Lenovo's 5G PC Works on Verizon for Extra $30/month

The new executive status symbol is a PC with a 5G modem built-in. You won't have to connect to Wi-Fi. Verizon is one of the first to market, which adds $30 to your monthly wireless build. It will happily sell you the Lenovo in the picture for $1400. If you don't use Verizon wireless, the charge is $90.

Bevin Fletcher reports Lenovo had challenges adding 5G millimeter wave to the laptop and uses 9 antennas. Verizon refuses to provide any information on millimeter coverage; it's almost certainly less than 15% of the U.S. but centers on business districts.

Telcos originally expected many people would pay extra to connect tablets and PCs. So far, the signups have been very disappointing. Wi-Fi keeps getting better and is enough for most people.

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BT's KPMG Auditor: We don't trust the numbers

"BT Group plc did not maintain effective internal control over financial reporting as of 31 March 2020 because of the effect of material weaknesses." That's an amazing statement from KPMG, which very rarely reports the common client deficiencies. 

BT fired the CEO and the stock is down 75%. With hindsight, I see it was a terrible mistake not to emulate FT and Telefonica Spain moving quickly to fiber. (Both countries are more than half covered.) CityFibre has raised billions and is taking customers. Others, including Liberty Global cable, are also investing. BT is going very slowly on 5G as well. Earnings are under pressure and need a close watch.

Ericsson is also abusing the accounting rules. It is taking a write-off on its low bids for China 5G contracts although CEO Börje Ekholm said the contract would be profitable. Low bids to win the initial contract and lock in a customer are a common practice. Write-offs are intended for uncommon events. 

Ekholm's move suggests Ericsson is struggling to meet profit targets.  

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No 5G Phone? China May Count You as 5G Anyway

For several months, I've been reporting that the 5G "subscriptions" at Chinese telcos added up to much more than the total of 5G phones. China Unicom has now confirmed that they are counting as "5G" many people who are using 4G gear. 

The discrepancy should narrow because half a dozen decent 5G phones cost between US$197 & $280. The monthly cost for a 30-gigabyte service at China Unicom just fell 30% to 88 yuan, about US$13.

China Mobile claimed 55,000,000 "5G packages" at the end of May. China Telecom has more than 20,000,000 and China Unicom won't say. The number of actual 5G users end of May was probably ~50,000,000 among the three carriers. MIIT released a figure of 36,000,000 for the end of April and 15,000,000 5G phones shipped in May. Even the reduced Chinese figures are twice the total in the rest of the world.

China's 5G lead remains enormous. China Mobile at the end of May had 140,000 5G bases. China Unicom and Telecom are sharing 130,000. They are building over 10,000 per week. That is far more than twice the total 5G sites in the West. 

MIIT has restored the original goal of 600,000 in 2020 and expects 180,000,000 phones to ship. China Mobile and the China Telecom/China Unicom team will each do 300,000, with China Broadcast likely to add more by the end of 2020.. 

 

UNISOC/Ziguang Zhanrui & Hisense: YA 5G competitor

UNISOC is now shipping the T7510 5G, putting more downward pricing on chips. The Hisense F50 is in limited production with that chip, sold out on jd.com but presumably more available soon.  (Announcement below.) 5G phone prices are dipping below US$200, although Hisense is currently pricing at $500. See 5G phones fall to US$192, raising 2020 estimate to 210 million

Both companies are state-backed and hence have the resources to continue in the current tough market. UNISOC (formerly known as Spectrum) is part of Tsinghua Unigroup, which has received billions of state funding. It once had a production deal with Intel but is now on its own.

Hisense is a US$35 billion company and one of the world's largest makers of TVs (pictured,) refrigerators, and air conditioners. It goes back to 1969 and was one of the first to import foreign technology in the 1980s. It's been a modest producer of phones and hopes to continue into the 5G era.

15 million 5G phones shipped in China in May, 46% of the rebounding market.  

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5G phones fall to US$192, raising 2020 estimate to 210 million

The Huawei Honor X10 5G, pictured, sold out almost immediately at the US$147 price, But the Xiaomi K30 5G was still on sale at US$192 as I write, down from US$228. Oppo, Vivo, Realme, and ZTE all have models under US$280. These are fine phones, about 6.5" and with 3 or 4 cameras. (618 is a special sales holiday at jd.com and Alibaba. Prices tumble and sales are many billions. Amazon's "Prime Day" is a copy.)

13 phone makers are fighting for a market that can only really support 4 or 5. Xiaomi set off the price with a US$285 announcement in December, one reason I put out the 210 million forecast, twice as high as most others. Even the most aggressive didn't expect prices of $200-250 before late in the year. 

Component prices have been tumbling. MediaTek and Qualcomm have been slashing prices on their new mid-range 5G chips, while UNISOC/  is now also shipping chips. BOE in particular has a massive capacity for screens. Qualcomm has new RF front end components, forcing the traditional RF vendors to fight for market share. Sony has a billion-dollar camera plant that must keep busy. 

5G, disappointing in the West, is exploding in China. 15 million phones in May, 10,000 bases upgraded per week, price dropped from ~$18 to ~$13/month. China almost certainly will hit its 2020 goal of 150 million. The 5G iPhone with 5 nm processor going into production in July, should be a big seller in U.S. late in the year. 

ARM X1 Means Faster Wireless Chips Yearend (First look)

"Impressive" is Linley Gwennap's comment on the new ARM Cortex-X1 design that will appear in top chips late in 2020. The target is "a 30% gain in per-clock performance (IPC)." Nearly all mobile phone processors are built around ARM designs, from Apple to Huawei. 

TSMC already is producing millions of 5 nm chips for this year's iPhone and probably for Huawei as well, The advanced process reduces energy, heat, and chip area. That allows ARM to design a larger but more robust chip.

Chips with the X1 design will benchmark 5-25% higher, with an additional boost from the 5 nm process. Speed like this is great marketing and good for gamers, but makes little practical difference for most of what we do. The same is true of 5G itself; very few practical applications can use more than the 75 Mbps common in 4G.

Linley is one of the best chip analysts in the world, someone other experts turn to when they need help. You definitely should subscribe to his free newsletter at https://bit.ly/2XMN9Xb

 

Apple 5G "Incredible." (Informed opinion)

Skyworks CEO Liam Griffin may already have an Apple 5G phone. (Production is beginning, although the big ramp is late. Some July-August chip orders have been delayed two or three months. ) 

"The 5G performance is going to be incredible. Consumers are going to line up to get it. It's going to be the biggest incremental performance change that we've seen in cellular." [mmWave 5G will often be a gigabit. However, mmWave will be a minority of locations. Low-band "5G" will be slower than decent 4G. ed]

Skyworks, a $15 billion chipmaker, is the key supplier of the front end radio parts for Apple. Just about everything on the phone except the camera and the display has to work well with the radio front end, so he's been briefed in depth.

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Biggest Chip Tool Maker May Produce in Singapore to Evade U.S. China War

Gary Dickerson, CEO of Applied Materials, pointed out to investors they might assemble their equipment in Singapore to evade fallout from U.S. sanctions. China is the largest purchaser of chip gear today and has committed over US$100 billion to chipmaking. The world #1 foundry, TSMC, doesn't want to lose orders from Huawei, which buys about $5 billion each year. I'm sure it would prefer that Applied sells it Singapore gear. TSMC needs more flexibility to respond to whatever comes next from the U.S.

Dickerson is confident the U.S. rules will have "minimal impact on our business." His CFO, Dan Durn, added, "We think there's a path forward on this based on our discussions with the ecosystem where it doesn't impact our expectations around the business."

Sensible businessmen from Europe to California are finding ways to protect their businesses from current and possible future U.S. restrictions.

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