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More Spectrum Than We Need: Sprint Drops Out of Auction

Vint Cerf Megan Smith Marty CooperMarty Cooper is right: If we are efficient, "There is no spectrum shortage and there never will be." Showing there's enough spectrum if used efficiently, Marcelo Claure concludes "[Our] spectrum holdings are sufficient to provide its current and future customers." Claure has ~100 MHz in high frequencies, so much he is thinking of using some of it for backhaul. (The FCC should stop that, and other many wasteful practices, in the name of efficiency. But true efficiency is generally ignored.)   

Cooper, the inventor of the cell phone, was joined by Marconi Fellows A.J. Paulraj, John Cioffi and Vint Cerf in projecting technical advances that could raise wireless capacity 50-100 times. The engineers convinced me until the companies spent $45B in the last auction. That's 3-4 times as much as the experts I respect predicted. I don't think anyone well informed is certain of next year's results.

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40 Million Comcast Gigabit Homes. Really.

jchapmanGigabit (shared) to nearly all of 53M homes and businesses. Comcast is going to upgrade 40% of the U.S. to DOCSIS 3.1, offering a gigabit. Brian's boys are going to start in 2016, probably early, and continue for another year or two. Comcast VP Robert Howald dropped a bombshell. "We're testing it this year. Our intent is to scale it through our footprint through 2016. We want to get it across the footprint very quickly. We're shooting for two years," he said in Mike Dano's Fierce Cable interview. The story was picked up by the Washington Post and a dozen others. Everyone in broadband has known for years gigabit cable was on the way and now the big papers are getting the message.  

"Shared" speeds will be 500+ megabits down 95+% of the time, I predict. That's similar to the 400-700 megabit speeds of AT&T's coming "gigaclear" G.fast fiber to the basement.

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England Tops in Euro Medium/fast Broadband

BT on faster speedsJoe Garner of BT claims Britain is ahead of other big Euro countries in "superfast" broadband. BT deserves credit for offering ~80% of Britain 30 meg or more downstream, a little ahead of Germany and well ahead of France, Spain and Italy. "Superfast" is pure hype. BT's deployment is mostly DSL from their 100,000 street cabinets, typically 30-70 megabits. Unlike Germany, Belgium, Swisscom and Australia, England isn't using vectoring to ~double many connections. Half of the UK is able to get 100 meg or more from cable, as well as nearly 90% of the U.S. ~50 meg would have been superfast in 2007 but is only medium in 2015.

One Garner comment in the Telegraph is offbase. French prices by almost any measurement are considerably lower than Britain. Miles Brignall in the Guardian just wrote "Ripoff Britain: why we pay more for broadband than Europe," with a comparison to France at half the price. Garner's comment, "Britain has the lowest landline, broadband and superfast broadband prices among major economies" is a mistake. The original source, Analysys Mason, had it wrong. It should be corrected by sending a letter to the paper. 

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AT&T paid $17/month extra for video (Datapoint article)

petriConsumers at carriers with fewer than 7M customers wind up paying a high price. At Goldman Sachs, CFO John Stephens suggested major synergies for the DirecTV deal due to “There's about a $17 difference on average between the price the U-verse platform pays for content on an apples-to-apples basis than the DirecTV platform pays. And on 6 million customers, you can get your head around about $100 million a month of expense.” That's an important datapoint to understand the U.S. TV market. Hollywood takes most of the gross income. Seeking Alpha transcript, more below.

Possible implications

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Quantenna's Remarkable 10 Gig WiFi - Spectrum Greedy But Works

10 gig requires a remarkable 160 MHz+ but it makes a great headline. With this 8x8 chipset, realistic speed will head to a gigabit and higher, in a room with just the right walls for the MIMO to work. Update Sept 15. Quantenna writes me they expect production quantities in 3-4 months. 

Speeds through a wall go down severely with any WiFi, but throughput even through walls should be excellent. MU-MIMO - dedicating the 8-12 streams 1, 2 or 4 to an individual device with beamforming - should give each of the devices excellent throughput. Quantenna has distributed samples but production quantities are in the future.

If you have no neighbors and completely uncontested WiFi frequencies, you will sometimes be able to measure a nominal 9 or 10 gigabit WiFi from Quantenna and Freescale's new chips. You'll need an ideal location, with just enough interference to bounce the 12 separate signals but not enough to significantly slow anything down. 160 MHz is about the entire bandwidth of the combined AT&T and Verizon LTE networks, far more than will be available to most of us in most places. So the many MU-MIMO connections will have more practical impact for most of us.   In addition, they are squeezing a heck of a lot of data in, going to a 1024 QAM constellation, needing extraordinary analog circuitry and minimal interference.  

Twenty years ago, Arogyaswami Paulraj discovered using more antennas could multiply the throughput of a wireless network. That day it rained on the Stanford campus and he moved his multi-transmitter experiments indoors. Because the transmitters would be close together, he expected poor results. To his surprise, the separate signals came in clearly. He had invented MIMO.

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Supersonic DOCSIS: 15 Gigabit Cable 2020, 50-80 Gigabits 2030

BlackbirdTom Cloonan of Arris is confident of remarkable speeds. (Video and transcript below). At CableLabs' 2015 summer event he predicted DOCSIS would reach 15 gig (shared) in a few years and 50-80 gig a decade later. 15 gigabits would require using 1.7 GHz and higher speeds would require going to 6GHz and more. Jeff Baumgartner at Multichannel calls this "supersonic DOCSIS." 

"Sound crazy?" Cloonan asks. "Maybe, maybe not." Higher frequencies attenuate quickly in longer cables. If you run fiber to the edge of the drop cable, the loss is modest. At CableLabs, they demonstrated a 6 GHz signal over 50 meters of drop cable. 50 gigabits, here we come.
 
DSL has already done this, going from 1.5 megabit HDSL in 1995 to near gigabit G.fast over 106 GHz in 2015, Cloonan graciously acknowledges.

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Nokia Gives Half of Nokia China to Government to get Alcatel Deal Approved

asbCompensation to be negotiated. SASAC, the State Holding Company, will have 50% - 1 share in the combined Nokia China and Alcatel Shanghai Bell. Yuan Xin will continue as chairman and party secretary. No word yet on whether Luis Martinez-Amago will continue as second in command. Nokia, the European survivor, will have 50% +1 but is unlikely ever to challenge Chinese control. Chinese sales are absolutely crucial to Alcatel and Nokia. They had no real negotiating room and had to take whatever the Chinese offered.

As part of the EU/China deal for a telecom equipment cartel, Alcatel Shanghai Bell and Nokia each have a share of the Chinese market, crucial sales for the struggling companies. In an interview with Jessica Lipsky of EE Times, Alcatel CTO Marcus Weldon notes, "China allows foreign vendors to claim a maximum 11% of the wireless market; Alcatel-Lucent and Nokia each have an 11% share." Whether China will allow the merged company 22% or only 11% is a major factor in the future success of the company, but nothing is decided.

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83% of Wireless Going Wi-Fi

1.6 gigabytes cellular, 8.1 gigabytes Wi-Fi in USA. Hating overage charges, Americans are shifting away from cellular. Strategy Analytics is finding the percent of traffic over Wi-Fi is increasing. That's pretty simple for most people - just don't watch TV when you aren't in Wi-Fi reach. 

SA's data is based on a panel of 3,000 phones, enough for statistical significance if randomly chosen. Given that's it all opt-in, it's likely skewed toward more self-aware users. I'd guess a random panel would be slightly less Wi-Fi centric, perhaps ?75% rather than 83%.

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More Articles ...

  1. Sartre Project: Is Wi-Fi an Existential Threat to Telcos?
  2. USA: Cable adding, telcos shedding
  3. Verizon, Intel: "5G the Free WiFi Killer"
  4. 300 Megabit 3 Band LTE in Korea, Spain
  5. From Lantiq: Intel deal "is great"
  6. Gigabit cable for Montreal, Suddenlink & Alaska
  7. Gigabit of spectrum to Vodafone and Deutsche Telecom
  8. Germany chooses 100-150 megabit 35b DSL
  9. Vultures come out on the Qualcomm-Ikanos deal
  10. $50-60M Ikanos buy brings Qualcomm into DSL
  11. Networks of the world, 2019. A first draft.
  12. 256 Antenna Transmitter & receiver for high frequency
  13. 10% Speed DOCSIS 3.1 to Australia in 2016
  14. 28 top engineers predict 5G
  15. 300 megabits (shared) going to a gigabit across Denmark
  16. Alcatel's Weldon: Governments are splitting the broadband market. We get 11% in China
  17. Fierce: 3 of 5 top 5G Universities are in the U.S.
  18. Adtran hurt badly by loss at AT&T, slowdown at DT
  19. Communication Engineers of the world unite in London, June 8-12
  20. Another Gigahertz of Wi-Fi Spectrum Sought
  21. IEEE Papers on Cognitive Radio
  22. First Look: Google Fi is "increasing" spectrum by ~20%. WTF?
  23. ITU 5G Focus Group wants you!
  24. First Look: 4G to 250M at China Mobile:
  25. Why telco small cells can't cover highways.
  26. "Rules of the road" for unlicensed spectrum
  27. 2022 or later for high GHz 5G
  28. Gig for $25/month in Bakersfield, CA
  29. $40/port VDSL Baby DSLAMs with new Lantiq system
  30. Review: Millimeter Wave Wireless Communications
  31. Death of Gigaom: This one really hurts
  32. 10 GHz spectrum for many gigabits
  33. Brooklyn in April is the Center of the 5G Universe
  34. 10 Gig WiFi demo from Quantenna
  35. 300 Megabit 3 Band LTE in Korea
  36. John Cioffi: WI-Fi’s extraordinary future: The Impact on Wireless Connectivity
  37. Gigabit WiFi: Broadcom, Qualcomm, Marvell & MediaTek chasing Quantenna
  38. 10 Gig - repeat, 10 gig - to 800K apartments in Hong Kong
  39. Verizon, T-Mobile, Ericsson Want WiFi Spectrum for LTE
  40. Goodbye, Lantiq. Hello, Intel

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