traffic chart Cisco NA fixedU.S. & Canada fixed 2016 +22%, 2020 +15%. The 2016 growth in U.S. & Canada mobile data looks to be 49%; the 2020 prediction is 38%. The VNI sees a major slowdown in both fixed and wireless growth around the world. Cisco estimates 2016 worldwide mobile growth to be 68%. They expect that to fall to 41% in 2020 when most people will have smartphones. Remember the world turns so no five-year forecast is certain.

Check the chart below and extremely rich data here and here. There's so much information I could spend a week in the analysis and still not catch all the inferences. Accuracy can't be perfect but they are clearly the best in the business.

The 100% mobile growth was an artifact, driven by people first getting smartphones. The average smartphone user is increasing data usage ~40%/year, per AT&T.

As each region nears saturation in smartphones, growth is likely to fall to 40%. Wireline traffic has been growing ~40% per year for more than a decade. I can't yet explain why growth has fallen in half. The shift to mobile isn't substantial enough to be the and Smartphone WiFi adds more wireless 

Wireline traffic has been growing ~40% per year for more than a decade. I can't yet explain why growth has fallen in half. The shift to mobile isn't substantial enough to be the primary cause. Smartphone WiFi adds demand on the fixed network. Netflix in the U.S. has been so successful they drove the increases the last few years. Video on demand is growing a little more slowly.  

Cisco provides the best public data. They've been consistently on trend. Arielle Sumits and team develop hundreds, maybe thousands, of datapoints. They make estimates country by country for OTT video, gaming (both growing fast,) file sharing (flat in absolute traffic and down by half as a % of traffic,) and many other factors. They regularly crosscheck their estimates with the better research houses and experts - even me once. Nearly every major carrier in the world uses Cisco routers so they have unique insight. 

Cisco web growth
 

 

Latest issue

Jan 18

300,000 Indian Villages Fibered; 325,000 More To Come http://bit.ly/600KIndia
Verizon, NTT, AT&T: ?$200-$400 5G Costs Much Lower Than Expected http://bit.ly/Hans200400
Important: 5G Handles 10x More Data Than 4G http://bit.ly/5G10X4G
India Passes U.S. in Smartphones http://bit.ly/India40Msmartphones
AT&T Probably Will Not Have a 5G Mobile Phone in 2018 http://bit.ly/T5G2019
Pai, Speaking of Immigration, Put His Career on the Line http://bit.ly/Paicourage
35b: Ready or Not? Germans Say Not, Some Say Yes http://bit.ly/35bready
Qualcomm's Not To Be Believed Comeback in G.fast http://bit.ly/Ikanoslives

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Manoj Sinha announced that 300,000 Indian villages have been connected by fiber and BharatNet is on target for 325,000 more early in 2019. This is by far the largest rural broadband project in history. Bids are out for 500,000 Wi-Fi hotspots and 130.000 post offices will connect. The telcos are offered low prices to bring in LTE and fiber home. Programs are underway for > 100,000 local business to offer connectivity.  

Ajit Pai risked his career by challenging Trump's immigration policy. "My love and reverence for this country comes from living in the house of Raj and Radha Pai. My parents know a little something about the American Dream. They came to this country 46 years ago with literally no assets other than $10, a transistor radio, and a desire to achieve that dream." I never imagined America would plan to deport four million people. 
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