China June & H1 2020: 63M 5G phones, 100M contracts

China shipped 63 million 5G phones domestically in the first half of the year, including 17 million in June. The phone figure is from CAICT, a government agency with no reason to underestimate. That's a remarkable achievement, more than twice as high as the total in the entire rest of the world. (15-25 million, details soon to follow.) It does not need puffing up. China is on track to easily reach the 150 million plan for yearend 2020.

However, China Mobile reports 70 million "5G contracts" up almost 15 million from May and almost 40 million since March. China Telecom reports 33 million, up ~8 million from May and 21 million from March. China Unicom doesn't report 5G figures but is about half China Telecom. "Contracts" are ~115 million. 4G & 5G contracts are the same price, so apparently many people are choosing "5G" contracts even if they don't have 5G phones.

One side effect of the discrepancy is that some figures for the global number of 5G subscribers are inaccurate. A reputable analyst firm put out a figure of 63.6 million 5G users for March, which was picked up by many. I'm almost sure it included the inflated figure of "contracts," as I pointed out to them. Word had circulated in the industry of the discrepancy before they released the figure, so I was surprised. The adjusted global figure for March should probably be ~45 million, 

I was surprised they would not back up or correct an apparent error. "I make many mistakes," the butler said.

Currently, I'm researching whether I had a major error thinking mid-band 5G would be a major boost to capacity. We're starting to get data suggesting that indoor performance is awful. With indoor a large majority of wireless, if the results are confirmed the capacity boost from mid-band 5G will be much lower than in some analysis reports I've written. Data very welcome.   

 

 

5G: 17M June in China. On track for 150M 2020

Good 5G phones in China cost US$230-260, Monthly service is mostly $13-23, the same price as 4G. 60% of phones sold in China are 5G, a rate going up every month.

5G promotion is ubiquitous, with almost all tech pubs doing several raving articles each week. Most are bs. 5G just isn't good enough to have the claimed impact on industry and the economy.

According to official CAICT figures, below, 63.6 million 5G phones shipped in the first 6 months of 2020, as well as 10-15 million in 2019. (Update July 22: Review of 2019 figures suggest this number, from the telcos, may be inflated) Some are in dealer stock or transit, so the actual number of 5G users at the end of June is 65-70 million. Adding 17 million each month from July to December would take the year-end total to about 170M, three or four times more than the entire rest of the world.

All 5G in China today is mid-band, with typical download speeds of 100-500 Mbps. China Mobile has 160 MHz of mid-band spectrum. The joint network of China Telecom & China Unicom has 200 MHz. Western carriers, except for T-Mobile, have 100 MHz or less, hence lower speeds.

Background: Last June, Minister Miao Wei told the telcos to "accelerate" 5G. This is putting China so far ahead of the West it has already won the (almost meaningless) "race to 5G." It also has been a shot in the arm for Huawei, which increased sales the first six months by 13% despite the U.S. blockade. 

Read more ...

Finally, Data: US 5G slower than Canada's 4G. Believe it

The average speed of over 10,000 Open Signal tests of U.S. 5G was under 60 Mbps.* The average speed of 4G at Bell Canada last fall was 70 Mbps. At Canadian #2 Telus, it was 75 Mbps. The methodology was essentially the same. The results are consistent with testimony by T-Mobile's CTO Neville Ray; Verizon's Glenn Wellbrock; and just about every engineer building networks. (A CTO has just turned on 5G at a major carrier and tells me off the record their 4G is currently better.)

Ray testified to the FCC that in theory 5G could be 20% faster in low-band and 50% faster in mid-band. For now, 4G is far ahead until 5G adds LAA and other tools already working in 4G. Wellbrock pointed out that in these frequencies, neither 5G NR nor any other software can add much to capacity. 4G is close to the Shannon Limit already. Higher performance without more spectrum or antennas would break the laws of physics. 

Next time a pundit or politician talks of the very high speeds of 5G, ask them what is the actual speed of the 5G being deployed? Be ready with those numbers. 

Open Signal "found no significant improvement in 5G latency over 4G." It will be years before 5G low latency is widely deployed - and 4G will be almost as low by then.

Read more ...

Live conferences virtually impossible where Corona problems continue

Scott Wallsten included some disheartening analysis in his announcement the TPI Aspen event had to be virtual, even if delayed to October. "Let’s assume that people can converse meaningfully when six feet apart in a space that is unlikely to be quiet. Two people need to stand six feet apart. Easy enough. A conversation with three people requires standing in a triangle with six-foot sides, requiring about 15.6 square feet of floor space. A four-person conversation requires a square with 6 foot sides requiring 36 square feet. As more people enter the group, the shape becomes circular and the square footage required for that conversation increases with the square of the radius." 

He adds, "Social distancing in a group that is together for a multiple-day conference is unrealistic even if it is possible. Social distancing is intended to keep people apart. Conferences are intended to bring people together. People want to talk and mingle. It’s human nature and one of the benefits of in-person events."

The TPI event always features outstanding speakers, including academics the policy people can learn from. I would go every year if I could afford the airfare. 

Read more ...

Madagascar, Vodacom get 5G pr

Any carrier, anywhere in the world, can call Huawei, Ericsson, or Nokia. Three months later, the telco can turn on something called 5G. Telma, the largest carrier in Madagascar, called in Ericsson and has turned on "5G" in Antananarivo. As you can see in the release below, there is no data on speed, latency, frequency, number of upgraded cells, or coverage %. 

As usual, the pr department needs better fact-checking. In the release below, Telma claims it is the first in Africa. But Vodacom announced a small 5G "deployment" in May.

The only substantial 5G deployment is Rain in South Africa, which had 447 towers upgraded in April. It has over 4,000 4G sites and 1500 are scheduled for 5G by the end of 2021.

It turns out 5G NR is not important for Africa. 4G/5G Massive MIMO and mid-band spectrum are the path to the capacity needed. See 5X Advance for Africa with Massive MIMO, Spectrum 

 

Read more ...

Latest US Blockade: Inspur, world #3 server maker

Intel has stopped shipping to one of its largest customers in the world, China's #1 server manufacturer, Inspur. (The dark blue in the chart.) The US doesn't like the ties between Inspur & the Chinese military and put them on a blacklist. Intel told Tom's Hardware it expects to be able to resume some shipments within weeks, but the details are unclear.

Over the next 5 years, Inspur will almost certainly switch to using processors that are not subject to the US blockade. Huawei's Kunpeng matches Intel performance in the data center and other Chinese vendors are moving forward on RISC-V. As I've reported, rational companies worldwide are now designing US parts out of cars and almost everything else.

The war on China will cost a significant part of future US exports.

 

5G #fail. 85% no 5G in "90% covered" Korea

The Open Signal data is devastating for 5G. The companies claim over 90% coverage. More than 10,000 participated in Open Signal's 5G tests in May. They only connected to 5G ~15% of the time. The only explanation I can think of is that the indoor performance of Korea's 5G mid-band is awful and much worse than I and many others expected. (Left and below)

I've been asking anyone with data for indoor figures but only getting anecdotes. What I was told was that the mid-band 5G had decent indoor coverage. I should have been much more skeptical in the absence of data. Better phone antennas, improved software for MIMO, and other technologies are coming. 

But if this data proves out, 5G offers much less than almost everyone except Dean Bubley expected.

Read more ...

"Churn Approaches Zero with Fiber" Carl Russo

"Fixed wireless will sometimes be the right choice and Calix's software supports it. But our telco customers with fiber will lose very few customers. If they provide strong, customer-focused service, no one will have a reason to switch. It's only a slight exaggeration to say customers only churn if they move or die." Russo adds, "This is provided the service provider chooses to “own” the subscriber experience.  A service provider that invests in fiber … but doesn’t further invest in an excellent subscriber experience … is still vulnerable."

Fiber today is routinely a gigabit; ten gigabits add little to the cost, although the demand is unproven so far.

It's been clear for several years that fiber is the right choice in most parts of the developed world where competition matters. Darren Entwhistle at Telus, Canada's #2, has been building fiber home for years because the numbers are very favorable. The reduction in churn and the savings in operating costs pay off the higher cost of fiber in most locations.

France Telecom, Telefonica Spain, and Bell Canada have proven the same.

Read more ...