmissable for anyone who cared about policy. This year, it's going online, http://bit.ly/2zbfXdv (psa)

272M Fiber Connections in China: The Most Remarkable Achievement in My 20 Years of reporting http://bit.ly/2z2sOSs
Jun Zhang, a senior China Telecom engineer, was surprised when this New York reporter called him and his colleagues heroes. They have connected directly to fiber more than 272M homes, twice as much as the entire rest of the world.
There are well over 300M homes passed. 92% of urban homes are covered by fiber. Cities like Shanghai are close to 100% covered. Nearly all the fiber build was done in five years. Prices are relatively low. I am not blind to the authoritarian Chinese state, but I can also admire the achievements. more http://bit.ly/2z2sOSs

Steve Crocker Exiting ICANN Chair http://bit.ly/2la2uj7
Steve writes, "We have term limits for directors, no more than three consecutive three year terms.  I have reached my limit and am leaving the Board." He has been active literally since the beginning of the Internet. He was part of the UCLA team, led by Len Kleinrock, that connected the first Internet node, back in DARPA days. Steve went on to create the RFC system.
The people who built the Internet are still very active, but we're all getting on in years. Steve, Vint Cerf, Dave Clark, and Bob Kahn are all in their seventies. All of them are justly proud and hopeful the Internet will continue to thrive.
Two-thirds of Internet users are not American or European; China is now one-third of the Internet. No one from mainland China has served on the boards of either ICANN or ISOC. ICANN's new board members are both American.
It is time for a Nixon goes to China moment or the old systems are unsustainable. The Chinese and the other BRICS are already building new alternatives more.http://bit.ly/2la2uj7


G.fast News
The best in the business will be at BBWF in Berlin, many speaking at the Broadband Forum event. A practical problem leaves me back in New York, so please listen closely and send me the news.

20 Gigabit DSL - Live Demo http://bit.ly/2xZBUiZ
The meter reads 20 gigabits.  Jack Zhu had just said, "You have to see this," and pulled me over. It was the first demo of Huawei's four port bonded G.mgfast.
Two boxes perhaps five feet apart, were connected by four lines of cat 6 cable. Each line carried 5 gigabits of prestandard G.mgfast.  The total is 20 gigs, They expect that speed to go 30 meters. They are finding good performance out to 100 meters. more and a picture http://bit.ly/2xZBUiZ

*** At Broadband World Forum Berlin, make sure to visit Sckipio in Booth E101B for the latest advances in G.fast. Don't miss our CTO, Rami Verbin, at the Broadband Forum Access Summit. Sckipio, the leader as G.fast deploys around the world, continues to deliver performance.  http://bit.ly/Sckipio (ad)

Calix Showing 48 Port G.fast DSLAM http://bit.ly/calix48
Testing in a major telco lab. The new Sckipio chip allows daisy-chaining 24 port boards for up to 96 ports. (Other approaches require an external vectoring controller.) Calix has wasted no time developing a 48 port DSLAM, showing this week at BBWF.
The new Calix/Sckipio DSLAM also supports "up to 2 gigabits," although it best to think of that as 1.5 gigabits. The cDTA allows near instantaneous switching of an individual subscriber's bandwidth from downstream to upstream, allowing much faster upstream. more http://bit.ly/calix48

*** Two remarkable Broadband Forum Access Summits will feature speakers including Tom  Starr of AT&T and Trevor Linney of BT. In Berlin at BBWF October 24 http://bit.ly/2hZHBWX In Las Vegas before the Calix Connection event October 29 http://bit.ly/2iHz7Dt (psa) See you there

Will BT's 10M G.fast be Fast Enough to Protect the Company? http://bit.ly/2zyt6wJ
BT is close to a million homes passed with G.fast. Trevor Linney is now leading a rapid rollout, on track for 10M in 2020. BT remains at the forefront of G.fast research and is showing impressive technical capability.
At the management level, BT's beleaguered boss Gavin Patterson quietly made a decision that is enormously risky. To save money, he canceled the original plans for a gigabit network with fiber to the distribution point. Instead, BT is putting DSLAMs at the existing cabinets, reducing speeds to 160 or 330 megabits. That's G.halffast.
New chairman Jan du Plessis may sack Gavin, more gossip http://bit.ly/2zyt6wJ

*** The new Telebyte Guide to Testing Gfast follows the Broadband Forum IR-337 Gfast test specification, the same used by the University of New Hampshire (UNH-IOL) for Gfast certification testing. Free download http://bit.ly/telebyte (ad) It is the best technical guide to G.fast  I have seen. Grab it. Dave

212 MHz Likely Late 2018 http://bit.ly/2y0VaaT
Ryan Ding of Huawei is waiting for updated Broadcom firmware, which he expects before the end of the year. He will then be able to supply units for telco trials "in the first half of 2018."
Ding and everyone else are working diligently to get the DSLAMs ready to deploy in volume as soon as possible, I think late 2018 looks most likely. We won't know for sure until we have several months of tests.
Preliminary reports are that both the Sckipio and Broadcom chips are reaching 1.5 gig. more http://bit.ly/2y0VaaT

Briefs

  • �MediaTek�s recovery will take time as its modem technology is still generations behind market leader Qualcomm.� Stuart Robinson, Strategy Analytics The 835 is pulling Qualcomm far ahead.
  • Moore�s Law, by Arnold Thackray, is an authorized biography full of details fascinating to anyone interested in chips. Gordon Moore was there at the beginning, developing diffusion at Shockley, then bringing it into production at Fairchild, supervising the birth of the planar transistor, and leading the industry for so many years. It�s written with Moore�s spirit of frankness and honesty, as well as his deep collaboration. Most of the book is about the technology and industry and is very strong.
  •   

 

Oct 16

CTO Seizo Inoe of NTT last year thought 2022 for mobile 5G. Now it’s 2019 for Verizon’s large network. and Qualcomm’s phone chips. The tech is moving faster than believed by anyone except the “father of millimeter wave,” Ted Rappaport.

  • I’ve built a 5G mmWave map, starting with Verizon and China Mobile. Korea, Japan, and AT&T may be next. Hundreds are in trials but most of them are pr or bogus. Almost all Europeans think the investment won’t pay off. They will do very little without government orders. 'Incentives' are bs. They rarely work.
  • Randall Stephenson should say "AT&T Will Spend $5B Building Two of the World's Best Networks After Harvey & Sonoma." Gov will pay most of it.
  • Netheads had to fight Bellheads for the right to exist 30 years ago. Subtly, the incumbents are striking back. The otherwise fine NGMN roadmap implies the telcos run everything and collect a mileage tax on every car.

Hangzhou tomorrow. Berlin and Las Vegas the next. Say hello to the round fellow with a beard, wearing a black shirt to stand out. 

Huawei and Adtran are paying my expenses. Thank you. 

G.fast News: 10 Gigabits 500 Meters Over Phone Cables?! http://bit.ly/2xHJCch ; Who needs fiber? Backhaul By a Dozen Bonded DSLs http://bit.ly/fiberno ; Bonded 35b Tester From intec http://bit.ly/2ypGyVM ; What Will Broadcom, Huawei, Metanoia & Nokia Bring To Berlin Broadband; Newsbreak: Nokia's Hidden New SX-16F DSLAM

2019! "You’ll see 5G in 2019 for sure" Qualcomm http://bit.ly/qual2019
2019 Mobile 5G Phones! blazes on ads across the trade media from Qualcomm. "You’ll see 5G in 2019 for sure," Qualcomm CEO Steve Mollenkopf promises. Verizon has begun a huge, rapid deployment of mmWave, with hundreds of sites installed. 


Mollenkopf himself thought it would be 2020, but new technology is allowing him to chop a year off the schedule. His main foundry, TSMC, has begun "risk production" of 7 nm chips, the next generation. It's reasonable to expect volume production in 2019. TSMC is taking delivery in 2018 on $150M EUV machines to improve critical layers. Steve is going for 2019 because he can.

Verizon will be ready to serve mobile 5G "as soon as phones are available." China Mobile and AT&T are also looking to build early. They will be expensive and probably power hogs, but a true gigabit should be possible. ("Gig LTE" will usually be 75-300 megabits to the customer, per Qualcomm.) http://bit.ly/qual2019

*** "I'm very proud of our new Amendment 3 chipset," says David Baum, CEO, Sckipio. "The performance is breathtaking, Compared to our previous chipset, It delivers four times the vectoring capability, twice the bonding speeds, and supports coordinated DTA for symmetric-like performance in both downstream and upstream." link (ad) 

Algeria Fibering 1M. Fiber Ain't Dead http://bit.ly/AKfiber
AT&T is fibering 3M homes/year. Telefonica doing millions in Brazil and most of Spain. France Telecom is well along and nearly all of Portugal covered. Bell Canada recently decided to speed up fiber because cable was killing them. 


After a year of political wrangling, state-owned Algérie Telecom has signed a contract with Huawei and is ready to go. The initial contract is 1M homes servable, with a plan to go to 3M. Wireless networks spread incredibly rapidly across Africa and now fiber (mostly backbone) is also building. http://bit.ly/AKfiber

*** Make sure to visit Adtran Booth E102 to see important new products. Please join us on Tues 10:05 Werner Heinrich DTA 10:35 Ryan McCowan NGPON2 11:20 Kurt Raaflaub Fiber to the DP without fiber http://bit.ly/fiberno 11:35 Robert Conger NGPON2; Wed 10:30 Ronan Kelly Keynote 14:00 Robert Conger Open Networking 14:20 Gary Bolton Platform Economy 16:50 Heinrich, Chris Thompson, Jeremy Harris (separate panels); Thurs 16:50 McCowen (ad) 

NGMN Has Defined a Wireless Future - by the Telcos http://bit.ly/Bellheads
20 top telcos banded together to set a common path for the next thirty years. China Mobile, Deutsche Telekom, AT&T and many others have now produced the NGMN 5G End-to-End Architecture Framework O.8.1. The 36 pages are a blueprint of how the telcos want the future. They've done an extraordinary job making the concepts clear to anyone knowledgeable in today's wireless. 


This is the antithesis of the Internet model, a network of networks connected but operating independently. Implicitly, everything would be under the control of the telcos. They would have standard procedures to work together for international traffic, based on everyone having common QoS control.

Almost no one is noticing. The Bellheads are striking back. http://bit.ly/Bellheads

*** CloudCheck® Wi-Fi optimization platform enables visibility, control, and self-healing of residential Wi-Fi networks. Our new Mobile APP for Service Providers  provides a set of powerful and easy-to-use performance and install assist diagnostics tools for field techs.www.assia-inc.com (ad)

Why are 3 Indian Survivors Spending $B's on Massive MIMO? http://bit.ly/JndiaMass
Competition is fierce and spectrum is short, Reliance Jio spent $20B, built one of the best networks in the world, and gained 100M customers in the first year. Mukesh Ambani's aggressive plans for the 4G $20 (refundable) feature phone will probably add 100M more in the next year or so. Hundreds of millions of Indians are still on 2G. Ambani is ready to spend $B+ in subsidies to bring them to Jio 4G. 


Giant Tata is closing their #4 mobile network, putting 10,000 out of work, writing off billions, and selling off cheaply to Bharti.. #5 Reliance Communications, Ambani's brother's company, is likely to follow. They couldn't compete in the price war. Vodafone and Idea, #2 & #3, are merging to stay alive  

#1 Bharti's strategy in response includes a huge build of Massive MIMO. The other two likely survivors, Jio and Vodafone/Idea, will also do Massive. much more http://bit.ly/JndiaMass

*** At Broadband World Forum Berlin, make sure to visit Sckipio in Booth E101B for the latest advances in G.fast. Don't miss our CTO, Rami Verbin, at the Broadband Forum Access Summit. Sckipio, the leader as G.fast deploys around the world, continues to deliver performance.  http://bit.ly/Sckipio (ad)

5G Maps http://bit.ly/5Gmaps
5G is here, Verizon has installed "hundreds": of mmWave cells, per CEO Lowell McAdam. I am  trusting that China Mobile is also starting. Time to create a 5G mmWave map. 


Massive MIMO is expanding rapidly. Softbank in Japan and China Mobile are installing thousands of towers. I predict huge growth in M MIMO in 2018 & 2019. Korea Telecom is building rapidly a system along Highway 50, ready to astound the world at the Olympics in February. 

I don't include “tests” or "trials," of which there are hundreds. Too much is pr. Countries only go on these maps when I'm confident they are building and ready to serve customers. Updates and improvements very welcome: http://bit.ly/5Gmaps

Stories not here:
Why Verizon is rushing to 5G mmWave ** Qualcomm makes  great chips but Taiwan is right on unreasonable royalties. ** AT&T wants > 10 ms. 1 ms is likely far away. ** EU moving ahead on 25 year licenses as monopoly spectrum is becoming obsolete. Dumb. ** India’s fiber to 250,000  villages is growing. ** Totally wasteful $3B subsidy for AT&T LTE ** $20B fabs from TSMC and Samsung protect Moore’s Law to ~2025

*** Columbia CITI Nov 17 State of Telecom
Eli Noam and Bob Atkinson have ther very best in world telecom to the university for this annual event. It was unmissable for anyone who cared about policy. This year, it's going online, http://bit.ly/2zbfXdv (psa)

G.fast News
Some of the best in the industry will be at the Broadband Forum’s BASE in Berlin and Germany and BBWF in Berlin. See you there.


10 Gigabits 500 Meters Over Phone Cables?! http://bit.ly/2xHJCch
John Cioffi theorizes that 1 Terabit/s over 100m is possible. Several world-class engineers have confirmed the theory appears correct. The same higher-order waveguide modes could deliver 10 Gbps at 500 meters, which is exciting some of the most important companies in the industry. It could drastically reduce the cost of backhauling 5G small cells in the required millions of locations. 


Some are using the name Surface Wave over Copper (SWoC) instead of TDSL as the system moves closer to test. Building a test system and proving the real challenges can be met will be expensive. The frequencies involved are at 50 GHz and higher, 200 times higher than the new 212 MHz G.fast. http://bit.ly/2xHJCch

*** At Broadband World Forum Berlin, make sure to visit Sckipio in Booth E101B for the latest advances in G.fast. Don't miss our CTO, Rami Verbin, at the Broadband Forum Access Summit. Sckipio, the leader as G.fast deploys around the world, continues to deliver performance.  http://bit.ly/Sckipio (ad)

Who needs fiber? Backhaul By a Dozen Bonded DSLshttp://bit.ly/fiberno
12 bonded lines of 35b VDSL should be able to deliver 2 gig downstream ~400 meters. That's comparable to the most common G.fast backhaul, 2.4 gig GPON. Telcos are confident few will use the high speeds simultaneously so the high over-subscription is realistic. Upstream on the older DSLs is lower, so the upstream will probably be limited.


Kurt Raaflaub says Adtran has trial units at customers. As far as I know, this is the first public description of bonded 35b and I hadn't anticipated this possible use. Deutsche Telekom says 35b will be ready for deployment the second half of 2018. http://bit.ly/fiberno

*** Two remarkable Broadband Forum Access Summits will feature speakers including Tom  Starr of AT&T and Trevor Linney of BT. In Berlin at BBWF October 24 http://bit.ly/2hZHBWX In Las Vegas before the Calix Connection event October 29 http://bit.ly/2iHz7Dt (psa) See you there


Bonded 35b Tester From intec http://bit.ly/2ypGyVM
intec and Adtran have working parts for testing bonding. 35b uses double the spectrum for double the speed, 200+ megabits at 500 meters. It's not ready for the field yet, but test gear is now available from the German firm intec.  Look for them at the Broadband Forum Interop exhibit.


Jeff Waldhuter of Verizon told me not investing in testing was the biggest mistake they made in the early days of DSL. BBWF will also feature Lincoln Lavoie, who has led the UNH/Broadband Forum testing for years. You can now buy the testing software they use for your own work. UNH uses Telebyte hardware, who will speak at the show. http://bit.ly/2ypGyVM

*** Make sure to visit Adtran Booth E102 to see important new products. Please join us on Tues 10:05 Werner Heinrich DTA 10:35 Ryan McCowan NGPON2 11:20 Kurt Raaflaub Fiber to the DP without fiber http://bit.ly/fiberno 11:35 Robert Conger NGPON2; Wed 10:30 Ronan Kelly Keynote 14:00 Robert Conger Open Networking 14:20 Gary Bolton Platform Economy 16:50 Heinrich, Chris Thompson, Jeremy Harris (separate panels); Thurs 16:50 McCowen (ad) 

What Will Broadcom, Huawei, Metanoia & Nokia Bring To Berlin Broadband http://bit.ly/BBWFWHO
Companies time releases for BBWF, the biggest event of the year. Here are some possibilities for the companies that haven't provided me news yet.


Huawei will brief me at their Hangzhou event this week. For now, I know the 96 port external vectoring boxes are doing well in customer labs and probably ready. Two telcos were impressed.

(Huawei, Calix, and Adtran are very generous with the press, hosting regular events. All three do a good job trying to answer questions when they can. The result is they get far more coverage. I make a point of reaching out to those who tell me less, including writing this as a reminder.) 

Metanoia is the third G.fast chipmaker that joins the UNH interops. Nokia and Broadcom have yet to speak so I make a few guesses. http://bit.ly/BBWFWHO

*** The new Telebyte Guide to Testing Gfast follows the Broadband Forum IR-337 Gfast test specification, the same used by the University of New Hampshire (UNH-IOL) for Gfast certification testing. Free download http://bit.ly/telebyte (ad) It is the best technical guide to G.fast  I have seen. Grab it. Dave

Newsbreak: Nokia's Hidden New SX-16F DSLAM
Buried deep in an SDAN announcement is a mention of a Lightspan SX-16F. They call it  "The world's first 16-port reverse-powered G.fast micro-node which can be safely reverse-powered from the home." No more details available at press time.

*** Two remarkable Broadband Forum Access Summits will feature speakers including Tom  Starr of AT&T and Trevor Linney of BT. In Berlin at BBWF October 24 http://bit.ly/2hZHBWXIn Las Vegas before the Calix Connection event October 29 http://bit.ly/2iHz7Dt (psa) See you there

Broadband Forum BASE: Berlin Oct 24 Las Vegas October 29
Free BASE? Yes, no charge to hear 30 of the most informed people in the industry/  Trevor Linney of BT, who tells me they are pas 550,000 homes, a million are close, and the build to ten million is going well. David Titus and Tom Starr of AT&T, moving aggressively to buildings across the U.S.Vincent O'Bryne of Verizon, the leading proponent of NG-PON2. 

See you there. Look for the round fellow with a beard and point me to news I missed.

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Volume 18, #5 Oct 16, 2017

Oct 8

G.fast: Randall's Xmas: 144 Gigabits, 212 MHz, 96 Port, DTA http://bit.ly/150gig; More Gear Passes Interop at UNH http://bit.ly/unterop; More Gear Passes Interop at UNH http://bit.ly/unteropl Broadband Forum BASE Berlin Oct 24, Las Vegas Oct 29 http://bit.ly/2yTO7l9;

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This is not a test.

Lowell McAdam of Verizon has "100's of mmWave cell sites up and operating," he told us at Goldman Sachs September 13, 2017. This is the true dawn of 5G mmWave. I expect thousands more in 2018 and tens of thousands in 2019-20.

AT&T CEO Randall Stephenson promised America, �A ubiquitous gigabit in the next few years.� �Gig LTE� is puffery but even 100-300 megabits everywhere is historic.

India�s Sunil Mittal has turned on Massive MIMO at Bharti. Test speeds on Massive MIMO are almost a gigabit on 20 MHz (shared.) Ericsson�s Nishant Batra expects 100 MHz systems in 2018, with likely peak speeds well into the gigabits. Three other Indian giants are also going Massive

Imagine what the Internet will be like when tens of millions have a true gigabit mobile. Lowell believes, �It's on our doorstep.�

How will we bring this to (almost) everyone worldwide?

Say hello at Huawei Hongzhou next week, then Berlin Broadband Forum and BBWF, and the Forum�s Access Summit in Las Vegas. I�m a round fellow with a beard. G.fast News, below, features AT&T�s enthusiasm for the new 1.5 Gigabit G.fast chips and reverse power.

Verizon: "100's of mmWave Cells Installed" http://bit.ly/5Gisnow
September 13's announcement by Lowell McAdam will go down in history as the date of the first real 5G mmWave deployment. True speeds of a gigabit are possible, rather than the 100-300 megabits more common with "Gig LTE."

"We literally have hundreds of cell sites that we have up and operating and 8 markets moving to 11 markets. ... this platform is not two or three years out the way it was a year ago, it's on our doorstep and I think it's going to be huge."

Verizon needs 5G more than any other company on Earth. Its business model is based on being better and able to charge a premium price. AT&T and especially T-Mobile have caught up in important ways.  More http://bit.ly/5Gisnow

*** "I'm very proud of our new Amendment 3 chipset," says David Baum, CEO, Sckipio. "The performance is breathtaking, Compared to our previous chipset, It delivers four times the vectoring capability, twice the bonding speeds, and supports coordinated DTA for symmetric-like performance in both downstream and upstream." link (ad)

95% 4G LTE For Myanmar? Yes! http://bit.ly/2yLtebD
MYTEL, the new fourth company, has promised 4G to 95% within three years, investing well over $1B. They will launch their 4G-only network with 7K base stations across most of the country early in 2018.  The wireless explosion in Myanmar is almost miraculous. Six years ago, fewer than 1% had mobile phones. Today, Bloomberg estimates 90% are connected.

90% to 95% LTE coverage is rapidly becoming common across the developing world. Reliance Jio will cover 95% of India soon. The U.S. officially is over 99% LTE, although some think the figure is high.

Government owned networks are increasingly important. Viettel will own 49% of MYTEL. The remaining 51% will be split between MEC and local companies. MEC is controlled by the Myanmar military and Viettel by the Vietnamese government. Today, ~3/4ths of new wired broadband connections are on government-controlled networks, led by the Chinese. More, including a comment on the Myanmar military, http://bit.ly/2yLtebD

*** CloudCheck� Wi-Fi optimization platform enables visibility, control, and self-healing of residential Wi-Fi networks. Our new Mobile APP for Service Providers  provides a set of powerful and easy-to-use performance and install assist diagnostics tools for field techs. www.assia-inc.com (ad)

Historic Promise: AT&T Soon Will Offer "1 Gig Speeds Ubiquitously." Mostly True http://bit.ly/GigForAll
Randall Stephenson, AT&T CEO, told us at Goldman date "Over the next few years you get 1 gig speeds ubiquitously." AT&T's actual plan doesn't go that far but is remarkable. Some percentage of the country - ?5-15% - will not be covered. The "gig" will be 75 to 300 megabits down, most times and most places. That's not too shabby by any standard and a huge jump over the 5 meg to 25 meg speeds most common on U.S. LTE networks. Randall sees truth like a politician.

In wireless, I assume he mostly is planning "Gig LTE." In certain test conditions, that does deliver close to a gig. In the real world, the best analysis available indicates speeds will usually be a quarter gig or less. (Article coming.) The other three six big U.S. and Canadian carriers have similar plans. So do major carriers in Myanmar, India, and many other places.

On the wired side, AT&T is adding about 3M homes passed with GPON each year, which delivers a true gigabit down and 500+ meg up. Within about five years, 30-50% iof AT&T homes will be able to get 800+ meg downstream, close enough to a gig for most practical purposes. That will include 15M+ with fiber home.  More http://bit.ly/GigForAll

*** Two remarkable Broadband Forum Access Summits will feature speakers including Tom  Starr of AT&T and Trevor Linney of BT. In Berlin at BBWF October 24 http://bit.ly/2hZHBWX In Las Vegas before the Calix Connection event October 29 http://bit.ly/2iHz7Dt (psa) See you there

99.5% U.S. LTE? 98%? 96% http://bit.ly/2fYbfr9
Senator Schumer wants $40B to the many millions he thinks can't get broadband. Pai has $4B in the pipeline for areas without 4G. Totally political and likely to waste $billions. LTE is at 10-25 meg today and AT&T promises a "ubiquitous gigabit." Coverage isn't perfect but there aren't that many populated gaps.

The growth of LTE networks continues to astonish even those of us who meekly predicted near-ubiquity as far back as 2009, US Telecom's Pat Brogan estimates LTE coverage at 99.5% of the population, based on company data reported to the FCC. Both Verizon and AT&T claim 98% coverage and T-Mobile almost as high. They have different unserved areas, so 99.5% amongst them is plausible.

The real figure may be as low as 95-96% because coverage data is notoriously unreliable, with companies having incentives to inflate claims. I remember AT&T telling the FCC a while back the FCC didn;t need to test wireless availability because the companies could provide accurate maps. I checked AT&T's map of Manhattan and saw it claimed as 100% covered. I live here, and at the time was hearing numerous complaints of deadspots. http://bit.ly/2fYbfr9

*** Columbia CITI Nov 17 State of Telecom
Eli Noam and Bob Atkinson have ther very best in world telecom to the university for this annual event. It was unmissable for anyone who cared about policy. This year, it's going online, http://bit.ly/2zbfXdv (psa)

Ericsson: FDD Massive MIMO Ready, Not Just TDD http://bit.ly/2wAJueU
Time Division Duplexing has dominated Massive MIMO, including the thousands of cells at China Mobile and Softbank. Most telco spectrum is dedicated to Frequency Division Duplexing.

Massive MIMO inventor Tom Marzetta was skeptical about the performance of Massive MIMO using FDD (Frequency Division Duplex) rather than TDD (Time Division.) Massive MIMO requires regular and robust reporting from the cell phone, which they feared would be impractical with FDD.

Huawei, ZTE, and now Ericsson have done field trials they believe prove otherwise.  In trial with T-Mobile. Nishant Batra is confident many antenna Massive MIMO will add to performance in FDD frequencies as well as the TDD frequencies beginning to widely deploy.  I'm waiting for performance data, however.

Batra expects 3 carrier, 60 MHz TDD Massive MIMO in early 2018. Batra expects 100 MHz Massive MIMO by yearend 2018. http://bit.ly/2wAJueU

====================================
G.fast News - AT&T Sees 1.5 Gigabits
Eric Small of AT&T tells Sean Buckley �In generation 2, you get about 1.5 Gbps of throughput,� confirming what the vendors promise. �Not that you would use more than a gig in either direction, but it gives you the flexibility to use a gig in one direction and 500 Mbps in the other direction.�

He adds, ��The really interesting part of the second generation of Gfast is it allows for reverse powering, which means the power could come from the individual subscribers.� Fierce Telecom http://bit.ly/2yajjiW

Randall's Xmas: 144 Gigabits, 212 MHz, 96 Port, DTA From Sckipio http://bit.ly/150gig
Randall Stephenson at AT&T "needs 1 gig speeds."and promises "1 gig speeds ubiquitously."  http://bit.ly/GigForAll Sckipio is ready with 212 MHz Amendment 3 chips soon to sample to selected customers - including AT&T suppliers. Using 212 MHz of spectrum almost doubles the capacity of G.fast, reaching close to 2 gigabits between upstream and downstream in lab conditions.

96 ports at 1.5 gigabits is 144 gigabits. It should be achievable over the short loops typical in apartment buildings, although they will nearly actually all be a maximum. Adtran and Huawei have demo'd external boxes that can vector 48-96 ports, but Sckipio does not require the complexity of external vectoring. Instead, the first DSLAM supports 24 or 48 ports and can be daisy-chained with others on demand. This reduces the initial capex. cDTA allows switching between upstream and downstream for each line. Much more http://bit.ly/150gig

*** The new Telebyte Guide to Testing Gfast follows the Broadband Forum IR-337 Gfast test specification, the same used by the University of New Hampshire (UNH-IOL) for Gfast certification testing. Free download http://bit.ly/telebyte (ad) It is the best technical guide to G.fast  I have seen. Grab it. Dave

More Gear Passes Interop at UNH http://bit.ly/unterop
Lincoln Lavoie sees "cross chipset interoperability and performance at all levels including device software for management and control." Gear with chips from Broadcom, Metanoia, and Sckipio are working with each other at a good speed, usually 600 megabits or higher. EXFO and Viavi testers also passed.

He adds, "Gfast testing has already been more rigorous than any previous certification testing and we are testing individual features more deeply than we have on any previous technology."Interoperability" is considered to mean working reasonably together, not necessarily at maximum performance levels. http://bit.ly/unterop

*** At Broadband World Forum Berlin, make sure to visit Sckipio in Booth E101B for the latest advances in G.fast. Don't miss our CTO, Rami Verbin, at the Broadband Forum Access Summit. Sckipio, the leader as G.fast deploys around the world, continues to deliver performance.  http://bit.ly/Sckipio (ad)

Tom Starr, Trevor Linney Headline Berlin Oct 24 http://bit.ly/2g70Mx8
Linney is deploying G.fast past ten million British Telecom homes, with more connecting daily. Trevor, speaking for BT, has always been open about the practical results. Starr has led DSL standards and the Forum for 25 years, seen it all and done it all. AT&T is moving aggressively on G.fast from basements around the U.S., so he too will have lessons from the field.

The new Broadband Forum Access Summit is free. Register through the BBWF website at http://bit.ly/2fXnyYg. BBWF registration on site wasn't free last I looked so make sure to register in advance. The Forum is doing a sister event in Las Vegas on Sunday, October 29th. See you at both. Look for the round fellow with a beard. After Robin Mersh opens the event, Roland Montagne of iDATE, a respected analyst, will review deployments around the world. http://bit.ly/2g70Mx8 See you there

Broadband Forum BASE Las Vegas October 29 http://bit.ly/2yTO7l9
Reverse power. DTA. Profile 212. Now is the time to start taking advantage of the advanced features, as deployments are approaching one million homes passed. Registration is free at http://bit.ly/2iHz7Dt. See you there. Look for the round fellow with a beard. David Titus of AT&T will present details from their nationwide G.fast effort. http://bit.ly/2yTO7l9

*** Self-Healing Wi-Fi With ASSIA Real-Q
Beyond-the-Box visibility and control extends quality-of-experience (QoE) beyond the gateway to the end-user device for every device in the home. Based on ASSIA technology, proven across 80 million subscribers http://bit.ly/2dj7FJk (ad)

Scared By Cable, Bell Canada Chooses Fiber Over G.fast http://bit.ly/BellCa
Better TV software long kept Bell's DSL ahead of cable, but both Shaw and Rogers are now deploying Comcast's respected X1 software and will likely catch up. CEO Cope hinted to Wall Street he has little choice but to find the necessary capital.

G.fast was considered until very recently but Bell decided to accelerate their fiber home. They have done  most of Montreal and are working on Toronto. http://bit.ly/BellCa

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Volume 18, #4 Oct 8, 2017

August 27

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G.fast: AT&T: Millions of G.fast Lines Coming. Now Starting Buildings Outside of Territory http://bit.ly/ATTout; Here Comes 5 & 10 Gigabit G.mgfast; 424 and 848 MHz http://bit.ly/gmgfast ; Stanton of Adtran: G.fast Will Be Even Faster, But Not Yet http://bit.ly/gfaster ; Broadcom's 212 MHz Exists http://bit.ly/Broad212 Update: I'll have test data next issue; 1.6 Gig 212 MHz ZTE/NetCologne Demo http://bit.ly/ZTENC212; Broadcom Bummer: Blocked By Berlin Ban http://bit.ly/Broadbum; Tamboli: "2019 Will Be The Year of G.fast" http://bit.ly/GF2019; 2019 Deutsche Telekom G.fast Build is On http://bit.ly/DTgfast below


25,000 jobs are going at Ericsson, a tragedy. 70,000 cuts are in process at AT&T. Please don’t shoot me for the message. Blame the engineers who are improving gear faster than demand is growing. 

AT&T with 140,000 employees rather than 210,000 still will be a giant, even if profits are only $10B instead of $20B. Let all live long and prosper but it’s time to accept that telecom is a shrinking industry. China Telecom is still growing but even they are cutting capex by 8%. 

Low prices are great for consumers but brutal for the people involved. Rapidly improved technology often devastates workers. Most Thai farmers suffered when miracle rice doubled production and English textile workers suffered in the time of great satanic mills. 

-----------
A special policy issue will begin: Microsoft President Brad Smith was wrong claiming "Today 23.4 million Americans in rural areas still lack broadband internet access." The figures are from 2014. Probably half of them are now connected with LTE ...  Or should I say "Brad Smith lied?" Why does Germany have some of the slowest connections in Europe? How much of the $8B spent on U.S. rural subsidies was wasted? Has India found a way to connect 300M villagers? I’ll do my best to get close to the truth. 

-------------
The Samsung 8 and a half dozen other phones with the Qualcomm 835 support Gig LTE. It’s really “Quarter Gig,” with likely speeds 100-300 megabits. That’s still darn good. More than two dozen telcos will hype Gig LTE networks soon, including all three in Korea and all four in the U.S. 

Huawei is close to a prototype of a 2 Gig LTE phone, using 5 20 MHz bands compared to the 3 bands common today. 

--------------
AT&T's G.fast project is moving rapidly, although Verizon and Bell Canada are going with fiber home & wireless. A <well-informed source> tells me Germany is jumping in with G.fast in 2019. BT has already passed 500,000 homes, with a million due by the end of the year. Australia will do a million as well.

5G: Comcast, Liberty Most Serious About mmWave http://bit.ly/Cable5G
The gleam in Rob's eye says he wants to go ahead. "We have more fiber than anyone else," Rob Howald of Comcast claims, adding, "We and all the others in cable have deployed fiber deeply throughout our networks. That will give us a crucial advantage in 5G mmWave." Howald was very clear that no decision has been made to go forward, although he was obviously enthused about the technology. It's not news that cablecos are looking, but I was amazed at how advanced the preparations are. 

Balan Nair at Liberty Global, the largest international, a few months ago was deeply skeptical of building his own network. Now, he tells WSJ,  "We have fiber to many neighborhoods." Stu Woo points out, "The company has utility cabinets in neighborhoods already connected to power, which would allow the company -- or a mobile-carrier partner -- to quickly set up a 5G cellular site there."

A few days later, I saw  Howald hold up a chart of 5G coverage simulations. Their current fiber allows mmWave to more than half the area studied and they are driving fiber deeper. I've confirmed U.S. #2, Charter, is thinking similarly. The final decision is a couple of years away, but the engineers are enthusiastic about the challenge.http://bit.ly/Cable5G

*** At Broadband World Forum Berlin, make sure to visit Sckipio in Booth E101B for the latest advances in G.fast. Don't miss our CTO, Rami Verbin, at the Broadband Forum Access Summit. Sckipio, the leader as G.fast deploys around the world, continues to deliver performance.  http://bit.ly/Sckipio (ad)

Ericsson Cutting 25K Jobs http://bit.ly/Eric25K
Svenska Dagbladet report not denied. Every large telco vendor outside of China has been suffering for several years, although Ericsson maintained an illusion until recently. Ericsson and Nokia remain remarkable companies with world-class engineers, but it's a tough business. An Ericsson exec in India estimates the world market is going down currently at ~5%/year. 

Official details are limited. Ericsson claims the cuts "do not include R&D." Neither Ericsson nor Nokia can cut research. They face Huawei, with an R&D budget larger than the combined spending of Ericsson, Nokia, and whomever you place third. All three have great products, but Huawei's greater research budget is allowing them to outflank others with a wider product line. 

The service division is the largest target. It's probably been losing money for several years but that's been buried in the financials. The video division, built up by spending billions, is on the block. That includes what once was Microsoft's IPTV.http://bit.ly/Eric25K

*** The new Telebyte Guide to Testing Gfast follows the Broadband Forum IR-337 Gfast test specification, the same used by the University of New Hampshire (UNH-IOL) for Gfast certification testing. Free download http://bit.ly/telebyte (ad) It is the best technical guide to G.fast  I have seen. Grab it. Dave

Q2 U.S.: Every Telco Goes Down http://bit.ly/Q2USdown
Cable up to 64% of the market. For a decade, telcos held on to 45% of the market in the U.S. But AT&T and Verizon haven't upgraded almost half their lines, planning to go wireless only to 10's of millions of homes. (One network is cheaper than two.) The other U.S telcos have done even less, keeping dividends far higher than earnings and skimping on capex.

Customers are fleeing DSL networks that often are ten and fifteen years old. The U.S. has cable to 92%, with most offering 50 megs standard. Comcast's primary offering is 100 megabits and they just extended a gig of DOCSIS 3.1 to Boston and Philadelphia. Frontier lost 101,000 subs and Century 77,000. Verizon's once world-leading fiber network wasn't  to prevent a loss of 23,000 customers. The saddest story is AT&T. They have added 5M lines of fiber the last two years and spent $67B on DirecTV, seeking an expanded customer base. Despite that, they lost 9,000 customers http://bit.ly/Q2USdown

*** Self-Healing Wi-Fi With ASSIA Real-Q 
Beyond-the-Box visibility and control extends quality-of-experience (QoE) beyond the gateway to the end-user device for every device in the home. Based on ASSIA technology, proven across 80 million subscribers http://bit.ly/2dj7FJk (ad)

Cox 40% Gigified in 2017 (Correction) http://bit.ly/Cox40gig
All 6M Cox customers should have a gig available by the end of 2019.  Correction: I had reported that Cox had intended to offer a gig to all in 2016. I believed that was a commitment to a consumer priced DOCSIS 3.1 service. I was wrong. Cox did have a near-universal gigabit offering, but it was a business priced dedicated fiber, ($thousands, I believe.)  

Todd Smith of Cox writes, "DOCSIS 3.1 is live now with employees and we will begin deploying to customers in some markets later this year. 40 percent of the households we serve nationwide will have access to Gigabit speeds by the end of 2017." Cox Vice President Philip Nutsugah tells Mari Sibley, "The company plans to reach the rest of its customers (or at least 99% of them) with gigabit broadband by the end of 2019."

50M home giant Comcast expects, "DOCSIS 3.1 across the majority of its footprint by year-end." http://bit.ly/Cox40gig

16+ Megabit White Space Radios Reaching the Field http://bit.ly/WS16meg
I believe this is the first report anywhere of more than 10 megabits to customers.  Michael Davies and Richard Yu of 6Harmonics in Ottawa have sent me test data showing customers with a connection phy rate of 16-18 megabits, as well as convincing details from other deployments doing better than that. I thank Boston Consulting Group for pushing me to go beyond published reports and get these new results. The fuzzy photo below shows eight users connected to a base station using a single 6 MHz channel. They have deployments in California and North Carolina using two channels for nearly double the speed. High speed uplink is included.

They are ready with a three channel unit for even higher speeds. Yu has been working on multiple antenna systems (MIMO) for almost 20 years. I'm sure he can achieve even better throughput using more antennas. They seem to be so busy actually building the equipment they haven't had time to get the latest results up on their web site. CEO Yu, off the record, shared remarkable predictions for what they will offer within a year. http://bit.ly/WS16meg

*** Two remarkable Broadband Forum Access Summits will feature speakers including Tom  Starr of AT&T and Trevor Linney of BT. 
In Berlin at BBWF October 24 https://tmt.knect365.com/bbwf/agenda/1/grid
In Las Vegas before the Calix Connection event October 29 http://bit.ly/2iHz7Dt (psa) No charge

DragonWave Quenched, Alas http://bit.ly/DWGone
Huawei and Adtran are perhaps the only consistently profitable companies as overall sales continue to fall. DragonWave, a microwave pioneer, couldn't overcome industry problems. Ex-CEO Peter Allen is one of the go-to people in mobile backhaul. He built DragonWave up to 150M in sales in 2015, although profitability has long lagged. Two years later, three-quarters of those sales are gone. Creditors forced the company into receivership. Allen and the other directors resigned.

James Bagnell has a thoughtful report on what happened. Half of DragonWave's sales had come through a deal with Nokia. They disappeared when Nokia bought Alcatel and switched to Alcatel microwave gear.  Technical problems killed the company's sales in fast-growing India. Allen ran out of options for raising money for a comeback. The remarkable success of Wi-Fi backhaul, especially Ubiquiti, is reducing demand for traditional microwave gear. http://bit.ly/DWGone

Irrelevancy: If you want to reduce your risk of heart attacks, read Kathiresan and Topol on Genomics of Heart Disease http://wb.md/2fdDW6o. Two world-class researchers speaking informally. You won’t be surprised that exercise and weight loss are important, but there was a lot here new to me. Separately, the data from 521,000 people is persuasive in Coffee Drinking and Mortality in 10 European Countries: A Multinational Cohort Study http://bit.ly/2iIFoPE


G.fast News

AT&T's decision tells the world G.fast is ready to go. Deutsche Telecom intends to join them in 2019, according to a source I trust enough to print the story. Verizon, citing a history of VDSL interop problems, will go with a little bit more fiber and especially their $20B 5G mmWave project rather than G.fast. Bell Canada recently decided it would be all fiber home from here, as Shaw and Rogers cablecos become aggressive.

AT&T: Millions of G.fast Lines Coming. Now Starting Buildings Outside of Territory http://bit.ly/ATTout
T plans much bigger splash in territory starting soon as well. Large buildings and groups are being fought over hard by AT&T, Verizon, Comcast, and others. Verizon brought Fios fiber to this market almost a decade ago, as did local independents. Comcast is offering gigabit coax, which it is soon offering to all ~40M homes as well. 

AT&T jumped in more recently, led by Ed Balcerzak of their DirecTV division. DirecTV has millions of lines of coax bringing TV from rooftop antennas, a natural opportunity for broadband. Reporters see the new announcement as the kickoff of a major move with G.fast. In selected neighborhoods of ~65% of the U.S., AT&T will consider running fiber to the basement or WTTR - Wireless to the Rooftop - plus G.fast at 500 megabits.http://bit.ly/ATTout

*** The new Telebyte Guide to Testing Gfast follows the Broadband Forum IR-337 Gfast test specification, the same used by the University of New Hampshire (UNH-IOL) for Gfast certification testing. Free download http://bit.ly/telebyte (ad) It is the best technical guide to G.fast  I have seen. Grab it. Dave

Here Comes 5 & 10 Gigabit G.mgfast; 424 and 848 MHz http://bit.ly/gmgfast
"Multi-Gigabit Fast Access to Subscriber Terminals" is a new proposed ITU standard. 2020 is the target date for deployments. Jochen Maes of Alcatel/Nokia has been bringing his prototype 5 & 8 gigabit systems around the world since 2014, impressing telcos from Germany to Australia. He uses more frequencies, full duplex signalling, and other optimizations to get extraordinary performance. Adtran's simulations are that 4 gigabits can go ~75 meters using 424 MHz. 848 MHz can deliver 8 gigabits ~30 meters. (Phone wire, ideal conditions. Coax would have longer reach.)

Either would be great for the 55 families in my six story New York building. The simulations from Adtran and others in the standards groups have consistently predicted what the actual performance would be. http://bit.ly/gmgfast

*** At Broadband World Forum Berlin, make sure to visit Sckipio in Booth E101B for the latest advances in G.fast. Don't miss our CTO, Rami Verbin, at the Broadband Forum Access Summit. Sckipio, the leader as G.fast deploys around the world, continues to deliver performance.  http://bit.ly/Sckipio (ad)

Stanton of Adtran: G.fast Will Be Even Faster, But Not Yet http://bit.ly/gfaster
Customers want 212 MHz but development is still needed. Tom hopes for the first half of 2018, but notes, "The timetable for volume deployment is dependent on the chip suppliers." One European telco was told not to expect much until well into the year. I wouldn't be surprised if few customers are connected until late in the year. 

Adtran demonstrated two DSLAMs with Deutsche Telekom. One used Sckipio chips and delivered DTA. DTA allows higher effective speeds by allowing different upstream/downstream splits for each user. Since most systems are configured for a 5-1 or higher upstream/downstream split, the improved upstream can be 5X. The second DSLAM used Broadcom chips and 212 MHz of spectrum but without DTA. http://bit.ly/gfaster

*** ASSIA: Network software that ensures your customers get the performance they demand, assia-inc.com (ad)

Broadcom's 212 MHz Exists http://bit.ly/Broad212 Update: I'll have test data next issue
Deutsche Telekom and NetCologne have tested it. Adtran thinks they will be able to ship soon, but NetCologne doesn't expect much until next year. Broadcom's Greg Fischer confirms to me, "We entered production with 212 MHz G.Fast devices last quarter and also released production standards compliant iDTA.  We’re working with standards groups to assure same with cDTA." Sckipio is hard at work on 212 MHz and is delivering cDTA. It will be reassuring when the two demonstrate interop, as the lead at a very large telco discussed with me.http://bit.ly/Broad212

212 MHz should deliver as much as a gig up to about 200 meters.That covers most buildings. Almost all buildings would be covered by a second system deployed for the upper stories.

Broadcom has a "policy of not publishing data on our devices."  Vectoring noise cancellation is of course a challenge at the high speeds, so everyone will be waiting for demonstrations with a full binder. Australia and others are interested in remote power, also tbd. Broadcom has done innovative work with local error correction, and I'd like to see that shown as well.  

Traditional industry practice is to have a second source. Broadcom has just been locked out of the crucial German market in a patent dispute. They also lost a preliminary decision at the U.S. Trade Agency. They happen to be right on the substance; Tessera is demanding an unreasonable royalty. But that holds little weight in the absurd patent system. Stuff happens. A factory can catch fire. A huge customer can demand priority. A development program can fall behind. (35b was promised for 2016. DT now says it won't be ready until h2 2018.) Everyone wants to be protected.http://bit.ly/Broad212

1.6 Gig 212 MHz ZTE/NetCologne Demo http://bit.ly/ZTENC212
Next year, 260,000 lines. Cologne and Munich city nets have long been outclassing DT, especially with fiber deployment. CEO Timo von Lepel gets it, "One day, 100 Mbps will be the lowest data rate available." They have installed 25,000 kilometers of fiber, including to the basements of most substantial buildings. They run VDSL at 50-100 megabits to most apartments, but will rapidly replace that with G.fast.

They plan to use 212 MHz of bandwidth for speeds over 1 gigabit. At Anga Com, they showed download speed of 1.6 gig and upload of 200 megabits with equipment from ZTE. In the picture next to the speed test are Sun Jie of ZTE on the left, von Lepal and Horst Schmitz on the right. They have good reason to smile. Apparently, ZTE is using Broadcom G.fast chips. They expect the 212 MHz chips to be in limited supply until next year.

I'm waiting for Broadcom to provide details. In particular, it's not clear Broadcom (or anyone) is ready to do the heavy calculations for vectoring the higher speeds on more than 4 ports. Separately, Adtran and Deutsche Telekom announced results of their private testing of 212 MHz and cDTA. The cDTA is on Sckipio chips. 

*** Self-Healing Wi-Fi With ASSIA Real-Q 
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Broadcom Bummer: Blocked By Berlin Ban http://bit.ly/Broadbum
The Tessera patent case pushes dozens of Broadcom chips out of the country. U.S. could be next.  The German court upheld a Tessera patent "for smoothing the planes of semiconductor chips." The court ruling resulted in this notice on the Broadcom website: *Certain versions of this device are not available for sale in Germany or shipment to or from Germany, and these versions should not be used in any product destined for the German market."

It affected dozens of Broadcom chips. Broadcom asserted in court "It will suffer immense damages."Tessera has also won a patent decision at the U.S. ITC which could block Broadcom in the U.S. after the commission reviews it. The ban includes versions of the BCM63138, which was probably used in the recent Deutsche Telekom G.fast 212 demonstration.More, including the absurdities of the patent system, http://bit.ly/Broadbum

2019 Deutsche Telekom G.fast Build is On http://bit.ly/DTgfast
Officially mum as they seek government money. In the 2/3rds of Germany that can get cable, DT has been falling behind for years. Mike Fries of Liberty has aggressive plans to expand the cable footprint; LGI's expansion in England and Germany is the largest new wireline network building in Europe. City networks in Munich and Cologne are also upgrading rapidly. 

DT is carefully not discussing their G.fast plans as they negotiate with the government for billions in subsidies for vectoring. The 20% of Germany without cable or DT upgrade plans has $4B in subsidies already allocated. DT wants more money, but doesn't want to build a robust network where they have a near-monopoly.http://bit.ly/DTgfast

*** Two remarkable Broadband Forum Access Summits will feature speakers including Tom  Starr of AT&T and Trevor Linney of BT. 
In Berlin at BBWF October 24 https://tmt.knect365.com/bbwf/agenda/1/grid
In Las Vegas before the Calix Connection event October 29 http://bit.ly/2iHz7Dt (psa) No charge

Tamboli: "2019 Will Be The Year of G.fast" http://bit.ly/GF2019
The technology available earlier but Dell'Oro analyst thinks telcos will move slowly.  Adtran, Broadcom, Huawei, Sckipio, & ZTE are demonstrating the next generation of G.fast gear, which presumably will be generally available in early 2018. AT&T, BT, Century, and others have plans to move aggressively, but Tamboli believes the large volume will be in 2019.

'Operators are holding off on massive deployments throughout their networks until they have more hands-on time with amendment 3 chipsets and systems, which will be available in early 2018," he believes. "Furthermore, many operators that wish to deploy G.fast into larger buildings via FTTB architectures are waiting for 32 or larger port units" http://bit.ly/GF2019

*** Virtual fiber by Sckipio. Extend your fiber with 100-300 meters of single-port G.fast. It can save expensive trenching for cell towers, small cells, basement fiber, commercial customers and others. A very thin management layer allows operators to keep their existing GPON management layer. Sckipio makes it effortless to add G.fast to any GPON network.  http://bit.ly/Fiberextend(ad)

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Volume 18, #3 July 21, 2017 

Latest issue

Nov 6

G.fast News: Deutsche Wants a Gigabit, Finally Realizes 50 Meg Isn't Enough,1.6 Gig in Sckipio-Calix Test, Reverse Power 4 Port DSLAM for Australia, Australia Makes it Official: G.fast to Million Plus, 2 Bonded 212 Lines = 3 Gigabits

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Angelina Jolie, Ashley Judd and dozens of others have exposed Harvey Weinstein. Every industry, including ours, has monsters like that, rarely stopped.
    I choose instead to highlight some women who are driving us forward. Nicola Palmer and Sanyogita Sangupta lead Verizon’s 5G effort, the most successful in the world. They will spend $billions and have already put hundreds of cells in the field  
     Verizon jumped ahead when almost all others held back. Charla Rath persuaded the FCC to offer gigahertz of mmWave spectrum three years before the official WRC plan. They supported the NYU work to make a more accurate channel model.
     With allies, VZ created their own 5G standard in 2015 because they didn’t want to wait for 3GPP.  The system commercial in 2018 and will do mobile in 2019 if the handsets are ready.  
     “The race is on” between Verizon and AT&T to be first in each market.10%-20% of people almost everywhere hate their broadband provider and likely to switch to mmWave. The U.S. build is going fast because the two giants expect to find a large market replacing landlines outside of their existing region.
     If they are first in a land grab.

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