chiraqDrahi's Altice also is financing Layer3. They are offering a 4K set top with up to three terabytes, apparently designed to connect wirelessly to a simple network interface device. That avoids needing to wire in the home, which Fran Shammo says is often the largest cost in a Fios connection. They are about to launch in a Chicago neighborhood and are also hiring installers in Alexandria, Virginia. 

Cable tech legend Dave Fellows and partner Jeff Binder have raised $100M, hoping that Comcast, Verizon, and AT&T have loads of unhappy customers who will switch. Paulson is a gambler who made $4B betting that triple-A rated mortgage bonds would default in 2008.

Like most famous hedge fund guys, he has his slumps as well; half the money in his fund is gone. Bloomberg says the banks demanded a personal guarantee on a loan to keep his funds afloat. George Soros also has invested in an over builder; he put $75M in Hyperoptic in England.

Google is confident they will take 30-40% of the market in Kansas and make money. A decent take rate is absolutely required to pay the high costs of network building. AT&T hasn't fibered Chicago and I believe hasn't even brought U-Verse to the entire city. They are obviously vulnerable. On the other hand, Comcast has promised gigabit DOCSIS 3.1 will begin in the next 90 days in Chicago. Chicago Tribune. 

Comcast appears to be sticking with a slow upstream of 30-50 megabits rather than using the upstream capabilities of 3.1. As far as I know, they are waiting for full-duplex upstream. It's years away. Fellows could jump ahead with the more robust cable upstream possible with today's equipment.  

Dozens of well-funded outfits have gone bust hoping to succeed as a third broadband provider in U.S. cities. Without effective unbundling rules, they nearly always failed to acquire enough customers to cover fixed costs. $Tens of billions - literally - were lost taking on the telcos and cablecos at the turn of the century. Many thought the big companies were slow, fat dinosaurs ready to be decimated.

Covad's market cap was $10B, a success that inspired dozens of similar CLECs. Nearly all went bust within a few years. It became impossible to finance a third entrant into a U.S. broadband market for more than a decade. "Telecom is a business of scale," Verizon CEO Ivan Seidenberg explained. "The new outfits don't have scale so they have no chance." 

The drought is over. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Latest issue

Jan 18

300,000 Indian Villages Fibered; 325,000 More To Come http://bit.ly/600KIndia
Verizon, NTT, AT&T: ?$200-$400 5G Costs Much Lower Than Expected http://bit.ly/Hans200400
Important: 5G Handles 10x More Data Than 4G http://bit.ly/5G10X4G
India Passes U.S. in Smartphones http://bit.ly/India40Msmartphones
AT&T Probably Will Not Have a 5G Mobile Phone in 2018 http://bit.ly/T5G2019
Pai, Speaking of Immigration, Put His Career on the Line http://bit.ly/Paicourage
35b: Ready or Not? Germans Say Not, Some Say Yes http://bit.ly/35bready
Qualcomm's Not To Be Believed Comeback in G.fast http://bit.ly/Ikanoslives

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Manoj Sinha announced that 300,000 Indian villages have been connected by fiber and BharatNet is on target for 325,000 more early in 2019. This is by far the largest rural broadband project in history. Bids are out for 500,000 Wi-Fi hotspots and 130.000 post offices will connect. The telcos are offered low prices to bring in LTE and fiber home. Programs are underway for > 100,000 local business to offer connectivity.  

Ajit Pai risked his career by challenging Trump's immigration policy. "My love and reverence for this country comes from living in the house of Raj and Radha Pai. My parents know a little something about the American Dream. They came to this country 46 years ago with literally no assets other than $10, a transistor radio, and a desire to achieve that dream." I never imagined America would plan to deport four million people. 
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