What's most important to me to explore as I go to five events, Berlin to Hangzhou? 

What technologies to connect the next four million?

Massive MIMO may be a key tool, but of course, anything that brings down the price is crucial. Interesting choices with Wi-Fi. 

How many will switch from landlines to wireless as wireless speeds pass 100 megabits?

Capacity is critical, today only 5 gigabytes to 25 gigabytes most places. Free in France, selling 100 gigabytes for $24 points to the future, but that's less than half today's average consumption. Telstra is seeing a modest trend and 5-15% is common. Will that accelerate with better wireless?

When 5G mmWave becomes important, will the technology and high costs of the millions of cells drive competition out of the market?

Some still wonder if one mmWave network is affordable and two will probably be a stretch. The four to seven usually needed for strong competition may be out of reach. Everything might change for the business. Policymakers may have to choose between strong network sharing/wholesale separation or strong regulation. 

Will autonomous cars require 1 ms latency or are they fine with 5-10 ms?

 It looks to be brutally expensive to deliver 1 ms driving intelligence to the edge. Most carriers, including Verizon and China Mobile, are using money-saving Centralized Ran (C-RAN) systems that control many cells. The router hops mean latency is 5-10 ms, not 1 ms. Virtual and augmented reality and telehealth are fine with ten milliseconds, experts tell me. Many think connected cars will not need 1 ms, especially with DSRC car to car connections. Gerhard Fettweis is an articulate advocate of the 1 ms tactile Internet.

How much capacity do we lose by having three or four networks rather than one efficient one?

One 100 MHz LTE network delivers far more capacity than five 20 MHz nets. Guard bands becoming unnecessary. When the customers of one company demand more, the bandwidth can come from unused spectrum that in four networks would have been locked to another carrier. This is especially important in countries with few landlines, including most of Africa, is they want a video quality Internet.

Will cablecos install remote Phys for the faster full duplex upstream?

Full duplex will allow a gigabit or more of upstream bandwidth by about 2020. They require a new network component, a "remote phy." Will the operators make the investment or will they simply upgrade 3.1?

What fiber speed is necessary?

Most fiber home is GPON, shared 2.4 gigabits down and 1.2 up. 10GPON is now available at a reasonable. Will customers need upgrades? Verizon believes 40 gigabit NGPON will be needed for backhauling 5G small cells but others think much cheaper 10 gigabit fiber is enough.  

What proportion of 5G will be millimeter wave and how much Massive MIMO?

Both can deliver speeds well into the gigabits. 


Hundreds of smaller questions are open but these are the big trends. 

Latest issue

Nov 6

G.fast News: Deutsche Wants a Gigabit, Finally Realizes 50 Meg Isn't Enough,1.6 Gig in Sckipio-Calix Test, Reverse Power 4 Port DSLAM for Australia, Australia Makes it Official: G.fast to Million Plus, 2 Bonded 212 Lines = 3 Gigabits

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Angelina Jolie, Ashley Judd and dozens of others have exposed Harvey Weinstein. Every industry, including ours, has monsters like that, rarely stopped.
    I choose instead to highlight some women who are driving us forward. Nicola Palmer and Sanyogita Sangupta lead Verizon’s 5G effort, the most successful in the world. They will spend $billions and have already put hundreds of cells in the field  
     Verizon jumped ahead when almost all others held back. Charla Rath persuaded the FCC to offer gigahertz of mmWave spectrum three years before the official WRC plan. They supported the NYU work to make a more accurate channel model.
     With allies, VZ created their own 5G standard in 2015 because they didn’t want to wait for 3GPP.  The system commercial in 2018 and will do mobile in 2019 if the handsets are ready.  
     “The race is on” between Verizon and AT&T to be first in each market.10%-20% of people almost everywhere hate their broadband provider and likely to switch to mmWave. The U.S. build is going fast because the two giants expect to find a large market replacing landlines outside of their existing region.
     If they are first in a land grab.

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