Are 20% of Comcast Gigabit Homes Actually Not Gigabit?

Tyler Cooper of BroadbandNow checked claims of gigabit service from the FCC. He founded that the carriers did not actually sell "gigabit" to a quarter of the claimed homes. Only 56% of addresses listed as "gigabit" could be served at over 900 Mbps.  I reviewed the findings with him. For certainty, more than 75 addresses need to be tested but his methods were sensible. 

Joe Biden wants to spend $20B to bring broadband to unserved rural areas and others in DC are talking $50-80 billion. Given that the recent FCC auction promises to bring 100 Mbps to about 98% of the country, that's a mistake - unless all the data we have being used is mistaken.

95% of the kids without connections could have one if the money is there. Comcast and Chicago are connecting all the kids for ~$10/month.  Charter, T-Mobile, Cox, Verizon, and AT&T have similar programs. This is a "just do it."

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5.5G Comes After 5G. 6G is a decade away

Wang Tao of Huawei believes major improvements in 5G are needed as quickly as possible and far ahead of 6G fever dreams. He proposes

• UCBC, to focus on the construction of uplink capabilities, which will be important for industrial IoT. The uplink proposed in the 5G standard is not sufficient for many indoor uses.
• RTBC, focusing on the construction of broadband real-time interaction capabilities
• HCS scenarios, focusing on the construction of capabilities that integrate communication and perception. It would coordinate vehicle and road information

ITU 6G is fascinating to engineers and pr people. Sub-millisecond latency seems exciting until you think of the obstacles to wide deployment and unproven use cases.

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5 US Net Giants $7,000,000,000,000 Trillion

Decent people lead Google, Facebook, and the other giants. They are very smart and hard-working. They are no more greedy than anyone else. However, corporate leaders in America put shareholders first. That does not always serve users and the public interest.

Seven trillion dollars of corporate power is unprecedented in my lifetime. These five companies are worth over three times as much as the top twenty-eight telcos across the world (below.) I believe each is now spending over $100 million/year for influence.

Consider a thought experiment. Would the world be better off if the giants were broken into smaller parts, say worth up to $500 billion? 

Capitalism works best with strong competition. If Instagram, Whatsapp, and Facebook how to contend with each other, they would be more innovative. One might even offer a service that didn't abuse your privacy.

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Verizon's 25-50 ms "Mobile Edge" runs at 4G latency

Nicki Palmer, Verizon's highly respected Chief Network Officer, spoke of 10 ms latency for 5G Edge. "We have architecture up and running in New York City and we are seeing sub-10-millisecond latency right there as we continue to test," she said in May 2019. Sue Marek reports, "The latency obtained through the company's edge computing test in Houston were 15 ms or half of what's available on Verizon's LTE network." (Verizon 4G often is 30 ms or less, although 4G on many nets should be considered 35-50 ms.)

"Thierry Sender, director of edge computing can guarantee customers latency of between 25 to 50 milliseconds," Sue Marek reports. WTF?

Sender's comment implies has abandoned low latency Edge. It still is adding servers, looking to rent them out to Amazon and (they hope) gaming companies. 

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Carmakers' discredited spectrum claim

Harold Feld destroyed the carmakers' claim they need 75 MHz of dedicated spectrum for safety. Ajit Pai and a unanimous FCC decided to return 45 MHz to public and unlicensed use. The remaining 30 MHz is more than enough for safety needs. The battle now is whether the automakers get more spectrum to send you commercials and possibly to track you. Congressman Pete DeFazio wants to confuse and delay things. He has now asked the GAO to find a way to bring back the discredited safety arguments. (below)

Harold is the most important telecom consumer advocate and did an excellent job explaining this clearly. He writes at Techdirt

For the Auto Industry, It’s About the Money -- Not Saving Lives

Lobbyists have pressed the “safety band” argument consistently, while acting offended whenever someone points out that 30 MHz leaves them plenty of spectrum for actual highway safety uses if the industry just drops the commercial aspect. Of course, the auto industry says it’s “not about the money.” The industry claims it just expects even more awesome safety features at some indefinite time in the future and therefore requires all 75 MHz of spectrum for when that magical day arrives. In the meantime, though, the auto industry argues it might as well use the extra 45 MHz of spectrum for collecting people’s personal driving information and serving them personal ads -- solely in the name of efficiency, of course. 

For the last four years, the auto industry has refused a non-commercial condition on a band that the industry itself claims is strictly for safety.

Politicians lie, often stupidly. That won't change when Trump leaves town. 

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Realme 5G again on sale for US$150

For the Double Eleven sale in China, the Realme V3 5G is selling for 999 yuan, about US$150. It's a decent phone with a 6.5-inch screen, three rear cameras, and a 5,000 mAh battery. The Mediatek Dimensity 720 is similar to the popular Qualcomm 765 in Antutu testing. It should be fine for most practical purposes, although the main camera has only 13 megapixels.

I have raised my 2020 yearend estimate to 230-250 million 5G subs because of the low phone prices and strong sales of the iPhone 5G. Apple is actually selling well in China despite the politics. As those prices move West, I predict 2021 5G sales will explode.

Xiaomi, Vivo, Oppo, and Huawei all have models under US$270 at regular prices. Samsung, Sony, OnePlus, and Meizu are avoiding the price war, staying mostly at $500-600 and above. Apple is over $750. 

Glenn Wellbrock of Verizon: 5 Questions

• Previously at this event, you saw a place for microwave backhaul as part of 5G. If I remember correctly, you said Verizon was ~10% and that might increase to 20%. After 2 years of 5G in the field, does that seem on target?
• Your colleague Lee Hicks tells me the cost per bit has been falling about 40% per year. Is there anything in the technology likely to change that in the next few years? 
• CTIA figures show bandwidth demand on mobile is now growing ~30% per year. Some Europeans are lower than that, some Asians higher. Looking ahead 3-5 years, does 30% traffic growth seem about right or should telcos plan for lower or higher? (While part of planning is to be ready for unexpected growth. I'm asking about your surprise-free assumption.)
• Mike Dano reports Open RAN will not be (widely adopted) by the traditional networks until it can support Massive MIMO. Is he on target?
• What will be the backhaul and fronthaul problems to solve for midband Massive MIMO?

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Telefonica Brazil passes AT&T, Verizon with 16M FTTH homes passed

Enrique Blanco, Telefonica CTO, is telecom's strongest believer in fiber. His Brazilian operation has now passed 16 million homes, almost a quarter of the country. The goal is 24 million in a few years. Only 3 million have purchased so far, but fiber generally catches 40% of broadband after a few years. 

From the financial call:

FTTH revenues were up 56% year-over-year, while IPTV was up 26.9% resulting in a combined growth of 47.3%. Analyst Carlos Sequeira noted, "The FTTH operation is growing super fast. Net additions are impressive. So everything is going super well." He went on to ask if Vivo could even speed up the construction.

This is part of a worldwide trend of adding fiber. In the US, Frontier is building again and talks of 3 million as it exits bankruptcy. BT is passing ~2M homes/year, up from almost nothing three years ago. Orange has just announced it's "accelerating fiber." It has 22 million connections available, most shared with Free. That's over 60% of the country. 

Two years ago, almost no one expected this kind of growth. I didn't.