5G Funny Numbers: 10M Sign on October, only 5M Phones in November

Ten million Chinese "reserved" 5G phones in the first two weeks of October, a powerful signal of high demand. Huawei thought they could all get phones in October. But the official figures are less than 1M 5G phones in October and ~5M in November.

WTF? It could be an ordinary problem of ramping supply of a new product. It could be the official figures on phone sales are lagging reality by several weeks. 

It might also be that millions aren't following up on their reservations. In October, most 5G phones cost $700-1200. In November, prices fell to $453. Xiaomi just announced a decent 5G phone for $285 (1999 yuan,) starting to ship in January. The Chinese press actively reported the price drop, although the initial supply has been limited. Smart buyers may just be waiting.

But it's also possible the 10M figure was not right. Contrary to Western reports, the major Chinese companies do not routinely lie about things like this. 

A few years back, the Chinese figures for FTTH were hard to believe. But I checked with the chipmakers, who confirmed China was buying that many chips for FTTH.

There's enormous pressure on the telcos to "accelerate" 5G, which was supposed to stay in trials until summer, 2020. They haven't provided any details of the second half of October or of November. Maybe something is in fact wrong.

The ten million figure is prominent in the raised projections for 5G subscribers and I hope it is accurate.

Xiaomi Redmi 5G: $285. The explosion is here.

Xiaomi's first 2020 phone is US$200 cheaper than anything else in the world, half the price of many, and less than a third of the prices in the West. Huawei and China Mobile expected the price to fall under $300 in the summer of 2020. Shipping in January, Xiaomi has moved 6 months before anyone anticipated.

Lu Weibing of Xiaomi is seizing "a historic opportunity" to win market share for the next decade. Huawei has jumped to over 40% market share in China. The low price is a weapon against the Huawei Honor brand, Lu is

"Very confident that K30 will completely crush the V30 of friends. This product must be the turning point between the two brands. We will form a crushing trend."

The Redmi K30 5G uses the new Qualcomm Snapdragon 765G,  priced lower than the 865G in all prior Qualcomm 5G phones. While chip prices are confidential, Qualcomm has reduced the price differential between the 765G and 4G chips. The 4G version of the K30 is $230, only $55 less than the 5G. 

It's a decent phone: 6.7" screen, 64-megapixel camera, 120Hz display, and a 4500 mAh battery. When I told Jennie the specs, she asked, "When will we be able to buy it in the US?"

?$150 by the end of 2020. 

Slumbering giants not needed

Deutsche Telekom wants to take over Orange/FT to become even bigger. Iain Morris reports, "Europe desperately needs telco giants." Actually, DT is already a giant and captures almost all the economies of sale. Like most CEOs, Timotheus Höttges wants a bigger empire. His policy and pr budget is enough to guarantee many echo his call. Does the world, and especially the Internet, need more behemoths? 

When I look at which companies are actually succeeding and investing, medium-sized often telcos do better than giants. The three Koreans, a fraction of the size of Deutsche Telecom, are the world leaders in 5G. Little Switzerland is the European leader in 5G, with relatively small Sunrise already connecting 350 small towns and villages. In the US, the largest 5G offering as I write is from #4 Sprint, although the larger companies will soon come in.

In fiber, Orange and Telefonica Spain are far ahead of the US giants, Verizon and AT&T. The best fiber network in the US is being built in Northern California by Sonic, where a symmetrical gigabit sells for about $50/month.

In the fight for customers, #3 T-Mobile USA has been clobbering AT&T & Verizon for years. In Korean 5G, LG Uplus, the smallest, is gaining market share.

In finances, giant China Mobile is suffering, while relatively small Telstra is one of the most profitable.

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T-Mobile 5G 25 Mbps!! Really. CTO Neville Ray, T-Mobile

Only wireless engineers will believe Neville Ray's sworn statement, "We have publicly announced that we will commence building the T-Mobile 5G network in 30 cities, including New York, Los Angeles, Dallas, and Las Vegas, during 2018. Because 5G-capable devices are not yet available, we do not anticipate offering 5G mobile services until sometime in the first half of 2019. This network build will include approximately xxx cell sites and will provide an average throughput of 25 Mbps."http://bit.ly/NevilleRay

AT&T's 4G network averaged 70 Mbps in May of 2019 and T-Mobile slightly over 50 Mbps. (PC Mag, picture below) It's usually higher now, especially where equipment was upgraded for 5G.) On 4G, PCMag actually tested live service in Manhattan at over 500 Mbps. (Using advanced LTE & LAA.)

25 Mbps average for 5G must be impossible, right. WTF?

What every wireless engineer knows is that low-band 5G is really 4G with some software, 5G NR. 5G NR does almost nothing for performance.

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Samsung, Mediatek Selling 5G Chips

Samsung is now selling the 5G 980 chip to Vivo, the Chinese giant. This means Samsung is now challenging Qualcomm for 5G chip orders rather than only supplying their own phones. The competition will continue to drive 5G phone prices down. By summer, expect $300 phones. By the end of 2020, 5G phones may be as low as $200.

It will be used in the Vivo 5G X30 phone, shipping in December. The rumored price is US$455. It supports both SA and NSA 5G cores, a requirement in China starting in 2020. Vivo hopes to sell 100 million phones in 2020.

Separately, Mediatek is now sampling the Dimensity 1000 5G chip.

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China Mobile 2020: 70-100M 5G, $200 & $300 Phones

China Mobile Vice President Jian Qin says the company expects 70-100 million 5G sales in 2020. Wang Hengjiang, Deputy General Manager of China Mobile Terminal Company predicts 150 million or more 5G phones will be sold in China in 2020.

Prices will go down to US$300 by June or July and ~$200 by the end of the year. Wang Hengjiang also predictedthe scale of the second half of the year will be scaled up. By Q1, there will be several 5G chips available. In the second quarter, less expensive chips should hit the market, allowing the summer drop in phone prices.

By the end of 2020, China Mobile expects to cover between 600 and 700 million people with a 5G network. The 2020 plan is for 600,000-800,00 5G cells.  

These plans are far ahead of anything in the West, but the Chinese carriers have shown they can produce remarkable results. 

Verizon 40 Gig NG-PON2: It works

"It works" Greg Sherill of Verizon confirmed. Verizon has installed thousands of systems five years after first proposing NG-PON2. "The traffic seems to be just fine. What's in the field is working." Video below

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Bernd Hesse explains NG-PON2

Hesse, founder of the NG-PON2 Forum, Broadband Forum Board of Directors Member, BASe Chairman and Senior Director of Standards Marketing and Thought Leadership for Calix, sat down at Calix ConneXions with us and provided a look from the beginning of NG-PON2 to the future. Video below

Vince O'Byrne of Verizon drove the project forward starting in 2014. Verizon had decided that 10 gigs would not be enough for their millimeter wave 5G. Tunable lasers, the key technology, were very expensive but the price was falling.

NG-PON2 uses four frequencies, (wavelengths, lambdas) each with 10 gigabits. Combining them yields 40 gigabits as transmitted, 36 gigabits net. 40 gigabits from the bonded wavelengths is still in the lab and soon will reach the field.

Going forward, using more wavelengths and higher speeds on each will yield 80 to 100 gigabits. Currently, standards groups are considering 8 wavelengths of 25 gigabits each. Research provides a  clear path to much higher speeds. 

Video by Jennie Bourne of Bourne Digital. http://bit.ly/BourneD

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