"32% would switch providers" for 5G

LG Uplus in Korea sees 5G as a once in a decade chance to change market share. Will the earliest to build 5G gain market share in the West? 

Almost certainly, I believe, many people will switch if a different carrier is far ahead in 5G. I cannot prove it, but the enthusiasm among consumers is obvious both East and West. 2M Koreans signed up in 4 months; more than 2M is almost certain in August 2019, the first month in China. Hans Vestberg of Verizon reports people are buying 5G phones even in areas where there is no 5G service.

Britain, Germany, Spain and Italy are probably under 2% coverage in August 2019, little more than pr. The phone prices in the US and Europe are often twice as high as in Asia.

Vivo is shipping a quality 5G phone in China for US$536.

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Americans will be ripped off for years on 5G phone prices?

 Josh Builta of IHS Markit could be right

"Within the next few years, prices will fall to between the $700 to $800 range."

I added the question mark because the Chinese price for good 5G phones is already down to US$536. China Mobile and others expect 2020 prices under $300. It would be very surprising if US prices did not come down further and faster than Builla predicts.

Perhaps the US carriers will find a way to keep prices high, I hope not. 

From Bonilta:

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HMD Nokia promises half-price 5G phones in 2020

The best minds of telecom are throwing away 5G forecasts

 A million Chinese bought 5G phones in Huawei's first 14 days on sale. China in August may add three or four million 5G users. In Korea, 2 million signed up in 4 months. Korea has 51 million people. Adjusted for population, 5G  would have 40 million in China or 12 million in the U.S. Germany, Britain, France & Italy have similar populations - and higher incomes - than Korea.

I wrote, Almost all 5G estimates for 2019-2020 need to be doubled. Strategy Analytics, the first mainstream analysis firm to jump in, tentatively raised its 2020 estimate to 80 million in China and 160 million worldwide. My guess is those will prove low. 5G phones are down to US$580 in China and falling to <$300. A reflection:

The best minds of telecom are going mad, starving for data, dragging through the Chinese press for an angry fix. Analysts are doing more than yacketayakking; two have told me their next reports will be very different. These are not teahead joyride neon blinking traffic light,

These are dreams of all who want a great Internet for everyone, no drugs needed. If I'm right, those left behind by a competitor moving faster will face waking nightmares. I hope friends who miss this don't become bleak of brain all drained of brilliance or disappeared into the volcanoes of Mexico leaving behind nothing. I glad no one will be burned alive in their innocent flannel suits on Madison Avenue.

With apologies to Allen Ginzburg, who saw the best minds of his generation destroyed by madness, (very rude link)

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Adtran will build PON in Egypt

Adtran is entering a joint manufacturing deal with the Arab Organization for Industrialization (AOI,) a large manufacturer controlled by the Egyptian military. AOI assembles tanks and jet aircraft. It produces AK-47's. The company is diversifying into solar energy and communications. A GPON box is much simpler than a supersonic jet; Egypt should have no problem with the manufacture.

Egypt has a strong industrial base that was first developed by Muhammad Ali at the beginning of the 19th century. It was stifled under British colonization until 1952. It exports widely and has respected universities. 

As Chinese wages have gone up, manufacturers have been moving to find lower labor costs. Vietnam has enjoyed a mini-boom. Egypt's nominal per capita income is about midway between Vietnam and China, low enough that wages will be competitive.

For the last two years, FTTH has increased by 20% or more each year.

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Almost all 5G estimates for 2019-2020 need to be doubled. (Quick note)

The remarkable take rate in Korea and China is invalidating almost all projections of 5G subscriptions. The 5G promotion has consumers wanting to buy, buy, buy. Huawei  Mate 20 5G is selling for only US$30 more than the 4G model. At that price, who would want to buy a 4G phone that could be obsolete in a year or two? In the first two weeks of sale, over a million Chinese bought Huawei's 5G phone.

One of the best analyst group on earth currently expects China to have 31 million subs in 2020. Two million+ Chinese are signing up in August 2019, a pace almost sure to increase. It's almost certain that China in 2020 will have more than that group's 73 million worldwide estimate. Korea is at 2 million after four months. KT is confident of 5 million Koreans taking 5G in 2019 from the three carriers. It estimates 30% of the country will switch to 5G by the end of 2020, about 15 million phones.  

The new data is forcing everyone to rethink. If the Americans and Europeans switched to 5G in 2020 at even a quarter of the Korean expectation, that would be over 40 million. 

Prices of 5G phones are plummetting in China. As I write, Oppo is selling a premium 5G phone for $580. Vivo is about to announce an even lower price. Nine phone makers are in active production and competition is becoming intense in Asia. It only costs about a dollar to airfreight a phone to Europe. The low prices are likely to spread and drive sales.

China Mobile and others say 5G phone prices will fall to under $300 in 2020.  

From $10: Jio expects 35M FTTH

15 million Indians have put in reservations for Jio fibre. Starting Sept 5, Jio will be connecting millions of people. With 300,000 kilometres of fibre in place and 500,000 "trial" customers, deployments will begin in 1,500 cities. Jio will expand rapidly from there.

Prices begin at ~US$10 for 100 Mbps. Other offerings, including video services and much more, will be priced up to $150. Ambani promises that next year he will include Bollywood films on the same day they open in theatres.

Reliance Jio in three years has connected 340M Indians to 4G, more Internet subscribers than the US has people. Neither I nor many other people believe that possible. I'm no longer a doubter.

He's invested over $30 billion to build the network and reached (modest) profitability. Reliance sold 20% of its refining business to Saudi Aramco for $15 billion. Towers and fibre assets are likely to be sold for more cash. The funds are there to manage $billions in initial losses.

Jio bought several cable companies to have people on the ground for installations and an initial customer base. It has a massive retail presence that will help sales.

The Internet is no longer a Western lake.

$536 5G Vivo iQOO Pro

Vivo took 600,000 reservations before the official August 22 launch at US$536. It's a 6.4' premium quality phone. Previously, the cheapest phone was $580, the iQOO 5G from OPPO. 

Vivo hasn't put a particle accelerator in the phone, but I couldn't resist the illustration. It has 3 cameras in the rear, a 4500 mAh battery, hybrid zoom, etc. OPPO may include AR glasses in a promotion. 

Except for one Xiaomi, all the phones in the west are over $1,000. Airfreighting a phone costs about a dollar. Any carrier that wants 5G customers should send an exec to China, talk to OPPO, Vivo, Xiaomi, and ZTE, and have the most affordable 5G offering in the market.