Fast Net.news

Broadband means you sleep less

Sleep by Mark Callow "Just one more level," and other Internet temptations cut your sleep. "Individuals with DSL access tend to sleep 25 minutes less than their counterparts without DSL Internet. They are significantly less likely to sleep between 7 and 9 hours... Furthermore, they are less likely to be satisfied with their sleep. These effects are mostly concentrated among younger adults."

I at first thought that claim implausible. Then I thought of all the nights I went to bed later to finish something on the computer, or when I just lost track of time surfing."High-speed Internet makes it very enticing to stay up later to play video games, surf the web and spend time online on social media."

Fiber to the Home near-explosive growth

Nyiragongos lava lake by Caitjeenk 230 20% growth is common. Telefónica Spain has passed twenty million premises - over 70% - and continues at two million a year. Telefónica Brazil is going from seven million in 2018 to ten million in 2020. China has 328 million connected and added 5M in the month of June. AT&T on July 26 announced 5M more in the next 12 months. Fiber is now a proven moneymaker, bringing new customers every quarter.

What's going on? We're doing the edits on a report for the clients of STL Partners. The working title is Fiber to the Home near-explosive growth. I use the strategies of 15 major companies to frame the analysis.

Credit Suisse believes that for an incumbent, “The cost of building fibre is less than the cost of not building fibre.”

Suri of Nokia: Component shortage real

begging cup 230 Your equipment could be delayed, especially if China goes ahead with a huge deployment of 5G, Suri was explaining to investors a sales shortfall caused by an inability to get parts. Suri said

"There is a tight supply for some standard components, such as various capacitors, diodes, and transistors that are used in our sector and many others, as well. The root cause of this situation is the fast growth of digital technologies in areas such as automotive as well as supplier consolidation delaying capacity investments.

Latin America broadband growth ~6% in 2017: TeleG

Pete Bell's TeleGeography data (below) show 10% growth at Argentina, Guatemala, Ecuador, Costa Rica, and El Salvador. Puerto Rico and Venezuela actually lost subscribers. Brazil added 2,083,000 to 28,670,000 (7.8% growth.) Telefónica Vivo is rushing to 10M homes with FTTH in order to win market share.

Uruguay has 79% household penetration. Government-owned Antel has covered 82% of the country with fiber home. Chile and Mexico are far behind at 61% and 59%. Brazil is at 43%. I don't have data, but I'd bet San Paulo and the Southern part of Brazil are closer to 60% and the North much lower. Brazil has extreme income and racial inequality with a Gini coefficient of 50. (The U.S. is the most unequal of developed countries, at 40; France is 32.)

AT&T fiber run rate going from 3M to 5M/year

John Donovan told investors they are now marketing fiber to 9M locations and he

expects that this time next year to reach 14M locations. ... We're doing very well in our fiber markets, including a 246,000 net increase in subs on our fiber network in the second quarter.

Customers are buying.

Broadband penetration in the fiber footprint continues to be significantly higher than in AT&T’s non-fiber footprint and is nearly 50% in locations marketed to for more than 30 months

5M fiber homes passed in one year would be the fastest ever achieved in the West, although China now has 328M homes directly connected to fiber.

China: 1.1B 4G, >400M BB, 328M fiber home, rapid growth

Chinese Dragon Walters Museum 230 In June, China Mobile added 4.6M landlines, reaching 135M. China Telecom added 1.3M to come to 140M + 24M in the areas covered by parent company CTC. China Unicom added .3M to 70M. Add independent Dr. Peng and the relatively modest cable totals and the country total is well over 400M, about 40% of the world's 1,000,000,000 connections.

Mobile connections topped 1.4B. Most are 4G but several hundred million have not yet upgraded. China Telecom was the June leader at 5.5M added, China Unicom's newly found aggressiveness has created a price war, but revenues continue to grow.

Nokia, Ericsson, and Samsung ban could cripple U.S. 5G (Satire)

Rembrandt Harmensz. van Rijn 079 Donald Trump tweeted, "All three are massively involved in upgrading networks in Syria, Iran & Cuba, our enemies. We must ban them from the U.S." Trump discovered that Ericsson is working with ETECSA on Campo Proyecto in Cuba. Ericsson & Nokia both have large, active teams in Syria and Iran. Samsung supplies almost half the cell phones in Iran. Most Nokia wireless gear is made in China in a joint venture 50% owned by the Chinese government

With this move, all five companies with 5G networks cannot sell in the U.S.

"Ericsson bragged about a $B sale to China Mobile just a few days after we banned them from the U.S. Just like Germany's gas deal with Russia, this means they are under control. 5G bragging rights are important, but not as important as U.S. power around the world."

Adtran expects G.fast boost from AT&T & Australia but Century still isn't buidling

Tom Stanton expects G.fast sales to nbn Australia and AT&T for incumbent area use. At least one and possibly two large cablecos are buying 10 gig PON gear and he expects NG-PON2 revenue before the end of the year. But Century still isn't spending and Deutsche Telekom is cutting back.

Things are so tight they've cut back on R & D, dangerous while their largest international competitor, Huawei, is increasing R&D rapidly. The quarterly loss was less than in Q1 but over $10M before an income tax refund. Adtran is a respected company struggling in a tough market. Adtran and Calix made an early move to SDN/NFV that is starting to pay off.

The income statement is below.

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