Verizon, AT&T working to catch Shenzen's 45K 5G radios

The city of Shenzen will likely have more (robust) 5G radios deployed than either Verizon or AT&T for the next year. Robert Clarke reports Shenzen will have 15,000 5G radios in the next few months and 45,000 by August. One Chinese city has more 5G than the entire United States.

Neither Verizon nor AT&T have provided any real information about coverage but their figures likely will be lower. There is no technical reason for delay. The technology now is working for over 10 million people. The limiting factor is the carriers' investment budgets. In the West, investment has been flat to down.

Verizon & AT&T each have 60-70,000 towers and have virtually stopped adding macrocells. Well under half will be upgraded to mid-band or mmWave 5G. Verizon is adding some small cells, but probably not enough to match Shenzen figure. 

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1/3rd of Koreans buying 5G phones

"Samsung’s Galaxy S10 5G dominated sale in the second quarter, followed by another phone available in 5G, LG V50 ThinQ with a share of 7 per cent, according to the data compiled by industry tracker Counterpoint Research." These latest results confirm South Korea's position as the first leader in 5G and show what's possible.

2 million Koreans have 5G phones. KT and SK are confident 10% of Koreans - about 5 million - will have 5G by the end of 2019. They estimate 30% of Koreans will go 5G in 2020. That would require well over half of the Korean phone sales in 2020 will be 5G.

If China by the end of 2020 matches Korea's 2019 figure of 2019, that would be 140 million. The US would be ~33 million. Almost all estimates except mine are lower than that. 

Wrong, Elliott! AT&T has one of the best managements in world telecom

AT&T's Randall Stephenson, John Stankey, John Donovan, Ralph de la Vega and Bill Smith were probably the most effective telecom management of the last decade. Paul Singer and Jesse Cohn of Elliott Management - or whomever they brought in - could never match the record of the current management they want to displace. The contentions in the letter (below) are often misleading and in some cases simply errors. The best pros, like Craig Moffett, don't see a potential for big gains in T.

For example, Singer writes

"AT&T today is in prime position to be the early market leader in 5G given its premier spectrum positioning, ... We believe AT&T will be able to quickly move forward while its main competitors remain either spectrum-disadvantaged or distracted as they integrate major transactions. However, while AT&T is well positioned, success in 5G will require meaningful investment and improved execution; anything less and AT&T risks missing this opportunity and falling behind again."

That's nonsense for two reasons. First, Verizon and Sprint have better 5G spectrum positions than AT&T. AT&T and Verizon have similar low band spectrum. Verizon has 800 MHz of 28 GHz mmWave spectrum, more and better than AT&T's mmWave. Sprint's 160 MHz at 2.6 GHz is providing exceptional reach. It currently has covered over 11% of the U.S., more than any one else in the U.S. and could rapidly expand - with or without the merger.

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China Mobile: 5G will cover most of China from existing cells

5G rarely will need new cells, especially in mid-band 2.6 GHz bands. Very respected Huang Yuhang of China Mobile Research told the Huawei Chengdu event that CM will not need "to build lots of new sites for 5G or interfering with its existing LTE network. Its spectrum in the 2.6GHz band is sufficient to support both networks in a shared architecture."

Sprint in the US, which also has 160 MHz of 2.6 GHz spectrum, is getting excellent coverage of 5G despite dedicating half the band to 4G enhancement. Massive MIMO in mid-band is performing so well that 5G needs few more cells than 4G requires.   

When 5G was defined as millimetre wave, the short reach meant many areas would need new cells. Then 3GPP redefined 5G to include almost any new system. Most notoriously, 4G TDD-LTE now is called 5G if a very modest software tweak is added, "5G NR." The software has a very limited effect on performance.

21 of the first 23 "5G" deployments are mid and low-band, with reach comparable to the 4G already in the network. Few new cells are required in the 2.6 GHz band. That's mostly true in the more common 3.5 GHz band, although the data is more limited. 

Ronan Dunne of Verizon confirms the speed of the new "5G" is very close to 4G. 

30% 5G in Korea in 2020 forecast

2 million of the 51 million Koreans bought 5G phones in the first four months and 5 million are expected by the end of 2019. KT forecasts 30% will go 5G by the end of 2020. The only other reliable figure for 5G phones sales is from Huawei, which sold 1 million phones in the first two weeks. Everything else is speculation, usually from limited information. 

From SK, the #1 mobile carrier: We believe that the 5G subscriber mark -- number will exceed the 1 million mark during August and we see that the -- by the end of this year, we will achieve at least 2 million. So it is indeed increasing at a faster pace than we had first expected. And in 2020, considering current trends continue, we expect that number to reach 7 million subscribers.

From KT:  By the end of year 2019, we will see about 10% of 5G subscribers out of its total handset subscribers. And also in light of the broadening of the handset and device lineup and the stabilization of the network, we expect to reach around 30% by 2020.

Ronan Dunne of Verizon: Half our 5G is going to be lousy

Ronan, CEO of Verizon Consumer, finally admitted what was becoming obvious: 5G millimetre wave would cover "significantly less than half of the customers." CEO Vestberg is backing off from his promise to bring mmWave at a gigabit to all of Verizon. 

Instead, most will get about a third the performance of mmWave. Their "5G" connection, "will approximate to a good 4G service. ... The mid-bands and lowers are giving you in the low hundreds." 

Most of Verizon's 30 million millimetre wave locations will be in "large, dense urban environments." Verizon's map will probably look like T-Mobile's: mostly business districts and affluent residential areas. 

My Congressman, Adriano Espaillat, has told me of his anger that "Upper Manhattan is a fibre desert." Will Dunne ignore Harlem and the Bronx?

I hope to get a chance to ask Espaillat about 5G.

 

Sprint 5G Smart Build: Fast and Cheap to ?half the country

John Saw at Sprint, with an extremely limited budget, covered 11% of the US population in April 2019. Simply by upgrading existing cells, he's covered about 20% of New York, (At the top of the map is where I live.)

He hasn't yet reached most cities in the US or the most populous areas of NY, the black areas on the bottom of the illustration. I believe when he upgrades more cells, Sprint will cover more than half the US population.

In mid-band with Massive MIMO, Sprint's 2.5 GHz has reach comparable to the traditional lower bands. Sprint's 1800 MHz covers 95%+ of the city. The 5G coverage will be similar when the other cells in NY are upgraded. 

Sprint's 160 MHz of spectrum at 2.5 GHz is one of the best holdings on earth. Saw already is getting good and sometimes contiguous coverage without adding any new cells.

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US fixed: Likely over 20% in 2023

Could easily be 25%. T-Mobile as part of the Sprint deal committed to selling fixed wireless to 8% of the US. It has guaranteed that 90% of Americans will see mobile broadband service at speeds of at least 100Mbps if the deal is approved.

Goldman Sachs estimates Verizon will sell fixed to about 8% of Americans by then. That's ambitious. It's based on Verizon selling 25% of the market from cable in the ~30M homes Verizon will pass. Most are in the 70% of the US where Verizon has no good landline offering. It is pricing aggressively at $50-70, well under cable's price and offering much higher upstream. Verizon is still moving full speed ahead on mmWave, although Consumer CEO Ronan Dunne recently confirmed many consumers in other locations will be connected at lower speeds in mid and low-band spectrum.

CEO Randall Stephenson of AT&T, who will have a great deal of mmWave capacity to sell in 2021, has specifically said he will have a fixed offering. AT&T does not have landlines in over 60% of the US so will almost definitely sell fixed wireless. It has released no numbers yet, but certainly has plans well into the millions.

If T-Mobile-Sprint goes through, Dish is committed to covering 70% of the US by 2023. The primary product will be fixed wireless and Charlie Ergen is betting $10B he will sell a lot of it. He certainly will sell enough to push up this estimate.

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