traffic chart Cisco NA fixedU.S. & Canada fixed 2016 +22%, 2020 +15%. The 2016 growth in U.S. & Canada mobile data looks to be 49%; the 2020 prediction is 38%. The VNI sees a major slowdown in both fixed and wireless growth around the world. Cisco estimates 2016 worldwide mobile growth to be 68%. They expect that to fall to 41% in 2020 when most people will have smartphones. Remember the world turns so no five-year forecast is certain.

Check the chart below and extremely rich data here and here. There's so much information I could spend a week in the analysis and still not catch all the inferences. Accuracy can't be perfect but they are clearly the best in the business.

The 100% mobile growth was an artifact, driven by people first getting smartphones. The average smartphone user is increasing data usage ~40%/year, per AT&T.

As each region nears saturation in smartphones, growth is likely to fall to 40%. Wireline traffic has been growing ~40% per year for more than a decade. I can't yet explain why growth has fallen in half. The shift to mobile isn't substantial enough to be the and Smartphone WiFi adds more wireless 

Wireline traffic has been growing ~40% per year for more than a decade. I can't yet explain why growth has fallen in half. The shift to mobile isn't substantial enough to be the primary cause. Smartphone WiFi adds demand on the fixed network. Netflix in the U.S. has been so successful they drove the increases the last few years. Video on demand is growing a little more slowly.  

Cisco provides the best public data. They've been consistently on trend. Arielle Sumits and team develop hundreds, maybe thousands, of datapoints. They make estimates country by country for OTT video, gaming (both growing fast,) file sharing (flat in absolute traffic and down by half as a % of traffic,) and many other factors. They regularly crosscheck their estimates with the better research houses and experts - even me once. Nearly every major carrier in the world uses Cisco routers so they have unique insight. 

Cisco web growth
 

 

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Angelina Jolie, Ashley Judd and dozens of others have exposed Harvey Weinstein. Every industry, including ours, has monsters like that, rarely stopped.
    I choose instead to highlight some women who are driving us forward. Nicola Palmer and Sanyogita Sangupta lead Verizon’s 5G effort, the most successful in the world. They will spend $billions and have already put hundreds of cells in the field  
     Verizon jumped ahead when almost all others held back. Charla Rath persuaded the FCC to offer gigahertz of mmWave spectrum three years before the official WRC plan. They supported the NYU work to make a more accurate channel model.
     With allies, VZ created their own 5G standard in 2015 because they didn’t want to wait for 3GPP.  The system commercial in 2018 and will do mobile in 2019 if the handsets are ready.  
     “The race is on” between Verizon and AT&T to be first in each market.10%-20% of people almost everywhere hate their broadband provider and likely to switch to mmWave. The U.S. build is going fast because the two giants expect to find a large market replacing landlines outside of their existing region.
     If they are first in a land grab.

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