Tom Cloonan of Arris is confident of remarkable speeds. (Video and transcript below). At CableLabs' 2015 summer event he predicted DOCSIS would reach 15 gig (shared) in a few years and 50-80 gig a decade later. 15 gigabits would require using 1.7 GHz and higher speeds would require going to 6GHz and more. Jeff Baumgartner at Multichannel calls this "supersonic DOCSIS."
Compensation to be negotiated. SASAC, the State Holding Company, will have 50% - 1 share in the combined Nokia China and Alcatel Shanghai Bell. Yuan Xin will continue as chairman and party secretary. No word yet on whether Luis Martinez-Amago will continue as second in command. Nokia, the European survivor, will have 50% +1 but is unlikely ever to challenge Chinese control. Chinese sales are absolutely crucial to Alcatel and Nokia. They had no real negotiating room and had to take whatever the Chinese offered.
As part of the EU/China deal for a telecom equipment cartel, Alcatel Shanghai Bell and Nokia each have a share of the Chinese market, crucial sales for the struggling companies. In an interview with Jessica Lipsky of EE Times, Alcatel CTO Marcus Weldon notes, "China allows foreign vendors to claim a maximum 11% of the wireless market; Alcatel-Lucent and Nokia each have an 11% share." Whether China will allow the merged company 22% or only 11% is a major factor in the future success of the company, but nothing is decided.
1.6 gigabytes cellular, 8.1 gigabytes Wi-Fi in USA. Hating overage charges, Americans are shifting away from cellular. Strategy Analytics is finding the percent of traffic over Wi-Fi is increasing. That's pretty simple for most people - just don't watch TV when you aren't in Wi-Fi reach.
SA's data is based on a panel of 3,000 phones, enough for statistical significance if randomly chosen. Given that's it all opt-in, it's likely skewed toward more self-aware users. I'd guess a random panel would be slightly less Wi-Fi centric, perhaps ?75% rather than 83%.
Jean-Paul Sartre died in 1980. There were fewer than a thousand cellphones in the world. The World Wide Web was a decade away. He's the most prominent existentialist philosopher. There's no obvious connection between his work and this analysis of the impact of Wi-Fi on telephone companies.
As I write in August, 2015, it's not clear whether the panic telcos are demonstrating about Wi-Fi is justified. Verizon is running scared about the risk they face from Wi-Fi offload. That's the most powerful signal that WiFi is a real threat. On the other hand, Cisco and AT&T continue to project 40%-50% growth in data demand for four or five years at least. I haven't seen any convincing data to the contrary.
Unlike Canada, Holland and England, telcos falling behind. Overall growth continues at about 2%/year. Some of those without broadband are signing on. There's a surprisingly modest loss to "wireless only" broadband despite speeds of 5-15 megabits and going up. AT&T lost 136,000 broadband customers while Time Warner Cable added 189,000. Both AT&T and Verizon showed large gains where they've upgraded (U-Verse, FiOS) and large losses where they haven't.
Saul Hansell in NY Times got this one right: AT&T & Verizon and Verizon put much of their network into "harvest mode," back in 2004-5 with the intent of milking those lines and/or selling them.
WiFi is an existential threat to telco revenue so they are fighting back in many ways. "5G-for-all presents the opportunity to kill free WiFi and instead charge users for every data packet they send or receive," Colin Johnson reports at EE Times. The implications Johnson heard at an Intel event inspired his title, 5G the Free WiFi Killer. The speakers were Verizon VP Bin Shin, SK Telecom CTO Alex Choi and Ericsson VP Paul McNamara.
Johnson is on target that eviscerating WiFi is a crucial goal of the giant telcos. I'm not as confident as the author that high-powered, all-encompassing home gateways mean the end of free WiFi The danger is currently unproven but we certainly need to avert the possibility. The more immediate danger is the telcos want to "Enclose" half or more of the WiFi spectrum. An important Wall Street Journal article by Thomas Gryta and Ryan Knutson has made this a top of mind issue in Washington. They conclude with Harold Feld's comment that Wi-Fi is too important to give carriers the ability to slowly strangle it.
50-70% of wireless traffic now goes over WiFi, a figure that will increase as faster WiFi routers become common and more home gateways are configured to share unused bandwidth. The telcos are working in closed industry fora, making a mockery of the U.S. and EU commitment to an open Internet and the "multi-stakeholder."
Realworld likely speeds of 50-150 megabits 90+% of the time. Two 20 MHz bands will deliver speeds like this. You rarely will need that kind of speed but higher capacity wireless means more bandwidth for all. The 2 gigabyte and 5 gigabyte caps need to disappear and they will where there's enough competition. 55% of Singapore is covered now and they'll be close to 100% next year.
Update 3 September: Vodafone in Spain announced a similar 300 megabit (shared) deployment rapidly going countrywide. By December, Voda will have 4G to 100% of Spanish towns of 25,000 or higher.
Rwanda will soon be supporting 750 megabits, as they build a network that can aggregate 5 carriers. The Africans look to leapfrog the west as they have plenty of spectrum available. There are very, very few phone wires in sub-Saharan Africa so the service will be wireless and they intend to make it efficient.
"It's great for us," Christoph von Schierstädt of Lantiq tells me. I compared the company at merger with the hopes of a few years ago. http://bit.ly/lantiqbye Christoph is looking forward and writes,
"Honestly, I don't really agree that the Lantiq / Intel story isn't a good one. In fact it's a great proof of everything we did to bring the company back on track - We made the company faster, lean and nimble. Dan Artusi installed four key principles which we are acting under since then: customers, speed, simplify, participation. He furthermore demanded and successfully installed the 'see a problem, fix it' mentality; means we all care for the success of the company and remove roadblocks faster.