Shortage"As economies pick up, so does demand. The effect on us is slightly longer lead time. Nothing is materially different now than six months ago." Reporting on shortages is tricky. When rumors begin about shortages, people over order for protection. That just makes things worse, and news stories on the subject can scare people into building more inventory. Often, that's overdone and the product market crashes a few quarters later. 

Adtran made a Q3 profit of US$8 million after three quarters of disappointing sales and net losses. Sales were up 10% although still down from a year ago. It is shipping Version 2/Amendment 3 to Australia's nbn. AT&T, whose Tom Starr was a driving force behind, is only "sluggish." T has upped their fiber home to 5 million passed this year while slowing down on 5G mmWave.

Adtran and Huawei are cutting the price of 10G to little more than GPON to win sales. See GPON is Dead! Long live 10G. From Poland to Hong Kong, the low price of 10G is inspiring the switch.

Swisscom tells me they are getting similar units from Huawei and deploying across the country. speeds on short loops are going up from 500 megabits to over a gigabit.

That may not be enough for the Swiss; Xavier Niel's Salt is deploying 10 gigabit fiber at a similar cost to Swisscom's Adtran is looking for 10G sales around the world.

It's been a tough year for Adtran as CenturyLink, its largest customer, decided to starve the former Qwest and Century local phone companies. Not one of the last 25 press releases from Century described any upgrades in the local networks, about 2/3rds of Century's revenue. Instead, the company is opening a security operations center in Singapore and expanding cloud offerings in Latin America. The local customers in 37 states - 15% to 20% of the U.S. population - have one of the worst broadband networks in the developed world.

Many Century customers cannot get even 40 megabits while 75% to 80% of the U.S. can get a gigabit from cable. Century desperately needs to upgrade its networks. They lost 283,000 broadband subscriptions in 2017 and 89,000 more in Q2 2018. The states and the FCC should come in strongly but U.S. regulators generally will not take on the big telcos. It is collecting ?billions in CAF subsidies but is probably breaking the rules of that program by using the money to replace previously planned capital spending. 

Adtran in August said they were close to shipping NG-PON2. Verizon's Lee Hicks told the Adtran event NG-PON2 is now its standard backhaul. They also are quietly doing very well in several cablecos, where Hossam Salib has landed orders from some very large carriers. 

ADTRAN Delivers First 2nd-Gen Gfast Solutions as Worldwide Deployments Ramp

HUNTSVILLE, Ala.--(October 10, 2018)ADTRAN®, Inc., (NASDAQ:ADTN), the leading provider of next-generation open networking solutions, has expanded its market-leading Software-Defined Access (SD-Access) portfolio with 2nd generation Gfast products, allowing for the transparent extension of FTTH service capabilities. Delivering the industry’s first commercially available gigabit-capable Gfast solution shatters the market’s economic barriers to delivering the immersive applications and bandwidth-driven services customers need to fully participate in a global hyper-connected marketplace.

“Second generation Gfast solutions can allow operators, municipalities and regulatory agencies another delivery path to meeting the goal of delivering Gigabit speeds to consumers,” IHS Markit Principal Analyst, Service Provider Technology, John Kendall said. “The current Gfast market is set for strong growth as leading service providers are ramping deployments as a natural extension of their fiber investment strategies and Gigabit service rollout plans.”

Deployments of ADTRAN Gfast solutions are already underway in Tier 1 carrier networks in Asia, Australia, North America and Europe as network operators look to complement Fiber-to-the-Home deployments to deliver Gigabit services network wide. Together with further regional engagements with either active or pending deployments, these contribute to ADTRAN’s leadership in the rapidly growing SD-Access market.

ADTRAN is the first to deliver Gfast solutions that conform with Amendment 3 of the ITU-T standard, which doubles the usable spectrum from previously 106 Mhz to 212 MHz. With Amendment 3, Gfast is now capable of providing an aggregated bandwidth of 2 Gbps, delivering fiber-like speeds for Multi-Dwelling Units (MDUs) and other applications which require leveraging the existing phone or cable television wiring infrastructure. The increased capacity also helps operators with additional deployment flexibility, as for the first time Gfast-based services can be delivered to locations where these need to coexist with existing VDSL2 services while still maintaining the ability to deliver symmetric Gigabit speeds.

Interest in Gfast is largely driven by network operators leveraging this technology within their FTTdp and FTTB deployment footprint. ADTRAN’s broad portfolio of Gfast solutions, ranging from single-port to high port count DPUs with a wide variety of powering options, including business case streamlining reverse powering, provides a complete toolset of rapidly deployable fiber extension solutions enabling operators to speed up the rollout of Gigabit services with minimal resident disruption and at a highly economical cost per subscriber.

Additionally, ADTRAN’s award-winning Gigabit to the Basement (GTTB) deployment model opens up the possibility to offer Gigabit services without the need for even deploying a distribution fiber from the feeding cabinet to the Gfast DPU. As with all of ADTRAN’s SD-Access portfolio, its Gfast DPUs are open network elements that seamlessly integrate into any modern software-defined architecture, as proven by various successful integration projects, allowing a vastly simplified path to service on-boarding especially within a multi-vendor environment.

“In today’s global economy, having access to Gigabit services has become playing stakes for any carrier that wants to compete for residential services,” ADTRAN Director of Portfolio Management, Broadband Solutions, Werner Heinrich said. “By delivering the industry’s most complete SD-Access solution set, including fully Gigabit-capable Gfast solutions, ADTRAN is providing our customers with the opportunity to expand the reach of their fiber broadband services and open the way into the Gigabit Society for many more of their subscribers.”


ADTRAN, Inc. Reports Earnings for the Third Quarter 2018 and Declares Quarterly Cash Dividend



ADTRAN, Inc. (ADTN) reported results for the third quarter 2018. For the quarter, sales were $140.3 million compared to $185.1 million for the third quarter of 2017. Net income was $7.6 million compared to $15.9 million for the third quarter of 2017. Earnings per share, assuming dilution, were $0.16 compared to $0.33 for the third quarter of 2017. Non-GAAP earnings per share were $0.21 compared to $0.37 for the third quarter of 2017. GAAP earnings per share include the expense of stock-based compensation, acquisition related amortizations and other expenses, and restructuring expenses. The reconciliation between GAAP earnings per share, diluted, and non-GAAP earnings per share, diluted, is in the table provided.

ADTRAN Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Tom Stanton stated, “Total revenue for the quarter grew 10% sequentially, including the effect of a late start to our shipments to the Asia-Pacific region. Notwithstanding the shipment impact, our third quarter results showed strong improvements in gross margins and operating expenses. On a regional basis, sales contributions followed typical seasonal patterns with growth in the Americas, expected seasonal declines in Europe and growth in Asia-Pacific, driven by new customer activity. Looking forward, we are very encouraged by the continued momentum in ultra-broadband shipments to both carriers and MSOs globally as service providers continue to evolve their networks to meet changing customer expectations.”