Jan 18

300,000 Indian Villages Fibered; 325,000 More To Come http://bit.ly/600KIndia
Verizon, NTT, AT&T: ?$200-$400 5G Costs Much Lower Than Expected http://bit.ly/Hans200400
Important: 5G Handles 10x More Data Than 4G http://bit.ly/5G10X4G
India Passes U.S. in Smartphones http://bit.ly/India40Msmartphones
AT&T Probably Will Not Have a 5G Mobile Phone in 2018 http://bit.ly/T5G2019
Pai, Speaking of Immigration, Put His Career on the Line http://bit.ly/Paicourage
35b: Ready or Not? Germans Say Not, Some Say Yes http://bit.ly/35bready
Qualcomm's Not To Be Believed Comeback in G.fast http://bit.ly/Ikanoslives

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Manoj Sinha announced that 300,000 Indian villages have been connected by fiber and BharatNet is on target for 325,000 more early in 2019. This is by far the largest rural broadband project in history. Bids are out for 500,000 Wi-Fi hotspots and 130.000 post offices will connect. The telcos are offered low prices to bring in LTE and fiber home. Programs are underway for > 100,000 local business to offer connectivity.  

Ajit Pai risked his career by challenging Trump's immigration policy. "My love and reverence for this country comes from living in the house of Raj and Radha Pai. My parents know a little something about the American Dream. They came to this country 46 years ago with literally no assets other than $10, a transistor radio, and a desire to achieve that dream." I never imagined America would plan to deport four million people. 
---------

  • Boldface correction: Adtran’s “Tier 1” customer who severely cut investment apparently was Century, not AT&T.
  • This issue is dedicated to Wa Lone and Kyaw Soe Oo, Reuters reporters in jail in Myanmar for reporting the truth.
  • A news story just making the rounds that Verizon is throttling  Netflix to 4 megabits is almost certainly a mistake. Netflix sends HD video at ~4 meg. An app thought Verizon had reduced the speed.
  • Beware Bitcoin true believers. Nobel Prize winners and anyone with common sense realizes the price is unsustainable but they can’t hear that.


Breaking: NY Times Sees U.S. Using Nuclear Weapons in Case of a Cyberattack
"A new U.S. strategy 'would permit the use of nuclear weapons to respond to a wide range of devastating but non-nuclear attacks on American infrastructure, including what current and former government officials described as the most crippling kind of cyberattacks. This would be 'first use."

300,000 Indian Villages Fibered; 325,000 More To Come http://bit.ly/600KIndia
Takeaway: Sometimes, government gets it right. This is large enough to be world changing.
     After years of delay, >100M Indians are ready to be connected with fiber, Wi-Fi, and LTE. Phase 1 is finished of India's BharatNet, the most ambitious rural connectivity program in history. The expectation is all 250,000 regional councils and 625,000 villages will be reached by GPON fiber by the March 2019 completion target.
     Most villages will have local Wi-Fi, sometimes from the local Post Office and often through a program of local businesses. Backhaul for telcos is included; Jio will presumably use BharatNet backhaul as they extend their LTE network to 95% of Indians.
     The fiber and most of the other equipment is produced in India. State-owned BSNL is playing a major role in construction and procurement. The $15B project is primarily funded by the accumulated Universal Service Fund.
      China, Vietnam, and now India are showing what governments can do delivering broadband. (Sometimes) The majority of new Internet connections are now due to government entities. http://bit.ly/600KIndia

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Verizon, NTT, AT&T: ?$200-$400 5G Costs Much Lower Than Expected http://bit.ly/Hans200400
Hans Vestberg of Verizon is passing 30M homes without raising capex.
     NTT DOCOMO's very respected CTO Seizo Inoe in 2016 called high costs of 5G "a myth." He expected LTE to be cheaper than 3G and that much of the 5G would use existing towers and backhaul. Vestberg, former Ericsson CEO now running Verizon's network, sees costs of mmWave costing $200-400/home passed as they deploy to a quarter of the U.S., probably by 2020 or 2021. (Obviously, some other areas will be more expensive.) 5G is "Massively, massively cheaper than having a fiber all the way to the home to have sort of a beam in the air going to the home."
     Verizon has previously said their costs to pass a home with fiber were $700 in 2007 and went down from there, presumably to $400-600. I'm inferring that "massively, massively cheaper" would be $200-$400.
    All cost numbers like these are rough estimates and vary enormously based on density and physical circumstances. Verizon presumably went first to lower cost areas. The second quarter of the U.S. will be more expensive and the last quarter even more so. In particular, the last 2-8% of rural fiber costs into the thousands and the last ~1% is prohibitively expensive.
    The main reason the cost projections are coming down is that mmWave reach is proving much better than expected so fewer cells are needed. Vestberg is often getting a gigabit 300-700 meters. A major European government study was based on 200 meter reach. The high cost estimates for "5G" from outfits like Deutsche Telekom are pure b_____, designed to get government subsidies and concessions. 
    None of the above is certain until we have more data from the field. http://bit.ly/Hans200400

Important: 5G Handles 10x More Data Than 4G http://bit.ly/5G10X4G
Takeaway: Wireless progress has and will keep up with demand without major changes in capex or spectrum. 3 out of 4 in the industry get that wrong.
    Vestberg also said: "2G to 3G, probably 10x better to handle data and 3G to 4G 10x at least. And minimum, I would say, 4G to 5G is the same." 
    "Will we be able to keep up with wireless growth?" I asked Hans Vestberg back when D.C. was screaming spectrum crisis. "Yes we will. I'm confident human ingenuity will deliver what we need," he replied. "That's always been true in wireless." 
     Five years later, wireless speeds worldwide are much higher; congestion in the developed world remains an exception. Telcos continue spending $billions on advertising to find enough customers to fill their nets.
     Without much more spectrum or many more cells, improved technology alone will cover likely demand until 2024 or 2026. (My calculation.) Putting to use currently fallow spectrum and modestly more density, wireless networks are good until 2030 or later.
     What Vestberg said confirms what I heard from Paulraj of Stanford in 2014. He believed MIMO alone will yield a 50-100x improvement. Vint Cerf, Henry Samueli of Broadcom, and Andrea Goldsmith generally agreed at other Marconi events. http://bit.ly/5G10X4G

*** "I'm very proud of our new Amendment 3 chipset," says David Baum, CEO, Sckipio. "The performance is breathtaking, Compared to our previous chipset, It delivers four times the vectoring capability, twice the bonding speeds, and supports coordinated DTA for symmetric-like performance in both downstream and upstream." (ad) Really does a gig and more, including upstream db

India Passes U.S. in Smartphones http://bit.ly/India40Msmartphones
~40M sold in Q3, increasing. 
     With > 400M Indians connected by 2G phones, India has become the second largest smartphone market and is gaining share against China. With monthly service prices often under $5 and many phones subsidized to $25-35, Deloitte estimates 350M more Indians will be connected by 2020. Reliance Jio added over 100M customers on 4G smartphones in the last year; the remaining survivors, especially Bharti & Vodafone, are scrambling to catch up.
     Google's new Oreo Go version of Android is bringing the cost of low-end 4G phones to about $30, with the first units expected from Indian manufacturer Micromax by the end of the month. The inexpensive phones will be a natural way to connect in the amazing 625,000 villages being fibered by BharatNet.
    The Chinese vendors, including Oppo & Vivo but not Huawei, have massively taken market share from Indian companies like Micromax and Karbonn the last few years. The Chinese have been moving production to India to beat 15% tariffs and find lower labor costs. Apple has talked a good game, but is holding out for enormous tariff and tax subsidies from India. More http://bit.ly/India40Msmartphones

*** Telefonica Deploys ASSIA’s GPON Expresse Solution
ClearView support for Wi-Fi and Expresse are now available for both DSL & GPON http://bit.ly/2gElPYq (ad) 

AT&T Probably Will Not Have a 5G Mobile Phone in 2018 http://bit.ly/T5G2019
Despite dozens of news stories, AT&T has not said they will launch a mobile 5G phone in 2018. 
     They carefully spoke about a "device," may be a tablet or laptop. They confirmed that when I asked.  A tablet or laptop has power, space, and heat dissipation capabilities that a contemporary mobile phone lacks. 
      It's not impossible to have a mobile mmWave phone chip this year. TSMC will be in "risk production" of 7 nm. Linley estimates the mmWave chips will require 10X the transistors of 4G, raising major questions of heat and power until 7 nm. Most telco engineers were amazed when Intel & Qualcomm moved delivery from 2020 to 2019. Delivering commercial chips in late 2018 would be remarkable. 
      T & VZ face the same issues, deploying the same equipment from the same suppliers. Verizon is doubtful. "It is a year before you have something at least and -- until you have it commercially as well. Maybe a little bit more than that when it comes to wireless."
     They both are racing for the pr; neither is likely to be much ahead. These are pr battles. There is a real battle coming to actually deploy across the country, if my sources are correct. http://bit.ly/T5G2019

*** IoT Evolution Expo Orlando Jan 22-25
5 Collocated events, 80 Sessions, 250 Speakers, 2,000 Attendees & Unlimited opportunity http://bit.ly/2BqDZ4o (ad) Programmed by Carl Ford, one of the best

Pai, Speaking of Immigration, Put His Career on the Line http://bit.ly/Paicourage
"My love and reverence for this country comes from living in the house of Raj and Radha Pai. My parents know a little something about the American Dream. They came to this country 46 years ago with literally no assets other than $10, a transistor radio, and a desire to achieve that dream." Pai is a brilliant lawyer steeped in politics. He surely realized his job could disappear if Trump noticed the speech Pai gave in honor of Ronald Reagan.
     Pai will go down in history as a man who killed Net Neutrality, or tried do. There's more to him than that, including the courage to stand up for his very strong beliefs. He's wrong in many of those beliefs: AT&T has made clear that killing neutrality will not lead to the increase in investment Pai expects. T-Mobile & Verizon will build in 3.5 Ghz spectrum without the concessions Pai is about to give them; much, probably most of the money he thinks will go to expanding broadband is wasted.
    But he's right that immigrants should not be scapegoats. http://bit.ly/Paicourage

35b: Ready or Not? Germans Say Not, Some Say Yes http://bit.ly/35bready
A reader wondered about my 35b story writing, "35b to my knowledge is already in market." I know Fastweb in Italy is already selling to consumers at "Up to 200 megabits" but without vectoring they will often be much lower. On the other hand, Deutsche Telecom, the largest expected customer, says it won't be ready until 2019. I believe what's going on is that Broadcom is selling 35b chips but the vectoring isn't ready for large deployments.
     The reader asked what were my sources for the story Deutsche Telecom: 35b Supervectoring Delayed to 2019? That's always a fair question. 
     I've been reporting 35b since 2015, but this story was inspired by an article by Achim Sawall. The official statement from DT did say 2018, so I checked with Sawall, a respected reporter. He confirmed to me that DT had updated the timing at a later press briefing.
    All of us are waiting for detailed results from the field. http://bit.ly/35bready

Qualcomm's Not To Be Believed Comeback in G.fast http://bit.ly/Ikanoslives
Qualcomm Ikanos division and product killed in 2016. This was widely reported and officially confirmed after I broke the story. A link from Google News took me to a "research report" from market.biz, with the four leading G.fast chipset vendors identified. They correctly identify three G.fast chipset vendors, Broadcom, Ikanos, and Metanoia. But I strongly doubt the "report" is worth its $2900 price given they claim Qualcomm makes G.fast chips. If anyone knows who is behind this fake news, please tell me. http://bit.ly/Ikanoslives

Briefs

  • Craig Moffett believes video price hikes “are like a car that is headed for a cliff, with a driver that believes the only solution is to step on the gas.” http://bit.ly/2mlrCBN
  • Craig Matsumoto has joined 451 Research after 20 years as one of the best tech reporters. He writes, "Journalism was loads of fun, but after years of being told I ought to try being an analyst, I'm giving it a go. I'll be covering managed services but still hoping to find challenging technologies to write about -- stuff that's not only new but a little bit weird."
  • Great story: 17 year old fabbing 4004 chip in garage https://spectrum.ieee.org/semiconductors/devices/the-high-school-student-whos-building-his-own-integrated-circuits
  • Great headline: Nepal bans blind people and double amputees from climbing Everest
  • Sony and Softbank believe we will have robot companions soon; Pepper & Aibo still have a way to go to satisfy most of us but AI keeps getting better. A well-illustrated BI story about Gatebox AI gives a hint of what’s to come. http://read.bi/2EnRoMX

December 28

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Akayed Ullah bombed the 42nd St subway tunnel I often use. Walking through two days later, I thought about the effect on our industry. I realized that ubiquitous surveillance cannot be stopped. Right or wrong, with bombs frequent a fearful majority will give Homeland Security almost anything they request.

Good news coming: Rwanda is at 92% LTE, going toward 100% in the next year. Both Myanmar and India are heading towards 95%. If they can do that, so can almost every other country in the world.
I believe Telecom Italia is under 90% but they refuse to give me a figure.

Apologies for the long Internet Society stuff at the end. With $30M/year from .org, ISOC should be the most important advocate in the world for Internet users. It isn't.


*** Publisher's favor request. FNN has one of the most desirable audiences in telecom, loaded with senior decision makers as well as influential press and analysts. I'll design an ad package for you that delivers excellent value for money. No contracts or other hassles. Email This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. or call me 347-603-6442 for some ideas you will like.

Breaking: Goldman $5B Writeoff, Adtran Warning Point to Telco Capex Cut & Highly Distorted Earnings to Come http://bit.ly/TVZFinan
Goldman Sachs took a $5B writeoff this morning for the new tax law and Bloomberg expects $20B more from Citi. Verizon and AT&T have some of the same issues so may see similar. Do not believe U.S. earnings results in the next year or two because balance sheet adjustments may overwhelm underlying trends. Underneath it all, all these companies are extremely profitable and the tax changes will put them ahead. But the numbers the next 24 months could be highly misleading.     Verizon has $46B in "deferred long term liabilities" and $38B in poorly defined "other liabilities." Major adjustments - up or down - would surprise no one. Phil Cusick of Morgan did an analysis a while back from which I inferred Verizon would need writedowns. Since he hadn't said that explicitly, he got angry at me and cut me off his distro. (I'd like to be back. His analysis then and other times was on target.) I haven't trusted Verizon's financials for a decade because of unclear items like these liabilities and enormous goodwill. Former CFO Stephenson at AT&T has long been a wizard at delivering the numbers he wants to. 
      Suggestion: If you are putting money into this industry, closely follow analysis from John Hodulik and Craig Moffett. They are among the best at finding reality beneath the figures reported.
     Separately, Adtran pre-announced 4Q sales at $125M, $20M less than the last three quarters. Tom Stanton explained, "this quarter has been significantly impacted by a merger-related review and slowdown in the spending at a domestic Tier 1 customer. Our current understanding is that this review will be completed in 60 to 90 days, at which time capital plans will be finalized." Since Verizon doesn't have a large merger on the table, I thought that meant AT&T is slowing down spending. T has been telling the street the 4G build is mostly over and the 5G will be modest for at least another year or two, allowing a capex cut. I now hear it may be Century.
     Randall fired a few thousand people just before Christmas, part of the plan to cut 70,000 jobs that most people haven't noticed. AT&T decided a year ago or more there was no growth in telecom and they would have to cut back. One way to view the $85B Time Warner deal is that AT&T had no other good way to move that much money from the current business.
    Adtran is down 14% on the news and Calix 5% on fears they will also be affected. The details in the announcement are somewhat encouraging; Adtran expects to almost break even for the quarter despite a big sales disappointment. 
Both Adtran and Calix are doing well in key accounts, especially with their SDN software. I hope that continues; I'm in the process of selling them ads and I need the money.  http://bit.ly/TVZFinan

*** Telefonica Deploys ASSIA’s GPON Expresse Solution
ClearView support for Wi-Fi and Expresse are now available for both DSL & GPON http://bit.ly/2gElPYq (ad) 

Misses (Hits next issue) 
"I make many mistakes," the Butler said. http://imdb.to/2CmG3Ms

  • Africa in 2017 to Have More Internet Users Than U.S. has people http://bit.ly/2lhOXUe I made that prediction in 2014 working with Cisco data. Two very bad years mean Africa won't pass 320M until late 2018 or 2019.
  • Small cells, finally: U.S. carriers get going in 2016 http://bit.ly/smcells Didn't happen. Telcos found CA and 4x4 MIMO gave them the needed capacity.
  • U.S. cable companies nearly always deliver close to promised speeds Time Warner committed major fraud including distorting the FCC/AskSam data I relied on. http://bit.ly/2lasVl3
  • Atif Mian of Princeton tweeted, Six Americans won the Nobel prize this year in various sciences. ALL of them immigrants. (Mian won in economics, I wrote,) (Actually, Mian hasn't won a Nobel.)
  • Gig LTE: Telstra 2016, ... http://bit.ly/ATTgiglte "I believe that 'gig' LTE will deliver hundreds of megabits 90+% of the time" Updated estimate from Qualcomm is that 75-150 meg will be common, not too shabby. While Telstra announced they had Gig LTE in 2016, I discovered they actually didn't ship.

World First "1.2 Gig" Commercial Service At Ooredoo Qatahttp://bit.ly/QatarGig
Limited customers, speed only occasionally reached. Qatar Airlines is the first to deploy Ooredoo's > 1 gigabit service, now being offered to selected customers in selected locations. C114, one of China's best tech pubs, is my source for the 1.2 gig speeds, confirmed by four other news publications. That the world leadership has left the U.S. and Europe is a major story, even if the details may be slight puffery.
   Over a year ago, I discovered that True in Thailand was one of the first in the world to deploy 4x4 MIMO across the country, matched in 2017 in many other networks. That's just starting to be matched in the U.S. and Europe. Five companies - Ericsson, Huawei, Nokia, Samsung, and ZTE - are the source of almost all the 4G & 5G networks today. They sell the same gear in Qatar, Myanmar, Berlin, & Chicago. Except for Verizon and 5G mmWave - coming in 2018 - the Western telcos are no longer ahead.
    The most advanced commercial wireless networks previously announced have been "up to 1 gigabit" using the Qualcomm 835 chip. Ooredoo is at 85% coverage in Myanmar, headed to 92%. http://bit.ly/QatarGig

*** "I'm very proud of our new Amendment 3 chipset," says David Baum, CEO, Sckipio. "The performance is breathtaking, Compared to our previous chipset, It delivers four times the vectoring capability, twice the bonding speeds, and supports coordinated DTA for symmetric-like performance in both downstream and upstream." (ad)

Times of London: "YouTube a shop window for child abuse videos" http://bit.ly/Googlekids
Google and Facebook continue to fail at blocking what society considers abusive. It may not be possible to do so without a truly massive team examining videos. Despite the German government threatening $millions/day in fines, government pressure everywhere, advertisers fleeing and thousands hired, the control systems are failing. 
     Alexi Mostrous, Head of Investigations at Murdoch's Times of London, just before yearend reports, "Child predators are using YouTube as a 'shop window' to showcase abused children before exchanging explicit footage and images with paedophiles around the world. One Brazilian paedophile posted a dozen videos of young girls to YouTube this month. Most were ten seconds long and showed the children standing silently, licking their lips or dancing. One showed a masked child aged about ten saying: "Hey guys I got new underwear."
     Each video was emblazoned with the paedophile's email address. When an undercover reporter made contact, the man boasted he had 315 gigabytes of material showing 'naked' children.
     Another alleged child abuser, calling himself Horny Pastor, was allowed to create a YouTube channel despite having a username that had been flagged to US and Canadian child-abuse authorities. 
    There's no easy answer to censoring clearly illegal content, like child pornography, without also censoring clearly legal speech, like the famous Vietnam photo of a napalmed young girl. Much more, including politician comment, a look at why it's almost impossible to do this right without an army of watchers, and why Google & Facebook are the most important censors in countries like mine http://bit.ly/Googlekids

*** IoT Evolution Expo Orlando Jan 22-25
5 Collocated events, 80 Sessions, 250 Speakers, 2,000 Attendees & Unlimited opportunity http://bit.ly/2BqDZ4o (ad) Programmed by Carl Ford, one of the best

Vectoring Disaster: 26% Get Less Than 50 Megabits on a "100 Megabit" Network http://bit.ly/NBNVector
50,000 refunds as complaints go up 160%. Much of the Australian network is second-rate. Belgacom got 80 megabits down to almost everyone. Most could get over 100 meg. Other telcos told me similar.
     When Malcolm Turnbull, now Prime Minister, asked me whether vectoring could deliver 100 megabits, I said yes. So I bear a small share of the responsibility for millions of Australians having a second-rate Internet for the next decade. (He heard the same from many others.)
     I (apparently) made an inaccurate assumption: that NBN would build the network to the well-known standards for vectoring. Vectoring generally delivers 100 megabits 500 meters and more than 50 megabits 800 meters. The figures below from the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission show ~50% are not getting the 100 megabits paid for and more than a quarter get less than half the speed. 3% do not even receive 25 megabits. There are rumors Deutsche Telekom is facing similar problems but no hard data. 
     Telstra is offering to compensate 42,000 customers for slow NBN speeds under pressure from the Australian Competition Commission. Optus is part-refunding almost 9,000 more. ACCC Chair Rod Sims is part of an international wave of regulators demanding telcos deliver what they advertise. OFCOM in England and BNetzA in Germany are cracking down. The British Advertising Standards Authority now requires companies to provide median speeds rather than the long denigrated "up to" speeds. 
     At Telstra, 26,497 (56%) of FTTN customers on the 100/40 Mbps plan could not receive 100/40 Mbps. Of those customers, 9,606 could not receive 50/20 Mbps. 6,352 (45%) of FTTN customers on a 50/20 Mbps plan could not receive 50/20 Mbps.
    At Optus, 5,430 (48%) of FTTN consumers on a 100/40 Mbps plan could not receive 100/40 Mbps, and 2,337 (21%) of those consumers could not receive 50/20 Mbps
    Switching from full fiber to vectored DSL has not solved the cost problem, unfortunately. The costs remain far too high. "We will continue to investigate others" writes Rod Sims, More data http://bit.ly/NBNVector

*** The Broadband Forum thanks all the speakers and staff that made the BASE Summits a great event. Plan ahead for the BBF Quarterly Meeting in Athens, March 26-29 and the Summit alongside (psa) 

DNA Finland: Range of 3.5 GHz Massive MIMO = Range of 1.8 GHz Traditional http://bit.ly/DNAFinn
Adding more antennas makes adding cells unnecessary. I don't have cost details, but the innovative Finnish telco, DNA, suggests that using Massive MIMO in the 3.5 GHz spectrum could be very interesting. 
     Pal Zarandy writes, "DNA, one of the Finnish operators publicly shared their plans about using 3.5GHz with 5G massive MIMO, deployed on the existing 1800MHz macro site grid (i.e. no site densification needed, no Capex hikes), to push home broadband primarily in the outskirts of bigger cities, lower pop areas."
    This is consistent with what I heard from Softbank Japan, the first with a large deployment of Massive MIMO. Softbank told me they tuned for better performance at the cell edge rather than greater total speeds. Beamforming/Beamshaping gives the operator many ways to focus the signal as desired.
     Pal adds, "DNA has also a fixed-line business (broadband, cable TV), mainly in bigger cities. They have been pushing fully unlimited 4G MBB, now their mobile data volumes exceed their fixed-line volumes. In Europe the 3.5GHz spectrum auctions are coming up, operators are expected to acquire ~100MHz each (TDD)." 3.4-4.2 GHz will add 300 MHz or more in most countries, enough to double the spectrum available. More http://bit.ly/DNAFinn

Qatar Ooredoo Added to Massive MIMO Map, Dec 2017
Ooredoo is using Massive MIMO. Europe will fill in very rapidly, if only because DT is enthused and controls 7 Eastern European companies. I haven't heard much from Latin American leaders Telefonica and American Movil, but I expect that to change in 2018. Africa is the most intriguing possibility. Because they have almost no landlines South of the Sahara, African broadband will be overwhelmingly wireless. Capacity today is very limited, with caps generally 2 to 10 gigabytes. This is inadequate for the video Internet. 
    Massive MIMO is the natural solution, as Paulraj predicted in 2014. Softbank and others have demonstrated the technology works. Four executives at Huawei confirmed to me MM is ready for Africa. I infer from that the price makes sense and Huawei is ready to support the product there.

Briefs

  • Harmonic, Ubiquiti, and Quantenna are good companies with excellent products. I strongly advise all but the best-financed professional investors to be cautious. The stock prices have been swinging wildly, far more than the 60 or so other companies whose news I track at Yahoo Finance. That usually means a few large investors are playing games with each other. The result is the stock moves aren't rational and there's no way to determine the right price. Harmonic makes some of the best encoders; Quantenna, probably the best Wi-Fi chips; Ubiquiti highly reliable inexpensive wireless gear.
  • Further warning: Blockchain probably won't live up to the hype but has real applications. Most Bitcoin buyers are suckers likely to get burnt. I had dinner with a fireman, a nice guy but highly unlikely to get rich on cryptocurrencies because he took a halfday course. If I understood more, I'd probably be even more skeptical.
  • Harold Ford, until recently a Comcast spokesman, left "Morgan Stanley after facing a human resources investigation into allegations of misconduct, a company spokeswoman confirmed. 'He has been terminated for conduct inconsistent with our values and in violation of our policies,' Verizon's HuffPo reports. Unlike Harvey Weinstein, there is no public evidence of rape or coercion. As the telcos and cablecos hide from reporters in D.C., we have to look for their proxies to find their positions. As far as I know, Mike Powell of the Cable Association, Jonathan Spalter of U.S. Telecom, & Meredith Attwell Baker of CTIA (wireless) never deviate from the positions of of their primary sponsors, AT&T, Comcast, & Verizon. Since Verizon and AT&T usually hide from reporters, I look to the mouthpieces for company positions. (I believe Ford, a liberal Democrat, took money indirectly from the cable guys.)
  • 4 on Huawei. COMMSDay: Huawei may yet have a chance at the Australian NBN after being blocked by the Aussie military. Malcolm Turnbull when he was Comms Minister told me he thought competition from Huawei would bring the cost far down.  ZDNet: "Huawei's $200 Honor 7X is the future of the smartphone industry;" Multiple news reports: AT&T will feature Huawei phones with $100M of advertising; Chinese press: Consumer chief Teng Hongfei has been detained with allegations of bribery. Every large company in the industry has faced corruption charges, including Huawei in Algeria in 2012. There is no evidence Huawei is in the same class as Siemens ($billions) or even the $hundreds of millions admitted by Alcatel, Ericsson, Telia and others.

Other recent stories:

Newsbreak: Kathy Brown's Leaving; Can the Internet Society Now Become Global, Independent, Democratic & Transparent? http://bit.ly/ISOCEthics
Kathy Brown has announced her coming resignation as CEO of the Internet Society. It's her decision. She has strong support, continues to be one of the ablest policy advocates in D.C., and has the energy to work very hard. I've known her for many years to be one of the most decent executives in D.C. For the Internet Society, she brought the Internet Governance Forum back from a near-death moment to be a vibrant forum for discussing Internet issues. 
     Kudos are pouring in. Vint Cerf writes, "I would highlight Kathy's astute hiring of talent during her term as CEO and her expansion of the role of ISOC as a supplier of factual data and a defender of the Internet's openness." ... Internet pioneer Steve Crocker adds, "As past chairman of ICANN, I think Kathy's strong support of ICANN during our transition period should definitely be included.  This took significant energy and leadership and represented a high point for ISOC, for ICANN and for the entire Internet community." Nadira Alaraj emails, "Kathy's leadership is the approval of the Chapters Advisory Council." Angie Contreras applauds, "The creation of two very important groups: the Special Interest Group of Youngsters better known as the Youth Observatory and the Special Interest Group of Women." Renata Aquino Ribeiro remembers a personal touch. "In 2015, I went to the Public Forum in Marrakesh to discuss ICANN and gender balance, my 2nd ICANN meeting. Hours later I was outside the venue and she found me and complimented me for speaking out... Gratitude always."
     That said, my evaluation of ISOC under Brown was strongly negative. ISOC gets $30M/year in support through .org registrations. I believe it can and must be a vital voice for Internet users. That's why I care.

Warning: Boring policy discussion follows. 

ISOC under Brown has not lived up to claims to be Global, Independent, Multistakeholder/Democratic, Open, & Transparent. 
     ISOC leaders make eloquent speeches about how organizations like ITU should be "multistakeholder," open, and transparent. Our CEO has asserted ISOC is a "bottom-up multistakeholder" organization. Nearly all decisions are actually made top-down by strong executive leadership.
     I became disillusioned when ISOC supported U.S. policy in the great "North/South" split at the WCIT. The U.S. is refighting the cold war, not a productive policy.
     ISOC invariably chose to support the U.S. position over proposals from the emerging world with wide support. In particular, ISOC supported the U.S. on all important issues of access cost, such as reasonable royalties and multinationals paying taxes. The Africans told me the most important international factor in high costs is cartel-like pricing for backhaul and transit. ISOC opposed a proposal to do something about that. 
     The Internet was built and managed by the U.S. and other developed countries. That deserves enormous respect, especially to Vint Cerf who is actively disagreeing with what I'm writing. It's painful to dispute with Vint; developing TCP-IP was just his first major achievement. For the succeeding 40 years, he's traveled the world to get people connected. He's been personally generous. But the time has come to accept a changed situation and widen the decisionmaking.  
     The majority of Internet users are now in the rest of the world. The ROW, led by the BRICS, has been demanding a stronger role in key decisions. They believe, correctly, that many policies favored the countries in power.
     That the primary dispute was over power and influence, not human rights, was made clear to me by U.S. Delegation lead Larry Strickling. I asked why the U.S. was fighting so hard on trivial issues. Larry looked at me and asked, "Dave, do you want Russia and China to rule the Internet?" 
     While I believe Cerf and Brown were motivated by a belief in human rights, the 14 members of the U.S. delegation from three-letter agencies (NSA, CIA, HSA, DOD) were not there to protect freedom of speech.
      My answer, I realized later, should have been, "Of course they should have a role. The system is unsustainable if half the Internet users know they are excluded."
      History so far is proving me right. The BRICS, blocked at the ITU, are setting up a strong, alternative system, including making 40% of the contributions to 3GPP, the wireless group that is the key standards body. Nothing can be approved there without Chinese concurrence. Tim Cook of Apple kowtowed to China at the Wuzhan World Internet Conference, joined by Sundar Pichai of Google. I have more evidence from the BRICS meeting and the Belt and Road. Putin has started the process for a complete alternate root.
      I find the result of refusing to compromise is that the U.S. has much less say in the major decisions about the Internet, Internet commerce, and Internet taxes. The Chinese and Russians at WCIT were mostly concerned with the Internet in their own countries and I believe were happy to compromise on everything else. Blocked at ITU and ICANN, they feel they must build their own system. 
     ISOC refuses to apply our own principles. ISOC is not global: Easily half the Internet is essentially not represented within ISOC, despite our claims." There are no chapters - or board representation - from China, 1/3rd of the Internet. I called for a "Nixon goes to China" gesture by Brown. After years of discussion, the situation has not improved.
     Perhaps inadvertently, we actively discourage membership by those who disagree with our limited point of view. On our home page, we proclaim "Internet Society chapters are communities of like-minded people." I certainly am not "like-minded" with the leadership of the Internet Society; I often, but not always, agree with the Global South on issues opposed by ISOC leadership.
     We refuse to reveal our donors, acting like a DC Astroturf shop. I raise the issue because I have several examples of ISOC policy being influenced by donors. 
     We have a Chapters Committee but its most important recommendations are not supported. An example was a proposal for the chapters to allocate the huge sum of 3% of the budget (with fiscal controls) and make some local decisions, such as which policy events to attend. It received unanimous approval from the chapters committee. Initially, there was very strong board support. 
     The very modest Chapters proposal was completely rejected in a closed meeting led by a senior staffer. 
     I was severely flamed for these comments, an effective demonstration of how dissent is discouraged in ISOC. No one has questioned any of my facts. Brown's complete statement and far too much more, http://bit.ly/ISOCEthics 

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Volume 18, #10  Dec 28, 2017

Dec 17

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Tim Cook of Apple kowtows in Wuzhan, China, joined by Sundar Pichai of Google. China has nearly three times as many Internet users as the U.S. No U.S. executive except Sergei Brin is willing to give up the Chinese market. 4 of the 10 largest Internet companies are Chinese. Nothing gets approved in wireless without Chinese approval. 
     This is the world today, like it or not.

Vladimir Putin’s Russia and the BRICS are building an alternative Internet root after years of talk. At the end of this issue is the first in depth look in English. 
     The Russians fear that the U.S. and allies will extend the sanctions and have ICANN cut off Russia. I think that unlikely but not impossible. 14 of 18 ICANN board members are from the U.S. and allies. None come from over half the Internet, including China & Russia, despite the ICANN CEO promising the Chinese “a seat at the table.” 
     This actually could be fine. Columbia Prof Eli Noam reminds us that the Internet is a “network of networks.” It’s not a monolith that can be split and destroyed. Noam and ICANN CEO Chehade agree that with robust connection, this could work well. 
     The smart policy for the U.S. and ICANN is to cooperate to make things work rather than re-fighting the cold war. It far more likely the U.S. will continue an unproductive fight over ICANN, which doesn’t really do very much.

30 second editorial: $20B Bharti just bought a Rwanda network from $6B Millicom, subject to regulatory approval. There’s enough money in the deal they would build crucial infrastructure if if the regulator is strong. #Rightmove 


"A Brain Drain & An Empty Shell," If Broadcom Buys Qualcomm http://bit.ly/BroadQual
Will they ever again produce a chip like the new Snapdragon 845? The 835 is the best mobile chip in the world, dominating the market in top end smartphones. The newly announced 845, due in June, is reported to be 25%-30% faster. It will be produced on the same 10 nm process at TSMC. The 845 is "A significant upgrade ­ to get 25-30 percent performance in the same general process node is huge," analyst Jim McGregor tells Rick Merritt in EE Times. It's designed for speeds into the gigabits and ultra HD. 
     Jon Peddie's comment in the headline probably goes too far, but the cutbacks at Broadcom foretell problems ahead. Rick is one of the two or three best tech reporters working today. He wouldn't have run the quote if he hadn't heard from friends who worked at Broadcom. 
     Hock Tan has convinced some very sharp people on Wall Street that he is an exceptional manager who can fire a slew of engineers (~30%) and continue to produce world-class products. We won't know for sure whether Tan can produce near-miracles for several years, but a least one significant product is delayed. Broadcom's 35b DSL chip was promised for 2016 and then early 2018; Deutsche Telecom recently said it won't be ready for deployment until 2019. http://bit.ly/BroadQual

*** "I'm very proud of our new Amendment 3 chipset," says David Baum, CEO, Sckipio. "The performance is breathtaking, Compared to our previous chipset, It delivers four times the vectoring capability, twice the bonding speeds, and supports coordinated DTA for symmetric-like performance in both downstream and upstream." (ad) 

4G Speeds: Reliance Jio India 22 Megabits; T-Mobile U.S. 18; Verizon U.S. 15http://bit.ly/USslower
Slowly, the U.S. has dropped to #57 in the world. Reliance Jio has a world-class network built in the last three years. Verizon had a world-leading network in 2009-2012, the first large LTE network in the world. 
     Singapore, South Korea, and Norway are the fastest. Eastern Europe does surprisingly well, presumably because their networks are more recent. U.S. 4G speeds are half those in Canada and Spain. We are behind Russia, Brazil, Tunisia and dozens of others. Map and lots of datahttp://bit.ly/USslower

*** Telefonica Deploys ASSIA’s GPON Expresse Solution
ClearView support for Wi-Fi and Expresse are now available for both DSL & GPON http://bit.ly/2gElPYq (ad) 

Gig Of Data Too Effing Expensive For Billionshttp://bit.ly/2AQa072
From Nicaragua to Zambia, a basic 1 gig/month connection is too expensive for half the population. In Vietnam and Pakistan, 1 gig costs less than 2% of the average monthly income, the A4AI goal for affordability. In Nicaragua, a comparable figure is 8% ; in Zambia, 12%. 
   The key question is how to change that. One gig barely allows a couple of hours of video so a real minimum should be higher. The technology is making lower prices/higher caps possible. Verizon estimates the cost of delivering wireless data is going down 40%. So it's not a surprise many of these prices have come down. 
    As Reliance Jio is proving in India, new technology is ready for emerging nations as well.  Take a look at http://massivemimo.rocks (not . com) for some ideas on the right technology
    The most important international policy problem is high backhaul/transit costs, which are often cartel-like. They often are 10-40X higher than in the developed world and add $5-$10 to a robust Internet package. Americans should be embarrassed we are blocking solutions.
   Most of the other policy choices are best made domestically. Almost always the people on the ground know more than "policy" people in DC or Geneva. Nice map and more http://bit.ly/2AQa072

Four Antennas Good, Two Antennas Bad. Eight Antennas  50% Better?http://bit.ly/2or4or8
T-Mobile Netherlands and True Thailand are using 8 antennas for FDD spectrum, joining Kuwait in choosing Huawei gear. 8 antennas will rarely deliver twice the throughput of four antennas but will often deliver a 50% increase in capacity. 32/64 antenna Massive MIMO has been chosen by BT, DT, & FT for higher frequencies running TDD.
    32 antennas for 700 MHz or 1800 MHz spectrum would be too large to be practical most places. In those frequencies, a very senior engineer recommends "Don't go beyond 8 antennas for FDD for now." 
    In addition, most frequencies below 2000 MHz are dedicated to FDD transmission, with upstream and downstream in separate bands. This produces problems with upstream signaling, often a major issue for lower frequencies. http://bit.ly/2or4or8

*** The Broadband Forum thanks all the speakers and staff that made the BASE Summits a great event. Plan ahead for the BBF Quarterly Meeting in Athens, March 26-29 and the Summit alongside (psa) 

Björnson Publishes Massive MIMO Networks: Spectral, Energy, and Hardware Efficiencyhttp://bit.ly/Bjornson
Professor Björnson's book comes at an auspicious moment. British Telecom, Deutsche Telekom, & France Telecom/Orange recently committed to large deployments of Massive MIMO.at the recent Huawei Mobile Broadband Forum. The book contends, "A lot of classic 'wisdom' about Massive MIMO is questionable because it is based on too simplistic system models."
   The book presents alternatives over 516 pages, rigorous, loaded with lemmas, corollaries, and math. For a professional monograph, the writing style is clear.
    Stanford Professor Goldsmith has told me a deep understanding of capabilities of systems with multiple receivers and transmitters is one of the most important problems in communications. Shannon's Law is well understood for a single transmitter and receiver, but many systems now are more complicated. http://bit.ly/Bjornson

*** IoT Evolution Expo Orlando Jan 22-25
5 Collocated events, 80 Sessions, 250 Speakers, 2,000 Attendees & Unlimited opportunity http://bit.ly/2BqDZ4o (ad) Programmed by Carl Ford, one of the best

Net Policy News (Gfast will be back next issue.)
The world needs a good news source on Internet and telecom policy. I hope to create one. www.netpolicynews.com

Professor Noam's "Many Internets"http://bit.ly/ManyNets
Until about 2010, everyone agreed the Net was a "network of networks," not a monolithic entity. There was a central authority, ICANN, keeping track of domain names, but that was a minor administrative function. 
    Columbia Professor Noam suggests we might be better off accepting that some nations or groups might want to organize their networks differently. It's easy to see demand for an Internet with much more effective filters against material some think harmful to children. (Any 10 year old can easily find porn today. Many do.)
     Internet translation is getting better very quickly. You might want an "Internet" that translates everything into your language. Google Chrome translation isn't perfect but I was able to research most of this story on Russian language sites. With a few more years progress, I might welcome an alternate that brings me everything in English, including caching for better performance.
     De facto, Internet news is already split, as hundreds of millions only get their news from Facebook. Google AMP pages, including for news, also favor selected parts of the net
     Centralizing the DNS doesn't prevent censorship, as the Chinese have demonstrated. There are many Jewish and Muslim fundamentalists who want to block what they consider blasphemy and limit free speech. See http://www.nytimes.com/2012/05/21/nyregion/ultra-orthodox-jews-hold-rally-on-internet-at-citi-field.html . More from Noam http://bit.ly/ManyNets

Russia Orders Alternate Root Internet Systemhttp://bit.ly/RussiaDNS
It's actually practical and not necessarily a problem.The Security Council of the Russian Federation, headed by Vladimir Putin, has ordered the "government to develop an independent internet infrastructure for BRICS nations, which would continue to work in the event of global internet malfunctions ... This system would be used by countries of the BRICS bloc – Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa." RT
     Columbia University Professor Eli Noam and then ICANN CEO Fadi Chehadé have both said such a system is perfectly practical as long as there is robust interconnection.
     Actually, the battle over ICANN and domain names is essentially symbolic. Managing the DNS is a relatively insignificant task, more clerical than governing. ICANN Chair Steve Crocker pointed out they had very little to do with policy. 
     Some will claim this is about blocking free speech but that's rhetoric. Russia doesn't need to fiddle with the DNS for censorship, as the Chinese have demonstrated. The wonders of the Internet will continue so long as the resulting nets" are robustly connected. The ICANN and U.S. policy goal should be to help create that system for interconnection. 
    I expect contentions that “The Russians are taking over our Internet” and “They are splitting the Internet.” The Internet is a “Network of Networks.” It is not a monolith so what would “splitting” it mean or do? 
    After the WCIT, China realized that ICANN and the DNS are side issues not worth bothering about. They have been building alternate institutions including the World Internet Summit in Wuzhan and the BRICs conferences.  The Chinese have put their main work where decisions that matter are made. Wireless standards are set by 3GPP, where nothing can be approved without China's consent.
     The American battle at ITU is proving to be a historic mistake.
Why does Russia want an independent Internet?
    They fear that Western sanctions on Russia could cripple the Russian Net. Communications minister, Nikolay Nikiforov, worries about, "a scenario where our esteemed partners would suddenly decide to disconnect us from the internet." I think that's highly unlikely but Nikiforov points out, “Recently, Russia is being addressed in a language of unilateral sanctions: first, our credit cards are being cut off; then the European Parliament says that they’ll disconnect us from SWIFT."
     It makes sense for the Russians to be prepared for such a contingency as the Cold War has been warming up on both sides. "Britain's top military chief Air Chief Marshal Sir Stuart Peach just made headlines warning Russian subs "could CRIPPLE Britain by cutting undefended undersea internet cables." Much more http://bit.ly/RussiaDNS

ICANN Continues Excluding Russia & China From the Boardhttp://bit.ly/CEOPromises
No wonder Russia wants an alternate root. Three years ago, ICANN CEO Fadi Chehadé promised "a seat at the table" to Chinese Premier Li. ICANN welched and this year added two more Americans. 
    Almost all the ICANN board is from the U.S. and close allies; only about 4 of the 18 board members are from countries on the other side of the North/South divide in Internet policy.  Claiming ICANN represents the Global Internet is inappropriate. China is 1/3rd of the Internet but has no representation on the board. 
     I know many of the board members. They are all basically honorable but generally share a strong opinion on North-South issues. 
     Larry Strickling of the U.S. government knew just what he was doing with the IANA transition. He handed over to a board with similar positions as the U.S. government.  
     "The system is unsustainable while it excludes half the world," I have been saying since 2012. More, including the transcript of Fadi's statements,http://bit.ly/CEOPromises

Sorry, Ajit Pai: Smaller Telcos Did Not Reduce Investment After NN Rulinghttp://bit.ly/SorryPai
Pai justifies his NN choice with the claim, "The impact has been particularly serious for smaller Internet service providers." #wrong (Actually, NN has minimal effects on investment, up or down, I’m convinced. Competition, new technology, customer demand and similar are far more important.)
     The two largest suppliers to “smaller ISPs” saw sales go up. Adtran's sales the most recent nine months were $540M, up from $473M the year before. 2016 was $636M, 2015 $600M. Calix the last nine months sold $372M, up from $327M. The full year 2016 was $459M, up from $407M in 2015. Clearfield, a supplier of fiber optic gear, was up 8% in sales in the smaller ISPs.
      There is nothing in the data from others that suggests an alternate trend. Anyone could have found this data in a few minutes from the company quarterly reports.
     The results in larger companies are ambiguous. I can "prove" capex went up or went down by selecting the right data. The four largest companies' capex - two/thirds of the total - went up from $52.7B in 2015 to $55.7B in 2016. The result remains positive after making sensible adjustments for mergers and acquisitions. That's as close to "proving" that NN led to increased spending as the facts chosen to prove the opposite.
      Actually, whether capex went up or down in 2016 tells us almost nothing about the choice on neutrality. Everyone knows a single datapoint could be random or due to other causes. Much more, including the source of the errors http://bit.ly/SorryPai

Elders Bearing Witness: Vint, Timbl, & Many Morehttp://bit.ly/VintTim
Vint Cerf, Tim Berners-Lee, Steve Wozniak and more than a dozen true Internet pioneers wrote Congress to protect Neutrality. The best Congress money can buy didn't listen but I wanted to reproduce their letter. 
    I hope they are wrong believing "is an imminent threat to the Internet we worked so hard to create." My take is the impact will be moderate in the short run. 
From the letter: 
We are the pioneers and technologists who created and now operate the Internet, and some of the innovators and business people who, like many others, depend on it for our livelihood. ... The FCC’s proposed Order is based on a flawed and factually inaccurate understanding of Internet technology. These flaws and inaccuracies were documented in detail in a 43-page-long joint comment signed by over 200 of the most prominent Internet pioneers and engineers and submitted to the FCC on July 17, 2017.
     Despite this comment, the FCC did not correct its misunderstandings, but instead premised the proposed Order on the very technical flaws the comment explained. The technically-incorrect proposed Order ... More, including the full list, http://bit.ly/VintTim

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Volume 18, #9  Dec 16, 2017

Nov 30

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Breaking: Verizon announced 5G to 30M homes. Reporters from the Wall Street Journal to the Albanian Times treated this as big news. I had the story May 2, if I may brag a little. “The decision had been made to go to a one-third to one-half the United States.” Key takeaways: "Every variable tested during the trials came out better than assumed," including 600 meter median reach. 5G mmWave is so cheap capex won't go up.

On the contrary, BT, FT, & DT recently said they would go slow on 5G mmWave (2022-2024 for most.) They already cover nearly their entire country with broadband; Verizon only about one quarter of the U.S. VZ has incentive to build out of market; the Europeans don’t. More below.

London: Princess Leia was here at the Huawei MBBF. Huawei hosted a 5G demo of a woman suspended in space. It wasn’t actually Leia, but you almost expected the highly realistic 3D rendered figure to start saying “Help me Obi-Wan Kenobi. You’re our only hope.” (It also was on a special 2D screen rather than a hologram floating in mid-air.)

A few feet away, attendees were invited to play goalie is a small soccer cage. Your eyes would be covered by a VR rig, through which you’d see the actual soccer ball be kicked at you. Most of the time, the VR-enabled player blocked the shot. 

BT CEO Gavin Patterson, DT CTO Bruno Jacobfeuerborn, and FT/Orange SVP Arnaud Vamparys all expressed hesitation about large 5G builds. “There’s no business case,” all three declared, although they hope that will change. In 2019-2020, they will promote their 5G work, but intend to go slow spending until 2022-2024.

Patterson, Jacobfeuerborn, and Vamparys all endorsed Massive MIMO and said it would be used on their networks. TDD Massive MIMO is ready to triple LTE performance at a cost so low Huawei expects to sell it in sub Saharan Africa. That will add England, France, and Germany to the Massive MIMO map. http://massivemimo.rocks/MMrocks has more reporting on Massive than any other site on the web. 

*** Telefonica Deploys ASSIA’s GPON Expresse Solution
ClearView support for Wi-Fi and Expresse are now available for both DSL & GPON http://bit.ly/2gElPYq (ad) 

Verizon 5G: "Every variable tested during the trials came out better than assumed."http://bit.ly/VZ5Gevery
A gigabit median at 600 meters. A year ago, most experts expected mmWave to be limited to 150-250 meters. Earlier this year, Verizon mentioned good results at 400 meters. Now, Verizon is often seeing excellent results to 600 meters and further. A gigabit is common. 

The result is that far fewer new cells are required.  The cost is coming in so low Verizon does not expect to raise their capital spending. "Management stated that overall capital expenditures would not change substantially during the 5G rollout as internal resources are shifted from the 4G to the 5G platform."

It will be fixed only in 2018, with Verizon promising to support mobile as soon as the technology is available. Intel and Qualcomm expect 5G phones in production in 2019.

Verizon will do five cities late in 2018, starting with Sacramento, an AT&T town. They promise competitive prices, which will be required to reach their goal of 30% market share. Both Verizon and AT&T expect whoever covers a city first will win 20% to 40% away from cable or DSL. It's a land grab situation, which I expect will inspire AT&T to move fast as well. 

Verizon will probably choose two vendors among Ericsson, Nokia, and Samsung. Samsung had few 4G builds outside of Asia, but has been investing heavily for half a decade. http://bit.ly/VZ5Gevery

"The Business Case Isn't There." Why BT, China Telecom, DT, FT, Telefonica Slowing on mmWavehttp://bit.ly/2AnjCWzBTDTFTNo
At Huawei's London MBBF, BT CEO Gavin Patterson went first, saying, "The business case isn't there." DT CTO Bruno Jacobfeuerborn, adding "For 5G, Deutsche Telekom still has no business models."  FT/Orange SVP Arnaud Vamparys followed with a second agreement.

3,000 miles away, Verizon was finalizing the announcement that they would rush to deploy ~30M homes of 5G mmWave. 

Verizon landlines cover only about 1/4th of the U.S. They need an offering to compete with cable and DSL. They believe the new one gig wireless service will win 20-40% of the landline customers. AT&T is thinking the same way and will probably invest to keep up with Verizon.  

The Europeans have a landline offering throughout their territory.  All of these companies will begin deploying in 2019 & 2020 because it's a political necessity. Expect plenty of hype and pr. They also need to train their people and develop systems for when they do build. 

But the current plan of each company is to go slow until 2022-2024. http://bit.ly/2AnjCWzBTDTFTNo

England, France, and Germany Promise Massive MIMOhttp://bit.ly/MMBTDTFT
BT CEO Gavin Patterson, DT CTO Bruno Jacobfeuerborn, and FT/Orange SVP Arnaud Vamparys all endorsed Massive MIMO at Huawei's London MBBF.  They spoke one after the other at Huawei's Global Mobile Broadband Forum in London on November 14. 

BT has a Massive MIMO rig in active testing.They only have 15 MHz of TDD 2.6 spectrum, although they have 50 MHz of FDD spectrum. They are actively watching the development of FDD MM, especially as the 3.5 auction continues to be delayed. They could add roughly 70% to network capacity if OFCOM allowed them to switch the FDD spectrum to TDD. They support MM research at Bristol University.

Deutsche Telekom is trialing 3.5GHz Massive MIMO. DT has so much LTE capacity they are promoting hybrid boxes for DSL and LTE. They have carefully not promised any upgrades to the landline network to 20% of the population. That suggests they intend to do what AT&T & Verizon are planning: turn off the wired network in a large share of the country.

Orange/FT MM could be particularly important in Orange's dozen African networks. Because Africa has few wires, seriously expanded wireless capacity is the only way for a decent video-grade Internet. http://bit.ly/MMBTDTFT

*** "I'm very proud of our new Amendment 3 chipset," says David Baum, CEO, Sckipio. "The performance is breathtaking, Compared to our previous chipset, It delivers four times the vectoring capability, twice the bonding speeds, and supports coordinated DTA for symmetric-like performance in both downstream and upstream." link (ad) 

Iliad Free Already Bringing Italian Down Priceshttp://bit.ly/freeital
3 to 4 good. 4 to 3 bad. Xavier Niel's Free Mobile France offers a 100-gigabyte cap on their 20 euro service, which Jennie bought in Paris. For 20 euros, Telecom Italia offers 5-10  gigabytes. The anecdotal evidence is strong that prices move 10-20% when a market goes from 4-3 or 3-4 primary carriers.

Like Ambani's Reliance Jio in India, Xavi is building a state-of-the-art network with costs much lower than the existing players. Vittorio Colao of Vodafone knows he'll have to respond. "When you have a big warship and the pirates are approaching, it makes sense to send out the commandos in the speed boats.” 

With government-backed Open Fiber also building, Italy will eventually catch up to Europe. http://bit.ly/freeital

*** The Broadband Forum thanks all the speakers and staff that made the BASE Summits a great event. Plan ahead for the BBF Quarterly Meeting in Athens, March 26-29 and the Summit alongside (psa) 

10,000 MM Cell Sites Shipped - All TDD, Not FDDhttp://bit.ly/MMAllTDD
Zhu Huimin indicates Huawei is moving to high volume production. I once suggested, "Don't believe any equipment claims until 10,000 are deployed." Most problems, including those from heavy use, will appear by then. By that test, Massive MIMO - at least the TDD variety - is now solid. The first announcements of Massive MIMO commercial use were just after a year ago. Softbank Japan was the pioneer; I broke the news that China Telecom was also buying thousands. Although Huawei does have a 32x32 antenna FDD Massive MIMO, her recommendation is to stick with 8x8 in FDD spectrum.

There is no doubt that TDD MM works and will rapidly deploy around the world. Two Huawei executives confirmed to me Massive MIMO is ready for Africa. The need is great; there are very few landlines so almost all the Internet connections are mobile.

All are TDD; FDD is only in trials, with major problems still to solve. Massive MIMO is ready for hockey stick growth. http://bit.ly/MMAllTDD

*** IoT Evolution Expo Orlando Jan 22-25
5 Collocated events, 80 Sessions, 250 Speakers, 2,000 Attendees & Unlimited opportunity 
http://bit.ly/2BqDZ4o (ad) Programmed by Carl Ford, one of the best

U,S. Q3: Cable +540K, Telcos -155K. Telcos clobbered across > 1/2 the countrhttp://bit.ly/q3clobber
"In the first three quarters of 2017, cable companies added about 2,000,000 broadband subscribers, while Telcos lost about 430,000 subscribers." Bruce Leichtman. Ten years of telco dis-investment across half the United States is allowing cablecos to rise from 55% of the market to 64%. They are pulling further away every quarter. 

AT&T's stock went down $13B on they day they warned about disappointing numbers. If they had spent even a fraction of $13B on investment, their numbers would have been fine. Verizon's investment % has gone down for several years; this quarter, they lost 10,000  broadband customers.

Frontier lost 63,000 subscribers, The stock has gone down 85% this year to a level that implies a serious bankruptcy risk. That is unlikely before 2020 because they don't have large debts coming due. They have been dis-investing for years, with capex less than depreciation. Centurylink lost 101,000 for the same reason. 

I only have one choice for a decent Internet connection, Time Warner cable. Verizon can only supply 3 megabits to my building in Manhattan. About half of the U.S. has only one source, the cableco. Cable prices have gone up 30% during a period the actual costs of broadband have been flat to down. That's a market failure. http://bit.ly/q3clobber


Gfast News
I’m still working through remarkable presentations from the Broadband Forum events. Michael Weissman, Bernd Hesse and team did a remarkable job choosing the speakers. http://bit.ly/BBFBASE

Deutsche Telecom: 35b Supervectoring Delayed to 2019 http://bit.ly/35blater
Broadcom is now over 3 years late. DT briefed German reporters after their financial call and revealed 35b was now delayed until 2019. 35b should deliver 200+ meg downloads 500-600 meters, a crucial tool for DT, which is losing share to cable. Cable now covers about 70% of Germany and is expanding. DT now only offers 50-100 megabit DSL while cable is often 400 megabits, going to a gigabit. 

The problem is software; the hardware is shipping and supposedly will work. DT says 35b is not ready to turn on. Broadcom in 2015 said 35b was in "production" in the press release below. Alcatel in early 2016 said to expect complete systems very soon. "35g is very similar to 17a so there should be little delay."

Broadcom's problems are leading major telcos and vendors to have a plan B, using Sckipio G.fast. DT itself is planning extensive G.fast deployments in 2019, mostly in apartment buildings. http://bit.ly/35blater

Gigabit 100 Meters - Unless the Wires are Lousy http://bit.ly/gflousy
Speeds are fine, "Unless there's a line problem." I've been reporting for three years that ~10% of lines have problems. In the chart by Rami Verbin of Sckipio, he finds G.fast goes ~130 meters on good lines. Poor lines have about half the reach. 

His chart roughly matches the reports from Swisscom, Belgacom, and England for both G.fast & vectored DSL. The 10% with problems can cause the majority of the line-related complaints to support. The angry customers drive up cost.

Rami's solution to reach the gigabit is bonding, supported on the Sckipio chips. Verbin made some additional points:

  • 4 gigabits is possible by bonding two decent 2 gigabit lines.
  • Even in a service from remote cabinets, ~25% are close enough to get a full gigabit."
  • cDTA and iDTA are practical ways to deliver much higher upstream by switching some bandwidth from downstream to upstream only when needed.
  • 35B will probably be similar but Deutsche Telecom doesn't expect to deploy until 2019. http://bit.ly/gflousy
*** The Broadband Forum thanks all the speakers and staff that made the BASE Summits a great event. Plan ahead for the BBF Quarterly Meeting in Athens, March 26-29 and the Summit alongside (psa) 
AT&T Wants Coax 2-5 Gigabit G.fast. Very Soon. http://bit.ly/ATTCoax
AT&T faces intense competition from cable, talking about 10 gigabits in both directions. (Cable will only be 1 gig down, ~100 meg up, until ~2021.) AT&T wants something to brag about as well.

AT&T gained millions of lines of coax as part of the DirecTV deal. Alcatel and Huawei are leading the development of G.mgfast. That uses 424 MHz, full duplex, to achieve ~2.5 gigabits in both directions. The reach on telco twisted pair is only about 30 meters. On coax, those speeds can probably extend far enough to service most apartment buildings. Using 848 MHz, speeds can reach 5 gigabits. The ITU standards group has been aiming for 2019-2020 for G.mgfast, too slow for AT&T's marketers. David Titus wants a high-speed standard for coax "early in 2018." He believes that is "doable."http://bit.ly/ATTCoax

PLDT Puts Philippines on the G.fast Map - Slowly http://bit.ly/GFPLDTMap
"The telecommunications duopoly is about to end,” President Duterte promises. expecting the competition to improve services and lower prices. He invited the Chinese to be the third player in the Philippines in a meeting with Chinese Premier Li Keqiang.

Incumbent PLDT is responding by connecting 100 buildings with G.fast and 35b Super-vectoring and some other places. PLDT is buying the gear from Huawei. Foreign-owned PLDT has a near monopoly on the Philippine Internet (85%) and minimal regulation. Their capex has been going down despite a dismal Philippine Internet. Filipinos have the slowest Internet in Asia, as you can see in the chart below from Akamai.

China Telecom is expanding internationally, including putting $6B on the table for bankrupt Oi Brazil. China Telecom has fiber to "essentially all of Shanghai and many other cities." Working with the Russian Railways, they have fiber across the "Belt and Road" and on through Europe. China Mobile has major investments in Thailand and Pakistan. Without a doubt, either could build throughout the Philippines in a very short time. Think Gig LTE to 85-95% of the country in 18 months, with Massive MIMO in the densest areas. http://bit.ly/GFPLDTMap

--------------------------------
Ending Net Neutrality: Copps is Wrong "It Will End the Internet As We Know It." Pai is Wrong It Will Drive Up Investment http://bit.ly/NNmachine

We've all heard too much about NN, which I've been reporting for 20 years. I support it because I don't want Randall Stephenson of AT&T deciding what I should watch on TV. The long-run effect is negative. 

The claims from some people who agree with me are ridiculous.  "According to former FCC commissioner Michael Copps, ending net neutrality will end the Internet as we know it." http://bit.ly/2it1FkY Michael knows I respect him, but this is ridiculous. Equally unlikely in Pai's belief this will significantly raise investment. His key evidence is that AT&T cut investment, which he attributes to Wheeler’s NN. That would be true iff AT&T has a time machine; well before anyone expected Wheeler to be strong, they had told Wall Street the cuts were coming. ("We pretty much finished the LTE build so we will reduce spending.")

The only major change likely in the next few years is some video will go up in price. The actual fights are about the cost of connecting for high volumes of data, mostly video. No one is going to redirect you and me from the N.Y. Times to Breitbart News. 

Pai could discover his error by listening to AT&T CFO John Stephens next Tuesday at UBS. CEO Randall claimed he would raise his $22B capex if NN died. 10% of that would be about $2B. He also said he would invest another $billion if he got the tax cut. 

If they were going to live up to this, Stephens would almost be required by SEC rules to tell Wall Street capex was headed up to ~$25B. He won't, but Pai is so set in his beliefs he won't be able to believe that. http://bit.ly/NNmachine

 

Nov 6

G.fast News: Deutsche Wants a Gigabit, Finally Realizes 50 Meg Isn't Enough,1.6 Gig in Sckipio-Calix Test, Reverse Power 4 Port DSLAM for Australia, Australia Makes it Official: G.fast to Million Plus, 2 Bonded 212 Lines = 3 Gigabits

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Angelina Jolie, Ashley Judd and dozens of others have exposed Harvey Weinstein. Every industry, including ours, has monsters like that, rarely stopped.
    I choose instead to highlight some women who are driving us forward. Nicola Palmer and Sanyogita Sangupta lead Verizon’s 5G effort, the most successful in the world. They will spend $billions and have already put hundreds of cells in the field  
     Verizon jumped ahead when almost all others held back. Charla Rath persuaded the FCC to offer gigahertz of mmWave spectrum three years before the official WRC plan. They supported the NYU work to make a more accurate channel model.
     With allies, VZ created their own 5G standard in 2015 because they didn’t want to wait for 3GPP.  The system commercial in 2018 and will do mobile in 2019 if the handsets are ready.  
     “The race is on” between Verizon and AT&T to be first in each market.10%-20% of people almost everywhere hate their broadband provider and likely to switch to mmWave. The U.S. build is going fast because the two giants expect to find a large market replacing landlines outside of their existing region.
     If they are first in a land grab.


The Shadow CTO shadowcto.com 
Our new site for decision support. The Wireless Troika - More antennas, More spectrum, More cells - is a good way to look at your choices. (Today, 4x4 MIMO antennas and CA to use more spectrum you own. Massive MIMO is working beyond that.) There's a Reality Check on G.fast (deploying at dozens, current speeds ~750 meg per AT&T, second gen chips in 2018 easily a gigabit.)
I thought it might be interesting to consider running a network.


Why AT&T - Time Warner is on Hold
AT&T won't make the concessions the Justice Department staff are demanding. One report is they want a spin-off of HBO; another says it would be CNN. On BellSouth and DirecTV, AT&T bamboozled DC and made almost no real concessions. With Randall Stephenson being one of the very few to publicly support Donald Trump, they expected no problems from the government. The spinoffs mentioned do not make a big difference in the deal. AT&T just doesn't want to give anything. 
Two notes: That AT&T-TW doesn't come under antitrust because it is a vertical merger is bs on the law and the facts. The movie studios were forced to divest the movie theaters in a textbook case, a similar "creation-distribution" situation. AT&T is prominently saying "We are an entertainment company," after the DIrecTV purchase and their video distribution. They are even producing new TV series. So there is a direct conflict.
An insider thinks Trump will insist that AT&T muzzle his critics at CNN. Courage, Randall.

Why Sprint & T-Mobile Didn't Merge
The common story is that testosterone-fueled Masayoshi Son wants power so much he killed the $60B Sprint-T-Mobile deal. A deeper look suggests that DT wasn't willing to pay the price Masa-san wanted to give up control. DT low-balled the offer, thinking Sprint had no choice but to give in. (Craig Moffett's analysis allowed an inference that without the deal Sprint might be insolvent soon.) Masa-san is a brilliant trickster who may yet sell to T-Mobile. The reduced competition would divert perhaps $20B/year from consumers to telcos.


Wireless Network Design: The Troika http://bit.ly/wtroika
The three basic tools for capacity more antennas, more spectrum and more cells. 
     Adding antennas is usually the cheapest choice in 2018. Nearly every telco is going to four (4x4 MIMO.) Adding spectrum is very attractive when you have some unused but expensive if you have to buy it. Adding cells was the approach before LTE-A in 2014 permitted aggregation. Since then, tower building has almost stopped in the developed world. Small cells in targeted areas are coming into fashion, but their numbers will be modest until mmWave.
     Any upgrade should include 256 QAM for more bits per Hz. More http://bit.ly/wtroika

*** "I'm very proud of our new Amendment 3 chipset," says David Baum, CEO, Sckipio. "The performance is breathtaking, Compared to our previous chipset, It delivers four times the vectoring capability, twice the bonding speeds, and supports coordinated DTA for symmetric-like performance in both downstream and upstream." http://bit.ly/2zj8CLY (ad) 

5G Millimeter Wave Reality Check http://bit.ly/RCmmwave
Verizon & Korea are building. NTT DOCOMO & China Mobile are close. Many others are mostly holding back, doing little until 2021-2023.
     2019 is likely for mobile phones, Qualcomm promises chips for retail phones, as TSMC ramps 7 nm process to produce the chips. I expect the early phones will be power hungry and battery short. 
     Latency will be 5-10 milliseconds to the cloud controller intelligence. 1-2 milliseconds will be measured from the tower to the phone, but that's meaningless until and unless intelligence moves to the edge. That's likely very rare for a decade because there's no apparent market for 1 ms. 
     Most "use cases" are bogus according to experts in connected cars, virtual reality, and telemedicine. Gerhard Fettweis's Tactile Internet is inspiring but years or decades away most places. More http://bit.ly/RCmmwave

*** Telefonica Deploys ASSIA’s GPON Expresse Solution
ClearView support for Wi-Fi and Expresse are now available for both DSL & GPON http://bit.ly/2gElPYq (ad) 

G.fast Reality Check http://bit.ly/gfreality
It works and is deployed in dozens of places, including British Telecom and AT&T.
     T reports typical speeds of 750 megabits, up and down combined. The highest speeds go less than 150 meters, which is fine for fiber to the basement. In 2018, 212 MHz chips will double that speed. Plans include 10M homes passed by BT and a million at nbn Australia. Much more, including details of vendors and likely 2018 changes http://bit.ly/gfreality

*** Columbia CITI Nov 17 State of Telecom
Eli Noam and Bob Atkinson have the very best in world telecom to the university for this annual event. It was unmissable for anyone who cared about policy. This year, it's going online, http://bit.ly/2zbfXdv (psa)

Qualcomm claims $trillions of 5G benefits from applications that don't need 5G http://bit.ly/bogustrillions
Steve Mollenkopf's creative engineers produce many of the world's best chips. It's time for him to stop promoting a bogus claim "5G Expected to Create 22 Million Jobs, Produce Up to $12.3 Trillion of Goods and Services by 2035." They offer no evidence or logic that leads to that conclusion. They hired IHS Markit to do a "study" and Berkeley Professor David Teece to sign off on it. 
    The substance of the study is a laundry list of future services, from drones to telemedicine to IoT to VR to Smart Grid. (They provide no source for their estimates of the values of each, but added together they do come to enormous figures.)
     The problem: Nearly none of this requires 5G and the report gives no reason to believe their value-add should be attributed to 5G. Nearly all of them work just fine on LTE or Wi-Fi and do not require 5G 

Verizon's 5G Gear From Texas! Startup http://bit.ly/Texas5G
Farooq Khan says Phazr, his small company near Dallas, can compete with the giants for the millions of 5G small cells soon to deploy. Verizon is listening and is testing the Phazr equipment. Their target was to be ready by the end of 2017.
     Phazr's base station is about two feet high and a foot wide. That's large enough for 384 antennas per sector, three sectors per cell. That's massive, massive MIMO. It's made possible by the very small size of mmWave antennas.
     Phazr's system uses mmWave for the download but ordinary spectrum below 6 GHz for the upload. This has the advantage of requiring much less power in the mobile phone, producing less heat. http://bit.ly/Texas5G

Next Gen Wireless Nov 29. Worth the trip.
Mike Dano and Fierce have put together a one-day event with some of the most interesting people in U.S. wireless. These are the people building the networks, not the salesmen and political silver tongues who plague most events. If I have the travel budget, I'll go myself. The price is very reasonable for a professional event. 
     AT&T is sending Melissa Arnoldi, Verizon Nicola Palmer, T-Mobile Karri Kuoppamakia and Sprint Günther Ottendorfer. Durga Malladi and Nokia’s Mike Murphy. Charter Cable is sending Craig Cowden; anyone who thinks Comcast and Charter aren't serious about 5G is uninformed. (Although buying Sprint may be their ultimate decision. http://bit.ly/2h8v6ob

G.fast News
A remarkable 400 people attended the very strong Broadband Forum BASE events in Berlin and Las Vegas. Trevor confirmed BT would pass the million this year. Cioffi projected “Waveguide DSL” could carry 10 gigabits a kilometer as well as a terabit 100 meters. Werner sees a 4X improvement in upstream with cDTA. Much more in next issue.

Deutsche Wants a Gigabit, Finally Realizes 50 Meg Isn't Enough http://bit.ly/2zeZ5oZ
Deutsche Telekom is finally realizing that 50 megabit DSL won't make it against gigabit cable. VP Franz Seiser is blunt. "We must change radically, become disruptive and, above all, throw away things," he proclaims at BBWF. After years of DT insisting 50 megabits is plenty, we now hear "it is about Gigabit products" from DT's Robert Soukup.  
    A lucky building in Frankfurt will receive 500+ megabit service as ultra-conservative Deutsche Telekom experiments with G.fast. Soukup told BBWF, "We're going to have a field test in Frankfurt with G.fast and Fiber To The Building (FTTB.) We will know by the end of the year if this is the right way to go." Hint to Soukup: Yes it is. G.fast is working well at a dozen telcos I;ve talked to.
     The details are surprising. DT is going for CORD, Open Source, Calix, and Radisys. http://bit.ly/2zeZ5oZ

*** The new Telebyte Guide to Testing Gfast follows the Broadband Forum IR-337 Gfast test specification, the same used by the University of New Hampshire (UNH-IOL) for Gfast certification testing. Free download http://bit.ly/telebyte (ad) It is the best technical guide to G.fast  I have seen. Grab it. Dave

1.6 Gig in Sckipio-Calix Test http://bit.ly/Calix16
A telco tells me they are getting impressive early results from the Calix 48 port DSLAM with the new Sckipio 212 MHz chips. There still is work to do but this is encouraging. 
    Carriers want DSLAMs with more than 16 ports to reduce the deployment costs from the basement or larger field cabinets. Speed matters to the marketing side of the company; AT&T's CEO believes he must offer a true gigabit to match cable. (They've been getting ~750 megabits with first generation chips. http://bit.ly/Calix16

*** Self-Healing Wi-Fi With ASSIA Real-Q 
Beyond-the-Box visibility and control extends quality-of-experience (QoE) beyond the gateway to the end-user device for every device in the home. Based on ASSIA technology, proven across 80 million subscribers http://bit.ly/2dj7FJk (ad)

Reverse Power 4 Port DSLAM for Australia http://bit.ly/NetcommRP
Australia is connecting 1M homes to G.fast, some with a Netcomm distribution point mini-DSLAM. It's a small unit designed for pole or pit mounting. It's waterproof, pressure proof, and temperature resistant. Their matching home modem is bittorrent friendly, with two USB ports for a hard drive dedicated to sharing.
     A reverse power unit at the customer, the NDD-0100-01, can save the cost of bringing power to the DSLAM. They don't expect many orders until the second half of 2018, as nbn is waiting for the second generation chips. Netcomm demonstrated RP with BT Openreach in August. http://bit.ly/NetcommRP

*** Sckipio's Three advances are taking G.fast to the next level.http://bit.ly/Sckipio (ad)

Australia Makes it Official: G.fast to Million Plus http://bit.ly/GFAussie
No news here. In September, 2015, I reported Australia's nbn Going G.fast. This June. I reported the million home fiber to the curb (kerb?) was beginning. Unfortunately, they are no closer to figuring out where to find the needed $10B to $20B to cover the cost overruns. Instead, the parties are battling in Parliament about who is to blame. http://bit.ly/GFAussie

2 Bonded 212 Lines = 3 Gigabits http://bit.ly/twobonded
Sckipio at BBWF is demonstrating 3 gigabits down, nearly a gigabit up, over two phone lines, bonded. Twice the bandwidth (212 MHz instead of 106 MHz) times two lines is fast. Sckipio does great demos; at CES, they showed G.fast first generation chips delivering almost 1 gig upstream.
    “Sckipio is pushing Gfast to astonishing speeds with production silicon,” CEO David Baum proclaims. Calix is using the SCK23000 chipset in their 48 port gig+ DSLAM at the show. http://bit.ly/twobonded

Briefs

  • Carl Russo of Calix was very optimistic on the financial call, reporting increased sales every quarter. The shift of the company to software, especially SDN, is moving well. The losses on deployment services are turning around. In particular, they are more carefully defining what is included in their contracts, thereby controlling costs. That said, losses will continue through Q4. I believe increased Cloud and SDN software sales bode well going forward. Emerging customers Verizon & Deutsche Telekom have great potential.
  • “The silicon for 212 is very immature,” says Steve Collins of Netcomm Wireless, who doesn’t expect it to be ready for a year. He’s working with, and presumably discussing, the Broadcom chip.
  • The Broadband Forum will have their next BASE (Broadband Access Summit Event) in Greece, Bernd Hesse writes. The date isn’t set. 


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Volume 18, #7 Nov 6, 2017Oct 23

G.fast 20 Gigabit DSL - Live Demo http://bit.ly/2xZBUiZ; Calix Showing 48 Port G.fast DSLAM http://bit.ly/calix48; Will BT's 10M G.fast be Fast Enough to Protect the Company? http://bit.ly/2zyt6wJ; 212 MHz Likely Late 2018 http://bit.ly/2y0VaaT

un Zhang and his Chinese telecom colleagues are heroes. They have connected directly to fiber more than 272M homes, twice as much as the entire rest of the world. LTE coverage is 98% and nearly a billion have signed on. Prices are relatively low. 

We all know the nature of the Chinese government but I can also admire the achievements.

A practical problem has kept me in New York rather than the events in Berlin. Please keep your ears open for mail and send it to me, This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it..


AT&T's Possible Dream: "We Will Spend $5B Building Two of the World's Best Networks After Harvey &  Sonoma." http://bit.ly/2gwYh3K
Randall Stephenson, AT&T CEO, did not proclaim, AT&T will spend $5B building one of the world s best networks for Texas and Louisiana. That s our contribution to the recovery after Harvey. He should just do it, now adding North California.
Larry Babbio of Verizon responded that way to the World Trade Center. "Just watch us," he replied to my suggestion Verizon bring fiber to lower Manhattan soon after 9/11. Verizon built Fios.
The fix is reportedly in for the AT&T takeover despite Trump promising, "AT&T is buying Time Warner and thus CNN a deal we will not approve in my administration because it's too much concentration of power in the hands of too few."
A good time for Randall to be a hero. much more http://bit.ly/2gwYh3K

*** "I'm very proud of our new Amendment 3 chipset," says David Baum, CEO, Sckipio. "The performance is breathtaking, Compared to our previous chipset, It delivers four times the vectoring capability, twice the bonding speeds, and supports coordinated DTA for symmetric-like performance in both downstream and upstream." link (ad)

Hundreds of Thousands Go Wireless Only in Tokyo http://bit.ly/2h2Gh2b
Softbank was startled by large signups for fixed wireless in Tokyo, a city with almost 100% coverage of fiber home. T-Mobile in Austria has also seen a trend.
The new customers were primarily young. They wanted a service they could take with them if they changed apartments. The fiber connects and reconnects are a headache.
Softbank has nominal speeds of hundreds of megabits and practical speeds of at least a couple of dozen megabits in most of Tokyo. That is enough for most people, most of the time. more http://bit.ly/2h2Gh2b

*** Make sure to visit Adtran Booth E102 to see important new products. Please join us on Tues 10:05 Werner Heinrich DTA 10:35 Ryan McCowan NGPON2 11:20 Kurt Raaflaub Fiber to the DP without fiber http://bit.ly/fiberno 11:35 Robert Conger NGPON2; Wed 10:30 Ronan Kelly Keynote 14:00 Robert Conger Open Networking 14:20 Gary Bolton Platform Economy 16:50 Heinrich, Chris Thompson, Jeremy Harris (separate panels); Thurs 16:50 McCowen (ad)

Is Google Go-Long the Future of Fiber Home? http://bit.ly/Ggolong
Cedric Lam on Oct 26 will unveil Go-Long. Google thinks "this new standard can reduce the network operating costs and investment costs." The only information is the press release,
Go-Long is the company's new generation of optical access networks. Described by Google as a new Time and Wavelength Division Multiplexed Super PON (TWDM Super PON), the company believes that this new standard can reduce the network operating costs and investment costs. The company claims that the technology can do this by extending the transmission distance, which can reduce the number of central offices that need to deploy the optical line termination (OLT), significantly reducing equipment, space and power costs.
In other words, they ain't saying anything until the announcement at BBWF. http://bit.ly/Ggolong

*** Telefonica Deploys ASSIA�s GPON Expresse Solution
ClearView support for Wi-Fi and Expresse are now available for both DSL & GPON http://bit.ly/2gElPYq (ad)

50G & 100G Ethernet for Backhaul http://bit.ly/2h2S4NV
Huawei has delivered a testable 50G unit to China Mobile and passed testing at the European Advanced Networking Test Center. They also offer a 100 gigabit unit with four 25 gigabit devices. A 2 x 50G unit is planned that will be air-cooled.
Verizon has chosen 40 gigabit NG-PON2 for small cell backhaul, but most other carriers are choosing ten gigabits. Verizon has been testing NGPON2 from Calix and Adtran for a year and is now deploying hundreds of 5G small cells. more http://bit.ly/2h2S4NV

*** Columbia CITI Nov 17 State of Telecom
Eli Noam and Bob Atkinson have the very best in world telecom to the university for this annual event. It was unmissable for anyone who cared about policy. This year, it's going online, http://bit.ly/2zbfXdv (psa)

272M Fiber Connections in China: The Most Remarkable Achievement in My 20 Years of reporting http://bit.ly/2z2sOSs
Jun Zhang, a senior China Telecom engineer, was surprised when this New York reporter called him and his colleagues heroes. They have connected directly to fiber more than 272M homes, twice as much as the entire rest of the world.
There are well over 300M homes passed. 92% of urban homes are covered by fiber. Cities like Shanghai are close to 100% covered. Nearly all the fiber build was done in five years. Prices are relatively low. I am not blind to the authoritarian Chinese state, but I can also admire the achievements. more http://bit.ly/2z2sOSs

Steve Crocker Exiting ICANN Chair http://bit.ly/2la2uj7
Steve writes, "We have term limits for directors, no more than three consecutive three year terms.  I have reached my limit and am leaving the Board." He has been active literally since the beginning of the Internet. He was part of the UCLA team, led by Len Kleinrock, that connected the first Internet node, back in DARPA days. Steve went on to create the RFC system.
The people who built the Internet are still very active, but we're all getting on in years. Steve, Vint Cerf, Dave Clark, and Bob Kahn are all in their seventies. All of them are justly proud and hopeful the Internet will continue to thrive.
Two-thirds of Internet users are not American or European; China is now one-third of the Internet. No one from mainland China has served on the boards of either ICANN or ISOC. ICANN's new board members are both American.
It is time for a Nixon goes to China moment or the old systems are unsustainable. The Chinese and the other BRICS are already building new alternatives more.http://bit.ly/2la2uj7


G.fast News
The best in the business will be at BBWF in Berlin, many speaking at the Broadband Forum event. A practical problem leaves me back in New York, so please listen closely and send me the news.

20 Gigabit DSL - Live Demo http://bit.ly/2xZBUiZ
The meter reads 20 gigabits.  Jack Zhu had just said, "You have to see this," and pulled me over. It was the first demo of Huawei's four port bonded G.mgfast.
Two boxes perhaps five feet apart, were connected by four lines of cat 6 cable. Each line carried 5 gigabits of prestandard G.mgfast.  The total is 20 gigs, They expect that speed to go 30 meters. They are finding good performance out to 100 meters. more and a picture http://bit.ly/2xZBUiZ

*** At Broadband World Forum Berlin, make sure to visit Sckipio in Booth E101B for the latest advances in G.fast. Don't miss our CTO, Rami Verbin, at the Broadband Forum Access Summit. Sckipio, the leader as G.fast deploys around the world, continues to deliver performance.  http://bit.ly/Sckipio (ad)

Calix Showing 48 Port G.fast DSLAM http://bit.ly/calix48
Testing in a major telco lab. The new Sckipio chip allows daisy-chaining 24 port boards for up to 96 ports. (Other approaches require an external vectoring controller.) Calix has wasted no time developing a 48 port DSLAM, showing this week at BBWF.
The new Calix/Sckipio DSLAM also supports "up to 2 gigabits," although it best to think of that as 1.5 gigabits. The cDTA allows near instantaneous switching of an individual subscriber's bandwidth from downstream to upstream, allowing much faster upstream. more http://bit.ly/calix48

*** Two remarkable Broadband Forum Access Summits will feature speakers including Tom  Starr of AT&T and Trevor Linney of BT. In Berlin at BBWF October 24 http://bit.ly/2hZHBWX In Las Vegas before the Calix Connection event October 29 http://bit.ly/2iHz7Dt (psa) See you there

Will BT's 10M G.fast be Fast Enough to Protect the Company? http://bit.ly/2zyt6wJ
BT is close to a million homes passed with G.fast. Trevor Linney is now leading a rapid rollout, on track for 10M in 2020. BT remains at the forefront of G.fast research and is showing impressive technical capability.
At the management level, BT's beleaguered boss Gavin Patterson quietly made a decision that is enormously risky. To save money, he canceled the original plans for a gigabit network with fiber to the distribution point. Instead, BT is putting DSLAMs at the existing cabinets, reducing speeds to 160 or 330 megabits. That's G.halffast.
New chairman Jan du Plessis may sack Gavin, more gossip http://bit.ly/2zyt6wJ

*** The new Telebyte Guide to Testing Gfast follows the Broadband Forum IR-337 Gfast test specification, the same used by the University of New Hampshire (UNH-IOL) for Gfast certification testing. Free download http://bit.ly/telebyte (ad) It is the best technical guide to G.fast  I have seen. Grab it. Dave

212 MHz Likely Late 2018 http://bit.ly/2y0VaaT
Ryan Ding of Huawei is waiting for updated Broadcom firmware, which he expects before the end of the year. He will then be able to supply units for telco trials "in the first half of 2018."
Ding and everyone else are working diligently to get the DSLAMs ready to deploy in volume as soon as possible, I think late 2018 looks most likely. We won't know for sure until we have several months of tests.
Preliminary reports are that both the Sckipio and Broadcom chips are reaching 1.5 gig. more http://bit.ly/2y0VaaT

Briefs

  • �MediaTek�s recovery will take time as its modem technology is still generations behind market leader Qualcomm.� Stuart Robinson, Strategy Analytics The 835 is pulling Qualcomm far ahead.
  • Moore�s Law, by Arnold Thackray, is an authorized biography full of details fascinating to anyone interested in chips. Gordon Moore was there at the beginning, developing diffusion at Shockley, then bringing it into production at Fairchild, supervising the birth of the planar transistor, and leading the industry for so many years. It�s written with Moore�s spirit of frankness and honesty, as well as his deep collaboration. Most of the book is about the technology and industry and is very strong.
  •   

 

Oct 16

CTO Seizo Inoe of NTT last year thought 2022 for mobile 5G. Now it’s 2019 for Verizon’s large network. and Qualcomm’s phone chips. The tech is moving faster than believed by anyone except the “father of millimeter wave,” Ted Rappaport.

  • I’ve built a 5G mmWave map, starting with Verizon and China Mobile. Korea, Japan, and AT&T may be next. Hundreds are in trials but most of them are pr or bogus. Almost all Europeans think the investment won’t pay off. They will do very little without government orders. 'Incentives' are bs. They rarely work.
  • Randall Stephenson should say "AT&T Will Spend $5B Building Two of the World's Best Networks After Harvey & Sonoma." Gov will pay most of it.
  • Netheads had to fight Bellheads for the right to exist 30 years ago. Subtly, the incumbents are striking back. The otherwise fine NGMN roadmap implies the telcos run everything and collect a mileage tax on every car.

Hangzhou tomorrow. Berlin and Las Vegas the next. Say hello to the round fellow with a beard, wearing a black shirt to stand out. 

Huawei and Adtran are paying my expenses. Thank you. 

G.fast News: 10 Gigabits 500 Meters Over Phone Cables?! http://bit.ly/2xHJCch ; Who needs fiber? Backhaul By a Dozen Bonded DSLs http://bit.ly/fiberno ; Bonded 35b Tester From intec http://bit.ly/2ypGyVM ; What Will Broadcom, Huawei, Metanoia & Nokia Bring To Berlin Broadband; Newsbreak: Nokia's Hidden New SX-16F DSLAM

2019! "You’ll see 5G in 2019 for sure" Qualcomm http://bit.ly/qual2019
2019 Mobile 5G Phones! blazes on ads across the trade media from Qualcomm. "You’ll see 5G in 2019 for sure," Qualcomm CEO Steve Mollenkopf promises. Verizon has begun a huge, rapid deployment of mmWave, with hundreds of sites installed. 


Mollenkopf himself thought it would be 2020, but new technology is allowing him to chop a year off the schedule. His main foundry, TSMC, has begun "risk production" of 7 nm chips, the next generation. It's reasonable to expect volume production in 2019. TSMC is taking delivery in 2018 on $150M EUV machines to improve critical layers. Steve is going for 2019 because he can.

Verizon will be ready to serve mobile 5G "as soon as phones are available." China Mobile and AT&T are also looking to build early. They will be expensive and probably power hogs, but a true gigabit should be possible. ("Gig LTE" will usually be 75-300 megabits to the customer, per Qualcomm.) http://bit.ly/qual2019

*** "I'm very proud of our new Amendment 3 chipset," says David Baum, CEO, Sckipio. "The performance is breathtaking, Compared to our previous chipset, It delivers four times the vectoring capability, twice the bonding speeds, and supports coordinated DTA for symmetric-like performance in both downstream and upstream." link (ad) 

Algeria Fibering 1M. Fiber Ain't Dead http://bit.ly/AKfiber
AT&T is fibering 3M homes/year. Telefonica doing millions in Brazil and most of Spain. France Telecom is well along and nearly all of Portugal covered. Bell Canada recently decided to speed up fiber because cable was killing them. 


After a year of political wrangling, state-owned Algérie Telecom has signed a contract with Huawei and is ready to go. The initial contract is 1M homes servable, with a plan to go to 3M. Wireless networks spread incredibly rapidly across Africa and now fiber (mostly backbone) is also building. http://bit.ly/AKfiber

*** Make sure to visit Adtran Booth E102 to see important new products. Please join us on Tues 10:05 Werner Heinrich DTA 10:35 Ryan McCowan NGPON2 11:20 Kurt Raaflaub Fiber to the DP without fiber http://bit.ly/fiberno 11:35 Robert Conger NGPON2; Wed 10:30 Ronan Kelly Keynote 14:00 Robert Conger Open Networking 14:20 Gary Bolton Platform Economy 16:50 Heinrich, Chris Thompson, Jeremy Harris (separate panels); Thurs 16:50 McCowen (ad) 

NGMN Has Defined a Wireless Future - by the Telcos http://bit.ly/Bellheads
20 top telcos banded together to set a common path for the next thirty years. China Mobile, Deutsche Telekom, AT&T and many others have now produced the NGMN 5G End-to-End Architecture Framework O.8.1. The 36 pages are a blueprint of how the telcos want the future. They've done an extraordinary job making the concepts clear to anyone knowledgeable in today's wireless. 


This is the antithesis of the Internet model, a network of networks connected but operating independently. Implicitly, everything would be under the control of the telcos. They would have standard procedures to work together for international traffic, based on everyone having common QoS control.

Almost no one is noticing. The Bellheads are striking back. http://bit.ly/Bellheads

*** CloudCheck® Wi-Fi optimization platform enables visibility, control, and self-healing of residential Wi-Fi networks. Our new Mobile APP for Service Providers  provides a set of powerful and easy-to-use performance and install assist diagnostics tools for field techs.www.assia-inc.com (ad)

Why are 3 Indian Survivors Spending $B's on Massive MIMO? http://bit.ly/JndiaMass
Competition is fierce and spectrum is short, Reliance Jio spent $20B, built one of the best networks in the world, and gained 100M customers in the first year. Mukesh Ambani's aggressive plans for the 4G $20 (refundable) feature phone will probably add 100M more in the next year or so. Hundreds of millions of Indians are still on 2G. Ambani is ready to spend $B+ in subsidies to bring them to Jio 4G. 


Giant Tata is closing their #4 mobile network, putting 10,000 out of work, writing off billions, and selling off cheaply to Bharti.. #5 Reliance Communications, Ambani's brother's company, is likely to follow. They couldn't compete in the price war. Vodafone and Idea, #2 & #3, are merging to stay alive  

#1 Bharti's strategy in response includes a huge build of Massive MIMO. The other two likely survivors, Jio and Vodafone/Idea, will also do Massive. much more http://bit.ly/JndiaMass

*** At Broadband World Forum Berlin, make sure to visit Sckipio in Booth E101B for the latest advances in G.fast. Don't miss our CTO, Rami Verbin, at the Broadband Forum Access Summit. Sckipio, the leader as G.fast deploys around the world, continues to deliver performance.  http://bit.ly/Sckipio (ad)

5G Maps http://bit.ly/5Gmaps
5G is here, Verizon has installed "hundreds": of mmWave cells, per CEO Lowell McAdam. I am  trusting that China Mobile is also starting. Time to create a 5G mmWave map. 


Massive MIMO is expanding rapidly. Softbank in Japan and China Mobile are installing thousands of towers. I predict huge growth in M MIMO in 2018 & 2019. Korea Telecom is building rapidly a system along Highway 50, ready to astound the world at the Olympics in February. 

I don't include “tests” or "trials," of which there are hundreds. Too much is pr. Countries only go on these maps when I'm confident they are building and ready to serve customers. Updates and improvements very welcome: http://bit.ly/5Gmaps

Stories not here:
Why Verizon is rushing to 5G mmWave ** Qualcomm makes  great chips but Taiwan is right on unreasonable royalties. ** AT&T wants > 10 ms. 1 ms is likely far away. ** EU moving ahead on 25 year licenses as monopoly spectrum is becoming obsolete. Dumb. ** India’s fiber to 250,000  villages is growing. ** Totally wasteful $3B subsidy for AT&T LTE ** $20B fabs from TSMC and Samsung protect Moore’s Law to ~2025

*** Columbia CITI Nov 17 State of Telecom
Eli Noam and Bob Atkinson have ther very best in world telecom to the university for this annual event. It was unmissable for anyone who cared about policy. This year, it's going online, http://bit.ly/2zbfXdv (psa)

G.fast News
Some of the best in the industry will be at the Broadband Forum’s BASE in Berlin and Germany and BBWF in Berlin. See you there.


10 Gigabits 500 Meters Over Phone Cables?! http://bit.ly/2xHJCch
John Cioffi theorizes that 1 Terabit/s over 100m is possible. Several world-class engineers have confirmed the theory appears correct. The same higher-order waveguide modes could deliver 10 Gbps at 500 meters, which is exciting some of the most important companies in the industry. It could drastically reduce the cost of backhauling 5G small cells in the required millions of locations. 


Some are using the name Surface Wave over Copper (SWoC) instead of TDSL as the system moves closer to test. Building a test system and proving the real challenges can be met will be expensive. The frequencies involved are at 50 GHz and higher, 200 times higher than the new 212 MHz G.fast. http://bit.ly/2xHJCch

*** At Broadband World Forum Berlin, make sure to visit Sckipio in Booth E101B for the latest advances in G.fast. Don't miss our CTO, Rami Verbin, at the Broadband Forum Access Summit. Sckipio, the leader as G.fast deploys around the world, continues to deliver performance.  http://bit.ly/Sckipio (ad)

Who needs fiber? Backhaul By a Dozen Bonded DSLshttp://bit.ly/fiberno
12 bonded lines of 35b VDSL should be able to deliver 2 gig downstream ~400 meters. That's comparable to the most common G.fast backhaul, 2.4 gig GPON. Telcos are confident few will use the high speeds simultaneously so the high over-subscription is realistic. Upstream on the older DSLs is lower, so the upstream will probably be limited.


Kurt Raaflaub says Adtran has trial units at customers. As far as I know, this is the first public description of bonded 35b and I hadn't anticipated this possible use. Deutsche Telekom says 35b will be ready for deployment the second half of 2018. http://bit.ly/fiberno

*** Two remarkable Broadband Forum Access Summits will feature speakers including Tom  Starr of AT&T and Trevor Linney of BT. In Berlin at BBWF October 24 http://bit.ly/2hZHBWX In Las Vegas before the Calix Connection event October 29 http://bit.ly/2iHz7Dt (psa) See you there


Bonded 35b Tester From intec http://bit.ly/2ypGyVM
intec and Adtran have working parts for testing bonding. 35b uses double the spectrum for double the speed, 200+ megabits at 500 meters. It's not ready for the field yet, but test gear is now available from the German firm intec.  Look for them at the Broadband Forum Interop exhibit.


Jeff Waldhuter of Verizon told me not investing in testing was the biggest mistake they made in the early days of DSL. BBWF will also feature Lincoln Lavoie, who has led the UNH/Broadband Forum testing for years. You can now buy the testing software they use for your own work. UNH uses Telebyte hardware, who will speak at the show. http://bit.ly/2ypGyVM

*** Make sure to visit Adtran Booth E102 to see important new products. Please join us on Tues 10:05 Werner Heinrich DTA 10:35 Ryan McCowan NGPON2 11:20 Kurt Raaflaub Fiber to the DP without fiber http://bit.ly/fiberno 11:35 Robert Conger NGPON2; Wed 10:30 Ronan Kelly Keynote 14:00 Robert Conger Open Networking 14:20 Gary Bolton Platform Economy 16:50 Heinrich, Chris Thompson, Jeremy Harris (separate panels); Thurs 16:50 McCowen (ad) 

What Will Broadcom, Huawei, Metanoia & Nokia Bring To Berlin Broadband http://bit.ly/BBWFWHO
Companies time releases for BBWF, the biggest event of the year. Here are some possibilities for the companies that haven't provided me news yet.


Huawei will brief me at their Hangzhou event this week. For now, I know the 96 port external vectoring boxes are doing well in customer labs and probably ready. Two telcos were impressed.

(Huawei, Calix, and Adtran are very generous with the press, hosting regular events. All three do a good job trying to answer questions when they can. The result is they get far more coverage. I make a point of reaching out to those who tell me less, including writing this as a reminder.) 

Metanoia is the third G.fast chipmaker that joins the UNH interops. Nokia and Broadcom have yet to speak so I make a few guesses. http://bit.ly/BBWFWHO

*** The new Telebyte Guide to Testing Gfast follows the Broadband Forum IR-337 Gfast test specification, the same used by the University of New Hampshire (UNH-IOL) for Gfast certification testing. Free download http://bit.ly/telebyte (ad) It is the best technical guide to G.fast  I have seen. Grab it. Dave

Newsbreak: Nokia's Hidden New SX-16F DSLAM
Buried deep in an SDAN announcement is a mention of a Lightspan SX-16F. They call it  "The world's first 16-port reverse-powered G.fast micro-node which can be safely reverse-powered from the home." No more details available at press time.

*** Two remarkable Broadband Forum Access Summits will feature speakers including Tom  Starr of AT&T and Trevor Linney of BT. In Berlin at BBWF October 24 http://bit.ly/2hZHBWXIn Las Vegas before the Calix Connection event October 29 http://bit.ly/2iHz7Dt (psa) See you there

Broadband Forum BASE: Berlin Oct 24 Las Vegas October 29
Free BASE? Yes, no charge to hear 30 of the most informed people in the industry/  Trevor Linney of BT, who tells me they are pas 550,000 homes, a million are close, and the build to ten million is going well. David Titus and Tom Starr of AT&T, moving aggressively to buildings across the U.S.Vincent O'Bryne of Verizon, the leading proponent of NG-PON2. 

See you there. Look for the round fellow with a beard and point me to news I missed.

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Volume 18, #5 Oct 16, 2017

Oct 8

G.fast: Randall's Xmas: 144 Gigabits, 212 MHz, 96 Port, DTA http://bit.ly/150gig; More Gear Passes Interop at UNH http://bit.ly/unterop; More Gear Passes Interop at UNH http://bit.ly/unteropl Broadband Forum BASE Berlin Oct 24, Las Vegas Oct 29 http://bit.ly/2yTO7l9;

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This is not a test.

Lowell McAdam of Verizon has "100's of mmWave cell sites up and operating," he told us at Goldman Sachs September 13, 2017. This is the true dawn of 5G mmWave. I expect thousands more in 2018 and tens of thousands in 2019-20.

AT&T CEO Randall Stephenson promised America, �A ubiquitous gigabit in the next few years.� �Gig LTE� is puffery but even 100-300 megabits everywhere is historic.

India�s Sunil Mittal has turned on Massive MIMO at Bharti. Test speeds on Massive MIMO are almost a gigabit on 20 MHz (shared.) Ericsson�s Nishant Batra expects 100 MHz systems in 2018, with likely peak speeds well into the gigabits. Three other Indian giants are also going Massive

Imagine what the Internet will be like when tens of millions have a true gigabit mobile. Lowell believes, �It's on our doorstep.�

How will we bring this to (almost) everyone worldwide?

Say hello at Huawei Hongzhou next week, then Berlin Broadband Forum and BBWF, and the Forum�s Access Summit in Las Vegas. I�m a round fellow with a beard. G.fast News, below, features AT&T�s enthusiasm for the new 1.5 Gigabit G.fast chips and reverse power.

Verizon: "100's of mmWave Cells Installed" http://bit.ly/5Gisnow
September 13's announcement by Lowell McAdam will go down in history as the date of the first real 5G mmWave deployment. True speeds of a gigabit are possible, rather than the 100-300 megabits more common with "Gig LTE."

"We literally have hundreds of cell sites that we have up and operating and 8 markets moving to 11 markets. ... this platform is not two or three years out the way it was a year ago, it's on our doorstep and I think it's going to be huge."

Verizon needs 5G more than any other company on Earth. Its business model is based on being better and able to charge a premium price. AT&T and especially T-Mobile have caught up in important ways.  More http://bit.ly/5Gisnow

*** "I'm very proud of our new Amendment 3 chipset," says David Baum, CEO, Sckipio. "The performance is breathtaking, Compared to our previous chipset, It delivers four times the vectoring capability, twice the bonding speeds, and supports coordinated DTA for symmetric-like performance in both downstream and upstream." link (ad)

95% 4G LTE For Myanmar? Yes! http://bit.ly/2yLtebD
MYTEL, the new fourth company, has promised 4G to 95% within three years, investing well over $1B. They will launch their 4G-only network with 7K base stations across most of the country early in 2018.  The wireless explosion in Myanmar is almost miraculous. Six years ago, fewer than 1% had mobile phones. Today, Bloomberg estimates 90% are connected.

90% to 95% LTE coverage is rapidly becoming common across the developing world. Reliance Jio will cover 95% of India soon. The U.S. officially is over 99% LTE, although some think the figure is high.

Government owned networks are increasingly important. Viettel will own 49% of MYTEL. The remaining 51% will be split between MEC and local companies. MEC is controlled by the Myanmar military and Viettel by the Vietnamese government. Today, ~3/4ths of new wired broadband connections are on government-controlled networks, led by the Chinese. More, including a comment on the Myanmar military, http://bit.ly/2yLtebD

*** CloudCheck� Wi-Fi optimization platform enables visibility, control, and self-healing of residential Wi-Fi networks. Our new Mobile APP for Service Providers  provides a set of powerful and easy-to-use performance and install assist diagnostics tools for field techs. www.assia-inc.com (ad)

Historic Promise: AT&T Soon Will Offer "1 Gig Speeds Ubiquitously." Mostly True http://bit.ly/GigForAll
Randall Stephenson, AT&T CEO, told us at Goldman date "Over the next few years you get 1 gig speeds ubiquitously." AT&T's actual plan doesn't go that far but is remarkable. Some percentage of the country - ?5-15% - will not be covered. The "gig" will be 75 to 300 megabits down, most times and most places. That's not too shabby by any standard and a huge jump over the 5 meg to 25 meg speeds most common on U.S. LTE networks. Randall sees truth like a politician.

In wireless, I assume he mostly is planning "Gig LTE." In certain test conditions, that does deliver close to a gig. In the real world, the best analysis available indicates speeds will usually be a quarter gig or less. (Article coming.) The other three six big U.S. and Canadian carriers have similar plans. So do major carriers in Myanmar, India, and many other places.

On the wired side, AT&T is adding about 3M homes passed with GPON each year, which delivers a true gigabit down and 500+ meg up. Within about five years, 30-50% iof AT&T homes will be able to get 800+ meg downstream, close enough to a gig for most practical purposes. That will include 15M+ with fiber home.  More http://bit.ly/GigForAll

*** Two remarkable Broadband Forum Access Summits will feature speakers including Tom  Starr of AT&T and Trevor Linney of BT. In Berlin at BBWF October 24 http://bit.ly/2hZHBWX In Las Vegas before the Calix Connection event October 29 http://bit.ly/2iHz7Dt (psa) See you there

99.5% U.S. LTE? 98%? 96% http://bit.ly/2fYbfr9
Senator Schumer wants $40B to the many millions he thinks can't get broadband. Pai has $4B in the pipeline for areas without 4G. Totally political and likely to waste $billions. LTE is at 10-25 meg today and AT&T promises a "ubiquitous gigabit." Coverage isn't perfect but there aren't that many populated gaps.

The growth of LTE networks continues to astonish even those of us who meekly predicted near-ubiquity as far back as 2009, US Telecom's Pat Brogan estimates LTE coverage at 99.5% of the population, based on company data reported to the FCC. Both Verizon and AT&T claim 98% coverage and T-Mobile almost as high. They have different unserved areas, so 99.5% amongst them is plausible.

The real figure may be as low as 95-96% because coverage data is notoriously unreliable, with companies having incentives to inflate claims. I remember AT&T telling the FCC a while back the FCC didn;t need to test wireless availability because the companies could provide accurate maps. I checked AT&T's map of Manhattan and saw it claimed as 100% covered. I live here, and at the time was hearing numerous complaints of deadspots. http://bit.ly/2fYbfr9

*** Columbia CITI Nov 17 State of Telecom
Eli Noam and Bob Atkinson have ther very best in world telecom to the university for this annual event. It was unmissable for anyone who cared about policy. This year, it's going online, http://bit.ly/2zbfXdv (psa)

Ericsson: FDD Massive MIMO Ready, Not Just TDD http://bit.ly/2wAJueU
Time Division Duplexing has dominated Massive MIMO, including the thousands of cells at China Mobile and Softbank. Most telco spectrum is dedicated to Frequency Division Duplexing.

Massive MIMO inventor Tom Marzetta was skeptical about the performance of Massive MIMO using FDD (Frequency Division Duplex) rather than TDD (Time Division.) Massive MIMO requires regular and robust reporting from the cell phone, which they feared would be impractical with FDD.

Huawei, ZTE, and now Ericsson have done field trials they believe prove otherwise.  In trial with T-Mobile. Nishant Batra is confident many antenna Massive MIMO will add to performance in FDD frequencies as well as the TDD frequencies beginning to widely deploy.  I'm waiting for performance data, however.

Batra expects 3 carrier, 60 MHz TDD Massive MIMO in early 2018. Batra expects 100 MHz Massive MIMO by yearend 2018. http://bit.ly/2wAJueU

====================================
G.fast News - AT&T Sees 1.5 Gigabits
Eric Small of AT&T tells Sean Buckley �In generation 2, you get about 1.5 Gbps of throughput,� confirming what the vendors promise. �Not that you would use more than a gig in either direction, but it gives you the flexibility to use a gig in one direction and 500 Mbps in the other direction.�

He adds, ��The really interesting part of the second generation of Gfast is it allows for reverse powering, which means the power could come from the individual subscribers.� Fierce Telecom http://bit.ly/2yajjiW

Randall's Xmas: 144 Gigabits, 212 MHz, 96 Port, DTA From Sckipio http://bit.ly/150gig
Randall Stephenson at AT&T "needs 1 gig speeds."and promises "1 gig speeds ubiquitously."  http://bit.ly/GigForAll Sckipio is ready with 212 MHz Amendment 3 chips soon to sample to selected customers - including AT&T suppliers. Using 212 MHz of spectrum almost doubles the capacity of G.fast, reaching close to 2 gigabits between upstream and downstream in lab conditions.

96 ports at 1.5 gigabits is 144 gigabits. It should be achievable over the short loops typical in apartment buildings, although they will nearly actually all be a maximum. Adtran and Huawei have demo'd external boxes that can vector 48-96 ports, but Sckipio does not require the complexity of external vectoring. Instead, the first DSLAM supports 24 or 48 ports and can be daisy-chained with others on demand. This reduces the initial capex. cDTA allows switching between upstream and downstream for each line. Much more http://bit.ly/150gig

*** The new Telebyte Guide to Testing Gfast follows the Broadband Forum IR-337 Gfast test specification, the same used by the University of New Hampshire (UNH-IOL) for Gfast certification testing. Free download http://bit.ly/telebyte (ad) It is the best technical guide to G.fast  I have seen. Grab it. Dave

More Gear Passes Interop at UNH http://bit.ly/unterop
Lincoln Lavoie sees "cross chipset interoperability and performance at all levels including device software for management and control." Gear with chips from Broadcom, Metanoia, and Sckipio are working with each other at a good speed, usually 600 megabits or higher. EXFO and Viavi testers also passed.

He adds, "Gfast testing has already been more rigorous than any previous certification testing and we are testing individual features more deeply than we have on any previous technology."Interoperability" is considered to mean working reasonably together, not necessarily at maximum performance levels. http://bit.ly/unterop

*** At Broadband World Forum Berlin, make sure to visit Sckipio in Booth E101B for the latest advances in G.fast. Don't miss our CTO, Rami Verbin, at the Broadband Forum Access Summit. Sckipio, the leader as G.fast deploys around the world, continues to deliver performance.  http://bit.ly/Sckipio (ad)

Tom Starr, Trevor Linney Headline Berlin Oct 24 http://bit.ly/2g70Mx8
Linney is deploying G.fast past ten million British Telecom homes, with more connecting daily. Trevor, speaking for BT, has always been open about the practical results. Starr has led DSL standards and the Forum for 25 years, seen it all and done it all. AT&T is moving aggressively on G.fast from basements around the U.S., so he too will have lessons from the field.

The new Broadband Forum Access Summit is free. Register through the BBWF website at http://bit.ly/2fXnyYg. BBWF registration on site wasn't free last I looked so make sure to register in advance. The Forum is doing a sister event in Las Vegas on Sunday, October 29th. See you at both. Look for the round fellow with a beard. After Robin Mersh opens the event, Roland Montagne of iDATE, a respected analyst, will review deployments around the world. http://bit.ly/2g70Mx8 See you there

Broadband Forum BASE Las Vegas October 29 http://bit.ly/2yTO7l9
Reverse power. DTA. Profile 212. Now is the time to start taking advantage of the advanced features, as deployments are approaching one million homes passed. Registration is free at http://bit.ly/2iHz7Dt. See you there. Look for the round fellow with a beard. David Titus of AT&T will present details from their nationwide G.fast effort. http://bit.ly/2yTO7l9

*** Self-Healing Wi-Fi With ASSIA Real-Q
Beyond-the-Box visibility and control extends quality-of-experience (QoE) beyond the gateway to the end-user device for every device in the home. Based on ASSIA technology, proven across 80 million subscribers http://bit.ly/2dj7FJk (ad)

Scared By Cable, Bell Canada Chooses Fiber Over G.fast http://bit.ly/BellCa
Better TV software long kept Bell's DSL ahead of cable, but both Shaw and Rogers are now deploying Comcast's respected X1 software and will likely catch up. CEO Cope hinted to Wall Street he has little choice but to find the necessary capital.

G.fast was considered until very recently but Bell decided to accelerate their fiber home. They have done  most of Montreal and are working on Toronto. http://bit.ly/BellCa

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Volume 18, #4 Oct 8, 2017

August 27

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G.fast: AT&T: Millions of G.fast Lines Coming. Now Starting Buildings Outside of Territory http://bit.ly/ATTout; Here Comes 5 & 10 Gigabit G.mgfast; 424 and 848 MHz http://bit.ly/gmgfast ; Stanton of Adtran: G.fast Will Be Even Faster, But Not Yet http://bit.ly/gfaster ; Broadcom's 212 MHz Exists http://bit.ly/Broad212 Update: I'll have test data next issue; 1.6 Gig 212 MHz ZTE/NetCologne Demo http://bit.ly/ZTENC212; Broadcom Bummer: Blocked By Berlin Ban http://bit.ly/Broadbum; Tamboli: "2019 Will Be The Year of G.fast" http://bit.ly/GF2019; 2019 Deutsche Telekom G.fast Build is On http://bit.ly/DTgfast below


25,000 jobs are going at Ericsson, a tragedy. 70,000 cuts are in process at AT&T. Please don’t shoot me for the message. Blame the engineers who are improving gear faster than demand is growing. 

AT&T with 140,000 employees rather than 210,000 still will be a giant, even if profits are only $10B instead of $20B. Let all live long and prosper but it’s time to accept that telecom is a shrinking industry. China Telecom is still growing but even they are cutting capex by 8%. 

Low prices are great for consumers but brutal for the people involved. Rapidly improved technology often devastates workers. Most Thai farmers suffered when miracle rice doubled production and English textile workers suffered in the time of great satanic mills. 

-----------
A special policy issue will begin: Microsoft President Brad Smith was wrong claiming "Today 23.4 million Americans in rural areas still lack broadband internet access." The figures are from 2014. Probably half of them are now connected with LTE ...  Or should I say "Brad Smith lied?" Why does Germany have some of the slowest connections in Europe? How much of the $8B spent on U.S. rural subsidies was wasted? Has India found a way to connect 300M villagers? I’ll do my best to get close to the truth. 

-------------
The Samsung 8 and a half dozen other phones with the Qualcomm 835 support Gig LTE. It’s really “Quarter Gig,” with likely speeds 100-300 megabits. That’s still darn good. More than two dozen telcos will hype Gig LTE networks soon, including all three in Korea and all four in the U.S. 

Huawei is close to a prototype of a 2 Gig LTE phone, using 5 20 MHz bands compared to the 3 bands common today. 

--------------
AT&T's G.fast project is moving rapidly, although Verizon and Bell Canada are going with fiber home & wireless. A <well-informed source> tells me Germany is jumping in with G.fast in 2019. BT has already passed 500,000 homes, with a million due by the end of the year. Australia will do a million as well.

5G: Comcast, Liberty Most Serious About mmWave http://bit.ly/Cable5G
The gleam in Rob's eye says he wants to go ahead. "We have more fiber than anyone else," Rob Howald of Comcast claims, adding, "We and all the others in cable have deployed fiber deeply throughout our networks. That will give us a crucial advantage in 5G mmWave." Howald was very clear that no decision has been made to go forward, although he was obviously enthused about the technology. It's not news that cablecos are looking, but I was amazed at how advanced the preparations are. 

Balan Nair at Liberty Global, the largest international, a few months ago was deeply skeptical of building his own network. Now, he tells WSJ,  "We have fiber to many neighborhoods." Stu Woo points out, "The company has utility cabinets in neighborhoods already connected to power, which would allow the company -- or a mobile-carrier partner -- to quickly set up a 5G cellular site there."

A few days later, I saw  Howald hold up a chart of 5G coverage simulations. Their current fiber allows mmWave to more than half the area studied and they are driving fiber deeper. I've confirmed U.S. #2, Charter, is thinking similarly. The final decision is a couple of years away, but the engineers are enthusiastic about the challenge.http://bit.ly/Cable5G

*** At Broadband World Forum Berlin, make sure to visit Sckipio in Booth E101B for the latest advances in G.fast. Don't miss our CTO, Rami Verbin, at the Broadband Forum Access Summit. Sckipio, the leader as G.fast deploys around the world, continues to deliver performance.  http://bit.ly/Sckipio (ad)

Ericsson Cutting 25K Jobs http://bit.ly/Eric25K
Svenska Dagbladet report not denied. Every large telco vendor outside of China has been suffering for several years, although Ericsson maintained an illusion until recently. Ericsson and Nokia remain remarkable companies with world-class engineers, but it's a tough business. An Ericsson exec in India estimates the world market is going down currently at ~5%/year. 

Official details are limited. Ericsson claims the cuts "do not include R&D." Neither Ericsson nor Nokia can cut research. They face Huawei, with an R&D budget larger than the combined spending of Ericsson, Nokia, and whomever you place third. All three have great products, but Huawei's greater research budget is allowing them to outflank others with a wider product line. 

The service division is the largest target. It's probably been losing money for several years but that's been buried in the financials. The video division, built up by spending billions, is on the block. That includes what once was Microsoft's IPTV.http://bit.ly/Eric25K

*** The new Telebyte Guide to Testing Gfast follows the Broadband Forum IR-337 Gfast test specification, the same used by the University of New Hampshire (UNH-IOL) for Gfast certification testing. Free download http://bit.ly/telebyte (ad) It is the best technical guide to G.fast  I have seen. Grab it. Dave

Q2 U.S.: Every Telco Goes Down http://bit.ly/Q2USdown
Cable up to 64% of the market. For a decade, telcos held on to 45% of the market in the U.S. But AT&T and Verizon haven't upgraded almost half their lines, planning to go wireless only to 10's of millions of homes. (One network is cheaper than two.) The other U.S telcos have done even less, keeping dividends far higher than earnings and skimping on capex.

Customers are fleeing DSL networks that often are ten and fifteen years old. The U.S. has cable to 92%, with most offering 50 megs standard. Comcast's primary offering is 100 megabits and they just extended a gig of DOCSIS 3.1 to Boston and Philadelphia. Frontier lost 101,000 subs and Century 77,000. Verizon's once world-leading fiber network wasn't  to prevent a loss of 23,000 customers. The saddest story is AT&T. They have added 5M lines of fiber the last two years and spent $67B on DirecTV, seeking an expanded customer base. Despite that, they lost 9,000 customers http://bit.ly/Q2USdown

*** Self-Healing Wi-Fi With ASSIA Real-Q 
Beyond-the-Box visibility and control extends quality-of-experience (QoE) beyond the gateway to the end-user device for every device in the home. Based on ASSIA technology, proven across 80 million subscribers http://bit.ly/2dj7FJk (ad)

Cox 40% Gigified in 2017 (Correction) http://bit.ly/Cox40gig
All 6M Cox customers should have a gig available by the end of 2019.  Correction: I had reported that Cox had intended to offer a gig to all in 2016. I believed that was a commitment to a consumer priced DOCSIS 3.1 service. I was wrong. Cox did have a near-universal gigabit offering, but it was a business priced dedicated fiber, ($thousands, I believe.)  

Todd Smith of Cox writes, "DOCSIS 3.1 is live now with employees and we will begin deploying to customers in some markets later this year. 40 percent of the households we serve nationwide will have access to Gigabit speeds by the end of 2017." Cox Vice President Philip Nutsugah tells Mari Sibley, "The company plans to reach the rest of its customers (or at least 99% of them) with gigabit broadband by the end of 2019."

50M home giant Comcast expects, "DOCSIS 3.1 across the majority of its footprint by year-end." http://bit.ly/Cox40gig

16+ Megabit White Space Radios Reaching the Field http://bit.ly/WS16meg
I believe this is the first report anywhere of more than 10 megabits to customers.  Michael Davies and Richard Yu of 6Harmonics in Ottawa have sent me test data showing customers with a connection phy rate of 16-18 megabits, as well as convincing details from other deployments doing better than that. I thank Boston Consulting Group for pushing me to go beyond published reports and get these new results. The fuzzy photo below shows eight users connected to a base station using a single 6 MHz channel. They have deployments in California and North Carolina using two channels for nearly double the speed. High speed uplink is included.

They are ready with a three channel unit for even higher speeds. Yu has been working on multiple antenna systems (MIMO) for almost 20 years. I'm sure he can achieve even better throughput using more antennas. They seem to be so busy actually building the equipment they haven't had time to get the latest results up on their web site. CEO Yu, off the record, shared remarkable predictions for what they will offer within a year. http://bit.ly/WS16meg

*** Two remarkable Broadband Forum Access Summits will feature speakers including Tom  Starr of AT&T and Trevor Linney of BT. 
In Berlin at BBWF October 24 https://tmt.knect365.com/bbwf/agenda/1/grid
In Las Vegas before the Calix Connection event October 29 http://bit.ly/2iHz7Dt (psa) No charge

DragonWave Quenched, Alas http://bit.ly/DWGone
Huawei and Adtran are perhaps the only consistently profitable companies as overall sales continue to fall. DragonWave, a microwave pioneer, couldn't overcome industry problems. Ex-CEO Peter Allen is one of the go-to people in mobile backhaul. He built DragonWave up to 150M in sales in 2015, although profitability has long lagged. Two years later, three-quarters of those sales are gone. Creditors forced the company into receivership. Allen and the other directors resigned.

James Bagnell has a thoughtful report on what happened. Half of DragonWave's sales had come through a deal with Nokia. They disappeared when Nokia bought Alcatel and switched to Alcatel microwave gear.  Technical problems killed the company's sales in fast-growing India. Allen ran out of options for raising money for a comeback. The remarkable success of Wi-Fi backhaul, especially Ubiquiti, is reducing demand for traditional microwave gear. http://bit.ly/DWGone

Irrelevancy: If you want to reduce your risk of heart attacks, read Kathiresan and Topol on Genomics of Heart Disease http://wb.md/2fdDW6o. Two world-class researchers speaking informally. You won’t be surprised that exercise and weight loss are important, but there was a lot here new to me. Separately, the data from 521,000 people is persuasive in Coffee Drinking and Mortality in 10 European Countries: A Multinational Cohort Study http://bit.ly/2iIFoPE


G.fast News

AT&T's decision tells the world G.fast is ready to go. Deutsche Telecom intends to join them in 2019, according to a source I trust enough to print the story. Verizon, citing a history of VDSL interop problems, will go with a little bit more fiber and especially their $20B 5G mmWave project rather than G.fast. Bell Canada recently decided it would be all fiber home from here, as Shaw and Rogers cablecos become aggressive.

AT&T: Millions of G.fast Lines Coming. Now Starting Buildings Outside of Territory http://bit.ly/ATTout
T plans much bigger splash in territory starting soon as well. Large buildings and groups are being fought over hard by AT&T, Verizon, Comcast, and others. Verizon brought Fios fiber to this market almost a decade ago, as did local independents. Comcast is offering gigabit coax, which it is soon offering to all ~40M homes as well. 

AT&T jumped in more recently, led by Ed Balcerzak of their DirecTV division. DirecTV has millions of lines of coax bringing TV from rooftop antennas, a natural opportunity for broadband. Reporters see the new announcement as the kickoff of a major move with G.fast. In selected neighborhoods of ~65% of the U.S., AT&T will consider running fiber to the basement or WTTR - Wireless to the Rooftop - plus G.fast at 500 megabits.http://bit.ly/ATTout

*** The new Telebyte Guide to Testing Gfast follows the Broadband Forum IR-337 Gfast test specification, the same used by the University of New Hampshire (UNH-IOL) for Gfast certification testing. Free download http://bit.ly/telebyte (ad) It is the best technical guide to G.fast  I have seen. Grab it. Dave

Here Comes 5 & 10 Gigabit G.mgfast; 424 and 848 MHz http://bit.ly/gmgfast
"Multi-Gigabit Fast Access to Subscriber Terminals" is a new proposed ITU standard. 2020 is the target date for deployments. Jochen Maes of Alcatel/Nokia has been bringing his prototype 5 & 8 gigabit systems around the world since 2014, impressing telcos from Germany to Australia. He uses more frequencies, full duplex signalling, and other optimizations to get extraordinary performance. Adtran's simulations are that 4 gigabits can go ~75 meters using 424 MHz. 848 MHz can deliver 8 gigabits ~30 meters. (Phone wire, ideal conditions. Coax would have longer reach.)

Either would be great for the 55 families in my six story New York building. The simulations from Adtran and others in the standards groups have consistently predicted what the actual performance would be. http://bit.ly/gmgfast

*** At Broadband World Forum Berlin, make sure to visit Sckipio in Booth E101B for the latest advances in G.fast. Don't miss our CTO, Rami Verbin, at the Broadband Forum Access Summit. Sckipio, the leader as G.fast deploys around the world, continues to deliver performance.  http://bit.ly/Sckipio (ad)

Stanton of Adtran: G.fast Will Be Even Faster, But Not Yet http://bit.ly/gfaster
Customers want 212 MHz but development is still needed. Tom hopes for the first half of 2018, but notes, "The timetable for volume deployment is dependent on the chip suppliers." One European telco was told not to expect much until well into the year. I wouldn't be surprised if few customers are connected until late in the year. 

Adtran demonstrated two DSLAMs with Deutsche Telekom. One used Sckipio chips and delivered DTA. DTA allows higher effective speeds by allowing different upstream/downstream splits for each user. Since most systems are configured for a 5-1 or higher upstream/downstream split, the improved upstream can be 5X. The second DSLAM used Broadcom chips and 212 MHz of spectrum but without DTA. http://bit.ly/gfaster

*** ASSIA: Network software that ensures your customers get the performance they demand, assia-inc.com (ad)

Broadcom's 212 MHz Exists http://bit.ly/Broad212 Update: I'll have test data next issue
Deutsche Telekom and NetCologne have tested it. Adtran thinks they will be able to ship soon, but NetCologne doesn't expect much until next year. Broadcom's Greg Fischer confirms to me, "We entered production with 212 MHz G.Fast devices last quarter and also released production standards compliant iDTA.  We’re working with standards groups to assure same with cDTA." Sckipio is hard at work on 212 MHz and is delivering cDTA. It will be reassuring when the two demonstrate interop, as the lead at a very large telco discussed with me.http://bit.ly/Broad212

212 MHz should deliver as much as a gig up to about 200 meters.That covers most buildings. Almost all buildings would be covered by a second system deployed for the upper stories.

Broadcom has a "policy of not publishing data on our devices."  Vectoring noise cancellation is of course a challenge at the high speeds, so everyone will be waiting for demonstrations with a full binder. Australia and others are interested in remote power, also tbd. Broadcom has done innovative work with local error correction, and I'd like to see that shown as well.  

Traditional industry practice is to have a second source. Broadcom has just been locked out of the crucial German market in a patent dispute. They also lost a preliminary decision at the U.S. Trade Agency. They happen to be right on the substance; Tessera is demanding an unreasonable royalty. But that holds little weight in the absurd patent system. Stuff happens. A factory can catch fire. A huge customer can demand priority. A development program can fall behind. (35b was promised for 2016. DT now says it won't be ready until h2 2018.) Everyone wants to be protected.http://bit.ly/Broad212

1.6 Gig 212 MHz ZTE/NetCologne Demo http://bit.ly/ZTENC212
Next year, 260,000 lines. Cologne and Munich city nets have long been outclassing DT, especially with fiber deployment. CEO Timo von Lepel gets it, "One day, 100 Mbps will be the lowest data rate available." They have installed 25,000 kilometers of fiber, including to the basements of most substantial buildings. They run VDSL at 50-100 megabits to most apartments, but will rapidly replace that with G.fast.

They plan to use 212 MHz of bandwidth for speeds over 1 gigabit. At Anga Com, they showed download speed of 1.6 gig and upload of 200 megabits with equipment from ZTE. In the picture next to the speed test are Sun Jie of ZTE on the left, von Lepal and Horst Schmitz on the right. They have good reason to smile. Apparently, ZTE is using Broadcom G.fast chips. They expect the 212 MHz chips to be in limited supply until next year.

I'm waiting for Broadcom to provide details. In particular, it's not clear Broadcom (or anyone) is ready to do the heavy calculations for vectoring the higher speeds on more than 4 ports. Separately, Adtran and Deutsche Telekom announced results of their private testing of 212 MHz and cDTA. The cDTA is on Sckipio chips. 

*** Self-Healing Wi-Fi With ASSIA Real-Q 
Beyond-the-Box visibility and control extends quality-of-experience (QoE) beyond the gateway to the end-user device for every device in the home. Based on ASSIA technology, proven across 80 million subscribers http://bit.ly/2dj7FJk (ad)

Broadcom Bummer: Blocked By Berlin Ban http://bit.ly/Broadbum
The Tessera patent case pushes dozens of Broadcom chips out of the country. U.S. could be next.  The German court upheld a Tessera patent "for smoothing the planes of semiconductor chips." The court ruling resulted in this notice on the Broadcom website: *Certain versions of this device are not available for sale in Germany or shipment to or from Germany, and these versions should not be used in any product destined for the German market."

It affected dozens of Broadcom chips. Broadcom asserted in court "It will suffer immense damages."Tessera has also won a patent decision at the U.S. ITC which could block Broadcom in the U.S. after the commission reviews it. The ban includes versions of the BCM63138, which was probably used in the recent Deutsche Telekom G.fast 212 demonstration.More, including the absurdities of the patent system, http://bit.ly/Broadbum

2019 Deutsche Telekom G.fast Build is On http://bit.ly/DTgfast
Officially mum as they seek government money. In the 2/3rds of Germany that can get cable, DT has been falling behind for years. Mike Fries of Liberty has aggressive plans to expand the cable footprint; LGI's expansion in England and Germany is the largest new wireline network building in Europe. City networks in Munich and Cologne are also upgrading rapidly. 

DT is carefully not discussing their G.fast plans as they negotiate with the government for billions in subsidies for vectoring. The 20% of Germany without cable or DT upgrade plans has $4B in subsidies already allocated. DT wants more money, but doesn't want to build a robust network where they have a near-monopoly.http://bit.ly/DTgfast

*** Two remarkable Broadband Forum Access Summits will feature speakers including Tom  Starr of AT&T and Trevor Linney of BT. 
In Berlin at BBWF October 24 https://tmt.knect365.com/bbwf/agenda/1/grid
In Las Vegas before the Calix Connection event October 29 http://bit.ly/2iHz7Dt (psa) No charge

Tamboli: "2019 Will Be The Year of G.fast" http://bit.ly/GF2019
The technology available earlier but Dell'Oro analyst thinks telcos will move slowly.  Adtran, Broadcom, Huawei, Sckipio, & ZTE are demonstrating the next generation of G.fast gear, which presumably will be generally available in early 2018. AT&T, BT, Century, and others have plans to move aggressively, but Tamboli believes the large volume will be in 2019.

'Operators are holding off on massive deployments throughout their networks until they have more hands-on time with amendment 3 chipsets and systems, which will be available in early 2018," he believes. "Furthermore, many operators that wish to deploy G.fast into larger buildings via FTTB architectures are waiting for 32 or larger port units" http://bit.ly/GF2019

*** Virtual fiber by Sckipio. Extend your fiber with 100-300 meters of single-port G.fast. It can save expensive trenching for cell towers, small cells, basement fiber, commercial customers and others. A very thin management layer allows operators to keep their existing GPON management layer. Sckipio makes it effortless to add G.fast to any GPON network.  http://bit.ly/Fiberextend(ad)

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Volume 18, #3 July 21, 2017 

Latest issue

Jan 18

300,000 Indian Villages Fibered; 325,000 More To Come http://bit.ly/600KIndia
Verizon, NTT, AT&T: ?$200-$400 5G Costs Much Lower Than Expected http://bit.ly/Hans200400
Important: 5G Handles 10x More Data Than 4G http://bit.ly/5G10X4G
India Passes U.S. in Smartphones http://bit.ly/India40Msmartphones
AT&T Probably Will Not Have a 5G Mobile Phone in 2018 http://bit.ly/T5G2019
Pai, Speaking of Immigration, Put His Career on the Line http://bit.ly/Paicourage
35b: Ready or Not? Germans Say Not, Some Say Yes http://bit.ly/35bready
Qualcomm's Not To Be Believed Comeback in G.fast http://bit.ly/Ikanoslives

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Manoj Sinha announced that 300,000 Indian villages have been connected by fiber and BharatNet is on target for 325,000 more early in 2019. This is by far the largest rural broadband project in history. Bids are out for 500,000 Wi-Fi hotspots and 130.000 post offices will connect. The telcos are offered low prices to bring in LTE and fiber home. Programs are underway for > 100,000 local business to offer connectivity.  

Ajit Pai risked his career by challenging Trump's immigration policy. "My love and reverence for this country comes from living in the house of Raj and Radha Pai. My parents know a little something about the American Dream. They came to this country 46 years ago with literally no assets other than $10, a transistor radio, and a desire to achieve that dream." I never imagined America would plan to deport four million people. 
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