Careful: Shortage fears can lead to over-ordering and create a real shortage. Unless people panic, the problem is unlikely to be more than a few weeks delay in an order. Tan's comment in the financial call ("We're also working on resolving a few potential supply constraints in this particular segment." Details below) is likely circulating in the industry, and this article might. The instinctive action is to panic and double order, which is a pattern we see in chips on a regular basis.

Broadcom is the largest supplier of chips for both DSL & cable. The comment surprised me because the primary foundry, TSMC, is missing sales targets and generally has capacity. I haven't seen any huge increase in demand for broadband chips. Broadband subscriber growth in Europe and the United States is modest. Liberty Global is just getting started on increasing their cable coverage. Deutsche Telekom is two years behind schedule on it's big vector expansion. 

China added an unbelievable 50M fiber connections in 2015 and Hock says that trend is continuing.

 China Mobile in March added over two million new fiber subs as they overbuild Telecom and Unicom across the country.

Meanwhile, China is adding 20M 4G customers monthly, including China Telecom's effort to move everyone from 3G to 4G. China Mobile reached 400M 4G subs in May. 

Here are Hock's comments from the call:

We also saw strong demand for our broadband products from set-top box refreshes driven by the start of adoption of 4K video. Service providers continue to invest in broadband access infrastructure, including ongoing fiber-to-the-home build-outs in China, as well as DSL and cable modem build-out in Europe. As we look into the third quarter for wired segment, we expect the strong demand to sustain from the prior quarter, and project wired segment revenues to be up in the low single-digits sequentially. We're also working on resolving a few potential supply constraints in this particular segment.

Yes, there is supply constraint in certain areas, and that does extend out lead times somewhat, which we are working very hard to improve. Simply, because we believe the demand is real out there. And yes, it does extend to Q4, and we are starting to have visibility on bookings and backlog into Q4, as we sit here right now.

Broadcom is shipping chips to Alcatel and Huawei but deployments are just beginning.



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Nov 6 News: Deutsche Wants a Gigabit, Finally Realizes 50 Meg Isn't Enough,1.6 Gig in Sckipio-Calix Test, Reverse Power 4 Port DSLAM for Australia, Australia Makes it Official: to Million Plus, 2 Bonded 212 Lines = 3 Gigabits

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Angelina Jolie, Ashley Judd and dozens of others have exposed Harvey Weinstein. Every industry, including ours, has monsters like that, rarely stopped.
    I choose instead to highlight some women who are driving us forward. Nicola Palmer and Sanyogita Sangupta lead Verizon’s 5G effort, the most successful in the world. They will spend $billions and have already put hundreds of cells in the field  
     Verizon jumped ahead when almost all others held back. Charla Rath persuaded the FCC to offer gigahertz of mmWave spectrum three years before the official WRC plan. They supported the NYU work to make a more accurate channel model.
     With allies, VZ created their own 5G standard in 2015 because they didn’t want to wait for 3GPP.  The system commercial in 2018 and will do mobile in 2019 if the handsets are ready.  
     “The race is on” between Verizon and AT&T to be first in each market.10%-20% of people almost everywhere hate their broadband provider and likely to switch to mmWave. The U.S. build is going fast because the two giants expect to find a large market replacing landlines outside of their existing region.
     If they are first in a land grab.

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