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India unreal: Jio goes for 50M FTTH in 1100 cities, already 215M 4G and 96+% covered

Jio worlds largest data network230

Audited financials* report a profit with prices of $2-10/month. Rio sells with feature phones from $30 and smartphones from $60. Ambani offers LTE to 96% of India, confirmed independently by OpenSignal. heading to 99%. No government subsidy, ET predicts prices will start at $8.

If India can do this with a $7K per capita income, so can Poland $29K per capita, Malaysia $28K, Argentina $20K, Mexico $19K, Dominican Republic $17K, Egypt $13K, Indonesia $12K, and many, perhaps most, of the 110 countries with higher incomes than India. Myanmar, one of the world's poorest, is over 90% covered and will soon be 95% LTE. Less than that is a government failure.

The primary secret is the incredibly low costs of today's wireless networks. Verizon CEO Lowell McAdam says his current cost per bit is 90% less than just a couple of years ago.

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Fiberhome acquires wireless pioneer Datang

Sui Yangdi Tang Emperor 643 CEDatang, like the Tang dynasty that inspired the name, exits with remarkable achievements. The Tang Dynasty introduced woodblock printing and many of the first manuscripts. The Tang poets remain admired after a millennium. Datang has played a crucial role in wireless since developing the TD-SCDMA standard before 2007*. That was extended to 4G TD-LTE, which is the basis in turn for much of mid-band 5G. In fact, when the technology was developed for wireless in the 3.5 GHz band, it was called TD-LTE.

Datang was so important in wireless standards that only three weeks ago Qualcomm signed a major agreement with them (below.) They have thousands of patents; it is probably impossible to build a 5G network without using Datang patents. (Huawei and ZTE also have primary patents on advanced wireless.)

Datang is still known for test and measurement equipment, but at $3B sales/year was too small to compete.

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AT&T, T-Mobile, & Huawei allies hire Trumpians

Ted Olsen

AT&T just hired Margaret Peterlin — who was an aide for Trump's Secretary of State Rex Tillerson — as senior vice president, global external and public affairs. T-Mobile hired Trump's tech guy, Jeff Eisenach, for analysis backing the Sprint deal. Jeff is a skilled economist who can always make an argument that reads well in a policy brief.* I don't know the actual numbers here, but the best-placed lawyers and DC advocates bill out at well over $1,000/hour. Peterlin's job presumably pays well into the $millions.

That's typical D.C. behavior, where we have the best Congress money can buy. 

Former U.S. Solicitor-General Ted Olsen declined the role of defending Donald Trump in the Mueller investigation, despite his strong ties to the Republican Party. But as a Washington lawyer-for-hire, Olsen is happily opposing the FCC de facto ban of Huawei through rules on universal service purchases.

Like most lobbyist filings, it's mostly hyperbole.

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20M FTTH in Spain, 14M+ soon in Brazil, 20M+ in France, 3M/yr at AT&T, 300M connected in China

FTTP Europe 2017 5M iDate 230I didn't believe it until I double-checked the figures. Telefonica Spain added 500,000 homes passed by fibre to the home in Q1 2018 to reach 19.7M. Three months later, they are almost certainly over 20M, over 75% of Spain. They are now making more money per customer (EBITDA,) seeing less churn, and reducing operating expenses on the new network. The financial results were so favorable the Brazilian subsidiary, VIVO, is also adding 7M. VIVO's total will be 14M by 2020. 

Across Europe, iDate and the Fibre to the Home Council calculate FTTB/FTTH rose by 20% in 2017. British Telecom and Deutsche have fone very little do far but have planned over 20M lines starting in 2019. Below, the iDate/FTTH charts for all of Europe. The trend is obvious.

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Dave in South China Morning Post: China is already a leader in telecom

Fifteen years ago, a brilliant French switch engineer claimed, "The Chinese can never do what we do." I looked at him and replied, "B_______. Hundreds of Asians worked in Bell Labs. Do you think their cousins back home are not as smart as they are?" His company is long gone. Two of the five leading telecom manufacturers are Chinese, one Korean, one Swedish, and one Finnish. No company in France - or the United States - can deliver a major mobile network. 

An SCMP article covered the long march still ahead to match Intel processors. That's not true in telecom. Qualcomm still probably makes the best mobile chips, but Huawei's HiSilicon is very close. Know-nothings in D.C. thought ZTE was dependent on America and made bad policy.

90% of the ZTE components could be immediately sourced today in Asia. The remaining few, mostly RF and FPGA, are actively being researched in China and could be quickly developed.

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YesandNo

Yes Donald Trump ending the boycott of ZTE. It would have failed in 6-12 months as ZTE & China prove they don't need U.S. SMIC has purchased a $120B EUV chipmaking machine and will offer the most advanced fabrication services.

Yes India's Bharatnet has connected 350,000 villages with fiber and expects the remaining 350,000 within a year. Next step: Adding Wi-Fi, often by local businessmen

No, No, No Giving ?Verizon $B's in 3.5 GHz spectrum for relatively nothing. That's the end result of the rules proposed by Intelsat and SES covering what had been satellite spectrum.

No Claiming Net Neutrality caused a major drop in investment. The data falls apart when closely examined by anyone objective.

No EU recommending 20-year spectrum terms without any evidence it will increase investment. Almost all spectrum should be shared.

Yes Xavier Niel's Salt is offering 10 gigabits to 1.3M Swiss homes for 50 Swiss francs 

Jedi Xavier Returns After Orange Empire Strikes Back

John Wayne comes 230Xavi is riding to the rescue after Free lost 19,000 broadband subscribers in Q1, an almost inconceivable result after 16 years of success. He's bringing back some of the original team, including legendary engineer Rani Assaf. They have work to do: opening Italy & Ireland, transitioning from 4G to ?, and dealing with invigorated competitors. Even Bouygues seems to be coming back. 

Orange/France Telecom now has a better network and is promoting aggressively. FT offers fiber to 9.6M homes, Free only to 6.8M.  FT has 97% 4G coverage, Free only 88%. The stock price has seriously fallen while Xavi invested in 400 startups, built the school 42, and created Station F, the world's largest startup incubator.

One of the first things Niel intends to do is to rev up the fiber build. He expects to add 2M servable homes by the end of this year and enable 20M - 80% of the country - by 2022. The business strategy will be to sell hard in the fiber areas, looking to add 500,000 or more each year.

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ZTE Freedom Will Cost $5-10B. Cheap!

Hock tan china MIIT 230Update: May 13: Trump blinked. He tweeted, "Too many jobs in China lost,. Commerce Department has been instructed to get it done!" Previous: The maximum cost to keep the company going for two years would be about $10B if they didn't sell a single product. With some fast engineering work and smart management, survival would cost less than $5B. 

The money will be found and the company almost certainly saved. 80% to 90% of ZTE's requirements can be immediately sourced in Asia. DC now needs to cut the U.S. losses. Apple stock lost $60B when Trump declared war. China's response will include developing national alternatives for any product that is dependent on a U.S. supplier. They also will go for the international market.

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More Articles ...

  1. T-Mobile Watch: Chances Falling As Errors Reported, Missing Time Machine
  2. Goldman Sachs Puts $750M Into Brit Fiber
  3. Kuoppamaki of T-Mobile: NR Will Yield A (Modest) Performance Improvement
  4. Danger, Will Robinson! The Best on Wall Street Often Get It wrong
  5. Trillion Dollars ($1,000,000,000,000) Says China Must Never Be Dependant On Foreign Core Technologies
  6. CEO: AT&T's Existential Crisis. I Disagree.
  7. Xavi's Breakthrough 10 Gig For $53 in Switzerland. Believe It!
  8. Active Internet Connections: About 1,500,000,000; Users About Twice As Many
  9. 10 Gig: $100 in Japan, Smart City Adelaide
  10. Colorado's Jeff Storey Up, Louisiana's Glen Post Out
  11. U.S. Q4: Cable + 717K, Telco -193K; U.S. 2017 Cable +2,720K Telco -626K
  12. Gigabit Broadband Downstream Cable Available to > 50M U.S. Homes
  13. Unprecedented: China Unicom Down`~1M in December
  14. "Don't Buy From Huawei," The Senator Said
  15. 300,000 Indian Villages Fibered; 325,000 More Soon Come
  16. Breaking: Goldman $5B Writeoff, Adtran Warning Point to Telco Capex Cut & Highly Distorted Earnings to Come
  17. "A Brain Drain & An Empty Shell," If Broadcom Buys Qualcomm
  18. Iliad Free Already Bringing Italian Down Prices
  19. U,S. Q3: Cable +540K, Telcos -155K. Telcos clobbered across > 1/2 the country
  20. G.fast Reality Check
  21. Wireless Network Design: The Troika
  22. To Find Growth, Adtran Goes Wireless, ASSIA Goes GPON
  23. 272M Fiber Connections in China: The Most Remarkable Achievement in My 20 Years of reporting
  24. 50G & 100G Ethernet for Backhaul
  25. Hundreds of Thousands Go Wireless Only in Tokyo
  26. Algeria Fibering 1M. Fiber Ain't Dead
  27. Big Questions for 2018-2020
  28. Who needs fiber? Backhaul By a Dozen Bonded DSLs
  29. Is Google Go-Long the Future of Fiber Home?
  30. Answers Needed
  31. Say Hello at Hangzhou Oct 18/19, Berlin Oct 23-26, Las Vegas 29-31, London Nov 15-16
  32. Historic Promise: AT&T Soon Will Offer "1 Gig Speeds Ubiquitously." Mostly True
  33. All Rome To Be Fibered By Government Electric Company
  34. Ericsson Cutting 25K Jobs
  35. Q2 U.S.: Every Telco Goes Down
  36. Cox 40% Gigified in 2017 (Correction)
  37. Upstream Gigabit Cable as Cisco Demos Full Duplex
  38. Cisco: Drastic Fall in Internet Traffic Growth, Going Down to 15% in U.S.
  39. Q1 U.S. Cable adds Million, Telcos Fall Further
  40. AT&T Brings Open Source Drive to DC June 27

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