From the field: Building AT&T's 5G is tough

Gordon Mansfield of AT&T "told [management] that I want every day that’s left in the year ... The equipment is literally coming off production lines and going into the field — we are not even using normal shipping channels.” AT&T is the first in the world to use 39 GHz, a remarkable achievement.

AT&T has one of the best and most experienced senior engineering teams in the world, but the first efforts are struggling. It claims the supplier - probably Ericsson - isn't ready with the equipment in the 39 GHz band. They refuse to provide information on network speed. It may be as low as 250 megabits, half the LTE speed at T-Mobile in Manhattan.

Lessons learned:  

 “Now, in mmWave, it’s a new frontier.  Sometimes you expect the signal to be there and it isn’t, so you have to adjust. As you move through the coverage area, you will be served by different beams, and you have to understand transitions between beams,” said Hristov. “RF engineers have to be hyper-accurate about placing and facing nodes … [because] if you don’t land on the right beam, you won’t get maximum performance.”

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Pai wants 800 MHz for Wi-Fi around 6 GHz

MIMO antennas extend the easily usable frequencies well beyond the 4.9 GHz band. The FCC took the first step with a Notice of Proposed Rulemaking. Claus Hetting of Wi-Fi Now kindly allowed me to reprint his report.

The FCC wants to introduce four new unlicensed subbands aptly named U-NII-5 to U-NII-8. In the case of U-NII-5 and U-NII-7 (a total of 800 MHz) a new scheme called AFC (‘Automated Frequency Control’) will protect some incumbent 6 GHz users (mostly point-to-point microwave links) from harmful interference, the FCC says. In these two subbands the FCC wants to allow the operation of ‘standard-power access points’ equivalent to current rules for U-NII-1 and U-NII-3 subbands.

Four new subbands and (some) new rules 

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England sharing 400 MHz at 3.8 (First Look)

Sharon White at OFCOM is leading Europe to spectrum sharing, setting aside 3.8 GHz to 4.2 GHz, enough to make an enormous difference in carrier capacity. For monopoly spectrum, she is proposing buildout requirements to 90% of the land mass (not population), more rural towers (500), a limit on the maximum spectrum one company can own (37%), and using spectrum auctions to make these happen. The result will be better broadband at a (relatively) modest cost.

She's launched a consultation on 700 MHz & 3.6-3.8 spectrum auctions, including the buildout and tower-building requirements. The goal is an auction in the spring. Mark Jackson reports 

The 700MHz Coverage Obligation

The binding coverage rules mean that up to two winning bidders would each have to, within 4 years of the award:

1. Extend good, outdoor data coverage to at least 90% of the UK’s entire land area within four years of the award.

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AT&T 5G "Live Trial" hiding details. $500 for 5G hot spot

It's great that AT&T announced 5G and is moving forward. Unfortunately, information is so restricted that Mike Dano put quotes around "5G." If AT&T really were ready, they would be shouting from the rooftops. They aren't. Update 12/19 AT&T told Mike Dano they were using only 100 MHz of spectrum and two antennas. That will be much slower than good LTE. Also, people nor businesses can order the service even if they live in the right location. Consumers can only "express interest" and only businesses selected by AT&T qualify.

It refused to give any information about typical performance or basic details like how many homes are covered. I'm inferring that the performance is disappointing, although many are working to change that.

There is no charge for "at least 90 days," guaranteeing no angry customers will ask for their money back. Then they want US$70 for 15 gigabits, as expensive as LTE.

"The $500 hotspot will mostly be run on 4G LTE," Kellen writes. $500 is hundreds more than an LTE hotspot.

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Quarter-speed to half-speed 5G phones from Qualcomm, Verizon, and AT&T

Rick Merritt, one of the world’s best tech reporters, reports from Qualcomm Maui, “Data rates for the first batch of handsets will likely be limited to a few hundred Mbits/s.” The only test results were downloads of 140 megabits to 470 megabits. This is far less than the gigabit expected from millimetre wave.

A world-class engineer assures me the problems will be solved. Unless answers are found quickly, volume rollouts will slip into 2020. In addition, Qualcomm CEO Amon Cristiano confirmed they have no units for the most popular frequency bands, 600 MHz to 1.8 GHz, which require FDD. (Most spectrum from 2.3 GHz up is designated TDD, which is shipping.)

The first phones are slower than decent 4G and less than half what Verizon is delivering to homes. LTE is in the field delivering 500 megabits (T-Mobile, Manhattan and elsewhere,)  For now, 80%+ of “5G” is slower than 4G. Really. The latest 4G lab results reach 1.5-2.0 gigabits. See http://wirelessone.news/10-r/1244-4g-verizon-telstra-2-gigabits Tens of thousands of towers are equipped with "Gig LTE," although there are very few phones.

 "5G Hype Is Out of Control This Week" Sam Rutherford writes. "There was very little substance to be found.

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4G LTE: Telstra 2 gigabits, Singtel 1.5, Verizon 1.45

The newest LTE radios offer peak speeds up to 2 gigabits. With the right phone, you should receive 150-700 megabits down, occasionally more. These are lab results. Actual deployments are a year or two away. Huawei's BANDSpeed will increase that. BandSpeed also is a while away.

Today's best networks in the field peak at 750-1200 megabits. With the latest phones, you will often get speeds of 100-400 megabits and occasionally higher. These lab results suggest LTE speeds can go up 50% to 100% in the next few years.  Uploads are more likely to be 50-150 megabits, unfortunately.

At left are speed tests from PCMag editor Sascha Segan. He achieved over 500 megabits ar a T-Mobile cell site at 45th St. and Third Avenue in Manhattan, as you can see in the illustration. Today, tens of thousands of locations worldwide offer "peak" downloads of a gigabit. 

There is little new technology needed for these speeds, just more channels and additional MIMO.

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Frontier, Windstream bankruptcy predicted by stock price

Windstream's total market cap is US$117 million on sales of US$5 billion. Frontier is valued at US$283 million with sales over US$9 billion. Those prices do not make sense unless the companies are likely to go bust soon.

I am not, repeat not, predicting the bust. I haven't done the research. I have no malice. Repeat: this is not my prediction. I hope this proves wrong.

What I am saying is the investor consensus implies a very high risk that cannot be ignored by regulators.

Government and vendors must have a contingency plan. I'm asking the FCC and state regulators what their plan is. I doubt many have one. I expect few if any will give me a meaningful answer. I'm writing this story as a wake-up call; being unprepared has been very costly in the past.

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DT 5G 3.5GHz: 350-850 gigabits in 100 MHz spectrum

5G is now live in the centre of Warsaw. DT Polska writes me:

In ideal conditions and close proximity to the base station we managed to achieve transfers over 800 Mbps (around 830-850 Mbps) with means reaching current technological limit for a 100MHz wide spectrum.

In “daily-use” cases (farther away from the station, on a street, in our #5G_LAB building) we are registering speeds around 350-500 Mbps, which is really great considering the circumstances.

Important sidenote: while at the moment the 100MHz lets us theoretically reach around 850Mbps, in a couple of months, with future releases of the 5G standard this theoretical limit is likely to double. This means that with proper implementation real-life measurements should also improve.

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