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Jeff Pulver is Bringing Back VON. Zoom Jan 25-26

von 3Bill Smith told me what it took to recover from Hurricane Katrina as CTO of BellSouth. In 2004, John Chapman explained how cable would get to a gigabit. (Almost no one believed him.) Jef Raskin explained why he created the Macintosh and what he did wrong. He did sessions in Second Life, now being refashioned as "The Metaverse."

The most original minds in telecom argued long into the night about how to create the future. Years before the rest of us, Jeff realized the giants were going to take over, innovation would slow, and conferences about telecom futures had less of a place. Since then, he invested early in Twitter and created the 140 Character Conference. He was a pioneer of NFTs but now sees them as overhyped. 

When we programmed Pulver conferences, the mandate was clear: find the best and most interesting speakers, whether or not they would buy a  sponsorship. We all know how the many pay-to-play events are dominated by boring sales pitches.   

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Rosenworcel's Failed Emergency Broadband Benefit

rosenworcel 230
Less than 20% of the $3.2 billion in the EBB program is being spent on reaching the unconnected. Nobody's perfect, I learned from Joe E. Brown, so I am comfortable with the strong endorsement I gave Rosenworcel for permanent FCC Chair.  But it's crucial to face what went wrong before more money is wasted.

The program was sold with dramatic stories of families who couldn't afford a connection at home. From Joe Biden  

"No parent should have to sit in a parking lot at a fast-food restaurant again just so their child can use the Internet to do their homework. That’s over." 

In practice, extremely few unconnected kids were helped by the program. Instead, most of the money went to ISPs for customers that already had service, often at 2 or even 5 times what was formerly charged. 

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"Everyone" Buying 5G As Samsung 5G Falls to $129

samsung 129 230px5G phones have taken over. >70% of phones sold in China, Korea, Australia, Canada, and the United States are now 5G. I believe Japan, England, and most of Western Europe are similar but I don't have firm data. 

5G still does nothing important, of course, but the cost difference between 4G & 5G is very small. The immensely popular Apple 13 doesn't even have a 4G model. 

Since December 2019, I've been reporting that prices of $150-220 were driving demand for 5G phones. Boost Mobile, owned by Dish, on November 7 2021 dropped the price of the Samsung A32 5G to $129. 

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10 Gig Up & Down to 15 Million! at AT&T - Newsbreak

 ATT XGS 1010 230Ed Walter beamed with pride as he told us AT&T's next 15 million lines of fiber will offer 10 gigabits upstream and down. This is the first large 10 Gbps symmetric build in the world. 

"The additional cost for 10 Gbps up was modest. Customers love speed on fiber; 10 gig will give us a marketing edge." His presentation added

XGS PON for AT&T Fiber Broadband Services evolution is happening NOW • Greater capacity & symmetrical speeds • Gold standard for Low latency applications

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Update Dec 2021 Goldman: 8 million Verizon 5G fixed mmWave by 2023

malady verizon capacity 230December 2021: Verizon is just now starting to sell many fixed wireless connections. 8 million in 2023 is unlikely because it did not build the planned 30 million homes of mmWave. Latest data is that Verizon cell site radius is < 200 meters rather than the 600 meters it thought was practical in 2018. A $10-20 billion mistake. As mid-band reaches half the country *late 2022 or 2023,) Verizon could take millions of customers from cable if it priced at $30-45. Mid-band will have so much excess capacity that would be a highly profitable offering. The marginal cost of a customer added to the network even with a high cap will be < $10/month.

My guess is VZ won;t price that low although T-Mobile is thinking of it.

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December 2021 update: Verizon 4G 1.45 gigabits! Who needs 5G?

Dont Believe the Hype 230December 2021 Since 2017, every telecom reporter on the planet has written about "Gigabit LTE," a theoretical peak that is more often 150-350 Mbps down. 5G NR adds very little. The gain in theory could be 15-50%, but in practice 5G in frequencies below 2100 MHz is often slower than 4G. The apparent improvements, from 4G 50-150 Mbps download to 5G 100-450 Mbps are because of more spectrum (mid-band) and more MIMO antennas. Both are 4G tech shipping since 2017.

The high-performing new radios are mid-band Massive MIMO that work almost as well in 4G as in 5G.

 

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2021 Update Verizon, NTT, AT&T: ?$200-$400 5G Costs Much Lower Than Expected (2)

Vestberg and wife marathonUpdate December 2021: Vestberg was dead wrong about a $200-400/cost per home passed for mmWave. The word from Verizon in 2017 was to expect 600 meter reach for mmWave. Testing by Earl Lum found Verizon built to a 200 meter radius. The economics of mmWave deteriorated because the capability was massively overestimated.

On the other hand, mid-band Massive MIMO is proving incredibly productive and surprisingly cheap. It produces more bandwidth than carriers can sell at most locations. Net result: worldwide capex roughly flat 2018-2024, serious over-capacity.   

Hans Vestberg of Verizon is passing 30M homes without raising capex.

NTT DOCOMO's very respected CTO Seizo Inoe in 2016 called high costs of 5G "a myth" in presentations at the Brooklyn 5G Summit and an IEEE conference in Kuala Lampur. He pointed out that LTE was cheaper than 3G and that much of the 5G would use existing towers and backhaul.

Vestberg, former Ericsson CEO now running Verizon's network, sees mmWave costing $200-400/home passed as they deploy to a quarter of the U.S. (Obviously, some other areas will be more expensive.) He just told a CITI investor conference 5G is

"Massively, massively cheaper than having a fiber all the way to the home to have sort of a beam in the air going to the home."

Verizon has previously said their costs to pass a home with fiber were $700 in 2007 and went down from there, presumably to $400-600. AT&T has confirmed similar as they deploy 15M lines of fiber home. I'm inferring that "massively, massively cheaper" would be $200-$400.

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Calix' Mighty Marketwise Magic

Michael resultsMichael Weening, to my amazement, has delivered for Calix's modestly sized customers a marketing program with the sophistication I would expect from a giant company. In some ways, the Calix suite is even better than Verizon's.

Michael introduced Calix's Revenue Edge in a perfectly timed presentation that reminded me of Steve Jobs. The only thing missing was the sweater. For every key point, he brought on stage a client who was able to confirm the results.

Calix's program emphasizes extraordinary service for each customer, including a new Wi-Fi 6e router with effective cloud management.

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More Articles ...

  1. I Ordered Dish/Boost Free 5G Phone: 35 Gigs $25/month 12 months
  2. Jio/Radisys, Bharti/Tata, Nokia, NEC, Samsung look to O-RAN dominance
  3. Frozen Wireless: 14% 2020 Traffic Growth
  4. Telefonica Germany/Tele Columbus huge cable sharing deal
  5. "Take a number and wait." US at limits in building broadband
  6. Data confirms "digital redlining" of rural black south
  7. 5G Base stations $13,000 in China
  8. Goldman Sachs: Fiber = "Material value creation"
  9. Half of Europe fibered
  10. Ericsson, Nokia oppose TRIPS waiver on Covid
  11. Ericsson paying Nokia $96M in bribery damages
  12. 100+ Mbps Mbps cable ** upstream ** ready to take off
  13. Adtran: "Highest product bookings for any quarter in our history"
  14. LoRaWAN gains traction for in-building & campus
  15. India giant Jio, slower but profitable growth Q1
  16. Verizon CTO: We have massive overcapacity
  17. China Mobile 5G era: Profits Q1 up 2.3%, prices flat, traffic +37%
  18. $1 average worldwide cost/gig; 35% traffic growth 2020; US 4X world
  19. 4G NB-IoT reading meters in India
  20. $152 Realme 5G Q2i
  21. Robin Mersh passes Broadband Forum on
  22. 5G tested peaks: 707/79 Mid-band, 3294/210 mmWave
  23. 5G China Price: $201-$262, sometimes $154
  24. G.Network raises £1bn to fibre London
  25. $300 5G OnePlus Nord N10 T-Mobile. The 5G explosion moves west.
  26. Farooq Khan and Jerry Pi's 2011! paper on 5G
  27. Broadcom's Wi-Fi 6E at 6 GHz is here
  28. Are 20% of Comcast Gigabit Homes Actually Not Gigabit?
  29. 5.5G Comes After 5G. 6G is a decade away
  30. 5 US Net Giants $7,000,000,000,000 Trillion
  31. Verizon's 25-50 ms "Mobile Edge" runs at 4G latency
  32. Carmakers' discredited spectrum claim
  33. Realme 5G again on sale for US$150
  34. Glenn Wellbrock of Verizon: 5 Questions
  35. Telefonica Brazil passes AT&T, Verizon with 16M FTTH homes passed
  36. In six weeks, wireless could reach 30%-60% of students without a connection
  37. AT&T killing DSL (Dave in USA Today)
  38. ASSIA Equipe Work-From-Home Manager
  39. Realme 5G down to $145
  40. Qualcomm 4 kilometer mmWave not close to Ted's 11 kilometers in 2016

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