Careful: Shortage fears can lead to over-ordering and create a real shortage. Unless people panic, the problem is unlikely to be more than a few weeks delay in an order. Tan's comment in the financial call ("We're also working on resolving a few potential supply constraints in this particular segment." Details below) is likely circulating in the industry, and this article might. The instinctive action is to panic and double order, which is a pattern we see in chips on a regular basis.

Broadcom is the largest supplier of chips for both DSL & cable. The comment surprised me because the primary foundry, TSMC, is missing sales targets and generally has capacity. I haven't seen any huge increase in demand for broadband chips. Broadband subscriber growth in Europe and the United States is modest. Liberty Global is just getting started on increasing their cable coverage. Deutsche Telekom is two years behind schedule on it's big vector expansion. 

China added an unbelievable 50M fiber connections in 2015 and Hock says that trend is continuing.

 China Mobile in March added over two million new fiber subs as they overbuild Telecom and Unicom across the country.

Meanwhile, China is adding 20M 4G customers monthly, including China Telecom's effort to move everyone from 3G to 4G. China Mobile reached 400M 4G subs in May. 

Here are Hock's comments from the call:

We also saw strong demand for our broadband products from set-top box refreshes driven by the start of adoption of 4K video. Service providers continue to invest in broadband access infrastructure, including ongoing fiber-to-the-home build-outs in China, as well as DSL and cable modem build-out in Europe. As we look into the third quarter for wired segment, we expect the strong demand to sustain from the prior quarter, and project wired segment revenues to be up in the low single-digits sequentially. We're also working on resolving a few potential supply constraints in this particular segment.

Yes, there is supply constraint in certain areas, and that does extend out lead times somewhat, which we are working very hard to improve. Simply, because we believe the demand is real out there. And yes, it does extend to Q4, and we are starting to have visibility on bookings and backlog into Q4, as we sit here right now.

Broadcom is shipping chips to Alcatel and Huawei but deployments are just beginning.




Often interesting


Mobile World Congress, Barcelona, Feb 27-March 2 100,000 mob Barcelona. Fares from New York are triple the usual price and hotels even higher - if you can find one less than a hour from the city. Everybody who is anybody goes so everybody who is anybody goes. Beyond the pomp and hot air are a slew of top technical people. Seek them out and make sure yo make appointments in advance with the people you want to see. Hint: You can still get rooms at the hostels in town. Next year, book way in advance to get one of the hotel rooms GSMA have negotiated with the city.

Digital Hollywood Media Summit, New York March 7-8. Victor Harwood always had an enormous number of top people in an almost overcrowded schedule. Senior folks from advertising, all media, marketing and more. VR and AR are heavily represented, from the talent to the salesmen. The price is about half what most shows charge and there are discounts for those with limited resources, including students.  A great way to learn what the most advanced in these fields are doing.

Brooklyn 5G Summit April 19-21st The most sophisticated people in wireless will be there, from the CTOs of NTT and Nokia to the most respected academics on the planet. Incredible S/N. If you can't come to Brooklyn, you must watch the stream. It takes two or three years for most people to catch up to what's learned here. Summit, Paris May 9-11 Trevor Linney of BT is deploying 10M lines. John Cioffi promises something astonishing. Everyone in the industry will be there except Broadcom, being their usual antisocial self. On the 9th, Hubert Mariotte of the standards committee has a deep technical tutorial and I have a session for everyone else.

TNO Ultrabroadband Den Haag June 12-15 Always a strong group.

I'm moving from to everything since July 2014 is here.


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