traffic chart Cisco NA fixedU.S. & Canada fixed 2016 +22%, 2020 +15%. The 2016 growth in U.S. & Canada mobile data looks to be 49%; the 2020 prediction is 38%. The VNI sees a major slowdown in both fixed and wireless growth around the world. Cisco estimates 2016 worldwide mobile growth to be 68%. They expect that to fall to 41% in 2020 when most people will have smartphones. Remember the world turns so no five-year forecast is certain.

Check the chart below and extremely rich data here and here. There's so much information I could spend a week in the analysis and still not catch all the inferences. Accuracy can't be perfect but they are clearly the best in the business.

The 100% mobile growth was an artifact, driven by people first getting smartphones. The average smartphone user is increasing data usage ~40%/year, per AT&T.

As each region nears saturation in smartphones, growth is likely to fall to 40%. Wireline traffic has been growing ~40% per year for more than a decade. I can't yet explain why growth has fallen in half. The shift to mobile isn't substantial enough to be the and Smartphone WiFi adds more wireless 

Wireline traffic has been growing ~40% per year for more than a decade. I can't yet explain why growth has fallen in half. The shift to mobile isn't substantial enough to be the primary cause. Smartphone WiFi adds demand on the fixed network. Netflix in the U.S. has been so successful they drove the increases the last few years. Video on demand is growing a little more slowly.  

Cisco provides the best public data. They've been consistently on trend. Arielle Sumits and team develop hundreds, maybe thousands, of datapoints. They make estimates country by country for OTT video, gaming (both growing fast,) file sharing (flat in absolute traffic and down by half as a % of traffic,) and many other factors. They regularly crosscheck their estimates with the better research houses and experts - even me once. Nearly every major carrier in the world uses Cisco routers so they have unique insight. 

Cisco web growth



Often interesting


Mobile World Congress, Barcelona, Feb 27-March 2 100,000 mob Barcelona. Fares from New York are triple the usual price and hotels even higher - if you can find one less than a hour from the city. Everybody who is anybody goes so everybody who is anybody goes. Beyond the pomp and hot air are a slew of top technical people. Seek them out and make sure yo make appointments in advance with the people you want to see. Hint: You can still get rooms at the hostels in town. Next year, book way in advance to get one of the hotel rooms GSMA have negotiated with the city.

Digital Hollywood Media Summit, New York March 7-8. Victor Harwood always had an enormous number of top people in an almost overcrowded schedule. Senior folks from advertising, all media, marketing and more. VR and AR are heavily represented, from the talent to the salesmen. The price is about half what most shows charge and there are discounts for those with limited resources, including students.  A great way to learn what the most advanced in these fields are doing.

Brooklyn 5G Summit April 19-21st The most sophisticated people in wireless will be there, from the CTOs of NTT and Nokia to the most respected academics on the planet. Incredible S/N. If you can't come to Brooklyn, you must watch the stream. It takes two or three years for most people to catch up to what's learned here. Summit, Paris May 9-11 Trevor Linney of BT is deploying 10M lines. John Cioffi promises something astonishing. Everyone in the industry will be there except Broadcom, being their usual antisocial self. On the 9th, Hubert Mariotte of the standards committee has a deep technical tutorial and I have a session for everyone else.

TNO Ultrabroadband Den Haag June 12-15 Always a strong group.

I'm moving from to everything since July 2014 is here.


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